The bond market yield continues to decline, and the central bank reminds institutions to strengthen the stability of bond investment. The reporter learned that on December 18th, the People's Bank of China held talks with some financial institutions that had aggressive trading in the current bond market, and made requirements to relevant institutions, including: closely monitoring their own interest rate risk and other risk situations, improving investment research capabilities, and strengthening bond investment stability; Conduct investment transactions in accordance with laws and regulations. In addition, according to the reporter's understanding, the central bank has recently severely investigated and dealt with a group of institutions suspected of lending accounts, disrupting market prices, interest transmission, internal control deficiencies and other violations. At the same time, it is comprehensively investigating clues of violations, and will maintain regular law enforcement inspections in the future, with zero tolerance for illegal and irregular behavior in the bond market. Since December, with the help of multiple factors, the yield of treasury bond has accelerated to decline. From December 6, the yield of the 10-year treasury bond dropped from 2% to 1.7050% in seven working days. On December 17, the yield of active bonds of 10-year treasury bond bonds hovered between 1.7050% and 1.7175%. Zhang Xu, Chief Fixed Income Analyst at Everbright Securities, stated in an interview with reporters that the recent decline in bond yields has been too fast. "Recently, the yield of 10-year treasury bond has been lower than DR007 (the 7-day repo rate pledged by inter-bank deposit financial institutions with interest rate bonds) at the short end of the yield curve, and this curve is obviously abnormal," said Zhang Xu. The market quickly responded to the interview news. Wind data shows that the long-term yield of inter-bank spot bonds has accelerated to rise, the yield of 7-year and 10-year treasury bond bonds has risen 2-3 basis points, the 7-year "24 interest bearing treasury bond bonds 18" has reported 1.65%, the 10-year "24 interest bearing treasury bond 11" has reported 1.74%, and the yield of 30-year treasury bond bonds "24 special treasury bond 06" has expanded to 4.1 basis points, returning to 2%. At the same time, as of the closing on the 18th, most of the treasury bond bond futures had fallen, with the 30-year main contract down 0.44%, the 10-year main contract down 0.10%, the five-year main contract down 0.02%, and the two-year main contract flat. Industry insiders believe that the speed of the current market trend is too fast, and the space for further decline in bond yields is relatively limited. Zhang Xu stated that in the medium to long term, the price trend of bonds is mainly determined by investors' expectations of monetary policy and economic fundamentals, and the most fundamental factor affecting monetary policy is still economic fundamentals. In recent times, the economic performance and market expectations have improved compared to July and August, and the current valuation of the bond market is not cheap. Although overall, we are optimistic about the bond market next year, the recent decline in bond yields has been too fast, and we need to pay attention to controlling duration risk
Edit:He Chuanning Responsible editor:Su Suiyue
Source:Economic Information Daily
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