The profound impact of artificial intelligence on China's economic development
2024-11-20
The Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed to strengthen key common technologies, cutting-edge leading technologies, modern engineering technologies, and disruptive technological innovation. Artificial intelligence, as the most widely applicable key common technology, is the most cutting-edge leading technology in the world today, and also the most disruptive technology with the strongest substitutability, playing a leading role in the modern engineering technology group. Accelerating the innovation and application of artificial intelligence technology has long-term strategic significance for promoting high-quality economic development, economic structural transformation and upgrading, and the construction of a modern industrial system in China. Artificial intelligence is a new driving force that leads the high-quality development of China's economy. Currently, in the unprecedented global changes, artificial intelligence has ushered in a period of breakthroughs and concentrated outbreaks of innovative achievements. The latest achievements in artificial intelligence mainly focus on generative artificial intelligence, and the future direction of evolution is super artificial intelligence. Artificial intelligence technology belongs to the category of general-purpose technology, which can link, penetrate, and empower all things. Its high connectivity, strong penetration, and spatiotemporal characteristics in computing power, algorithms, and data are unparalleled by any previous technological revolution. If the previous technological revolutions in history brought about the release and liberation of the human body and organs, this artificial intelligence revolution is releasing and liberating human brain and intelligence, which will have a comprehensive, profound, and sustained impact on human production, life, and ecology. As a strategic technology leading the new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation, artificial intelligence not only has a strong spillover effect, but also has a profound impact on economic development in all aspects, all chains, and all cycles. Accelerating the development of artificial intelligence technology and industry can provide new impetus for China's high-quality development. Artificial intelligence technology involves a vast and lengthy industrial chain, and is complemented by technologies such as cloud computing and big data, driving the "multiplier effect" of the artificial intelligence industry through its "circuitous production mode", such as superposition and multiplication. In terms of chip manufacturing alone, the chip production line involves over 50 segmented industries and 2000-5000 processes. The "10000 card cluster" of parallel computing is becoming a standard configuration for artificial intelligence big model companies, driving the industrialization and scaling of intelligent computing power, algorithms, and data, and promoting the rapid development of the artificial intelligence industry. In the past three years, the growth rate of China's AI core industry has reached 33.3%, 18% and 13.9% respectively, and the scale of the AI core industry will reach 578.4 billion yuan in 2023. It is estimated that by 2030, the scale of China's AI core industry will exceed 1 trillion yuan, and the scale of related industries will exceed 10 trillion yuan. The development of the artificial intelligence industry is not only reflected in the core industry of artificial intelligence, but also in the development of the digital economy with its strong spillover effects. From 2012 to 2023, the scale of China's digital economy increased from 11.2 trillion yuan to 53.9 trillion yuan, with an average annual growth rate of 15.3%. The proportion of digital economy in GDP increased from 21.6% to 42.8%. In 2023, the contribution rate of digital economy growth to GDP growth was as high as 66.5%, becoming a powerful new driving force for "stable growth" under the new normal of the economy, and playing an important role in the current economic development under the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock, and weakened expectations. With the advent of the era of artificial intelligence, the three pillars of consumption, investment, and exports will be stimulated with new vitality, exerting a strong and lasting driving force on the overall social demand. A series of new consumption such as smartphones, smart cars, and smart homes have promoted consumption upgrading and driven sustained growth in consumer demand. Artificial intelligence will bring a new wave of "mass innovation and entrepreneurship", and "new infrastructure" will directly stimulate the continuous growth of investment demand. Artificial intelligence empowers the rapid development of cross-border e-commerce and digital trade, facilitates the "going global" of goods and services, promotes the increase of export demand, and lays a strong economic foundation for the comprehensive construction of a socialist modernized country. Artificial intelligence is a booster to accelerate the transformation and upgrading of China's economic structure. With the development of the economy, the upgrading of consumption and technological progress will inevitably lead to the upgrading of industrial structure. With the adjustment of residents' income structure, the demand structure is constantly shifting from primary demand to advanced demand, and the industrial structure is also manifested as a transformation from the primary industry to the secondary industry and then to the tertiary industry. From 2012 to 2023, the proportion of China's primary industry in the total economy has decreased from 9.1% to 7.1%, the proportion of the secondary industry has decreased from 45.4% to 38.3%, and the proportion of the tertiary industry has increased from 45.5% to 54.6%, reflecting the continuous rationalization of the industrial structure. From the perspective of technological progress effects, the upgrading of industrial structure is reflected in the continuous improvement of technological content in various industrial sectors, the transformation of leading industries from traditional technology industries with lower technological levels to modern technology industries and high-tech industries with higher technological levels, and the transformation of industrial structure from labor-intensive industries to capital intensive industries and then to technology intensive industries. Since 2013, the contribution of labor and capital to economic growth in China has been continuously declining, while the contribution of total factor productivity to economic growth has continued to rise, mostly due to the improvement of total factor productivity in the digital economy, reflecting the continuous trend of industrial structure upgrading. The development of artificial intelligence has profoundly changed the paradigm of technological research and development, greatly improving the efficiency of scientific discoveries and inventions in basic research fields. Original and disruptive technological innovations have emerged in applied science and engineering fields, providing a strong technological foundation for industrial upgrading. Artificial intelligence optimizes the combination of workers, labor materials, and labor objects, digitizes the entire production system of enterprises' "people, machines, materials, methods, environment, and measurement", greatly improves production efficiency and transaction efficiency, and breaks through the limitations of time and space, empowers the organic connection of various production links, promotes the formation of customized production methods, realizes the digital transformation and intelligent upgrading of enterprises, and lays a micro foundation for industrial structure upgrading. From an industrial perspective, artificial intelligence technology continues to give birth to various new technologies, industries, formats, and models. Under the new technological and economic paradigm, the core industry and its industrial chain of artificial intelligence have become a technology intensive "leading goose" industrial cluster chain. Through technology diffusion and industrial linkage effects, it helps accelerate the deep integration process of artificial intelligence and the real economy, achieve industrial intelligence, and promote economic structural transformation and upgrading. Artificial intelligence is a catalyst for improving China's modern industrial system. As the most cutting-edge key common technology in contemporary times, artificial intelligence can provide a high-precision and cutting-edge technological foundation for China's modern industrial system. From a practical perspective, almost all industries, whether they are emerging industries such as new generation information technology, new energy, new materials, high-end equipment, new energy vehicles, green environmental protection, civil aviation, shipbuilding and marine engineering equipment, or future industries such as metaverse, brain computer interfaces, quantum information, humanoid robots, generative artificial intelligence, biomanufacturing, new energy storage, and future displays (such as holographic displays and retina displays), directly or indirectly include artificial intelligence technology in their technological systems. The scenarization, industrialization, and scaling of artificial intelligence technology will drive the rapid development of China's emerging and future industries, and enhance the international competitiveness of China's industries. The deep integration of digital technology and traditional industries will bring vitality to traditional industries. For example, vigorously promoting smart agriculture such as "unmanned farms", accelerating the development of intelligent manufacturing such as "black light factories", and advanced research and development of various service robots such as elderly care robots and medical robots not only help improve production and operation efficiency, but also help solve social "bottlenecks" caused by negative population growth, aging, and low birth rates. Both intelligent industrialization and industrial intelligence rely on the strong foundation of digital infrastructure. Therefore, it is necessary to apply the latest achievements of AI to specific industries and industrial chains in a timely manner, cultivate and expand emerging industries, layout and build future industries, transform and upgrade traditional industries, ensure the integrity, progressiveness and safety of the industrial system, and improve the modern industrial system. It is necessary to build a high-speed ubiquitous, integrated, interconnected, secure and efficient digital infrastructure, including network connection facilities, sensing facilities, computing power facilities, data centers, satellite communication and quantum communication facilities, etc. At the same time, traditional infrastructure such as power grids, railways, and airports also require digital upgrades and replacements. Advancing the construction of digital infrastructure and accelerating the digital transformation of traditional infrastructure can provide a strong "foundation" support for China's modern industrial system and its operation. In this artificial intelligence revolution, China must firmly grasp the strategic initiative, advance the layout of artificial intelligence technology research and application, promote the deep integration of artificial intelligence innovation chain with industrial chain, capital chain, and talent chain, accelerate the development of intelligent industrialization and industrial intelligence, form an open innovation ecosystem with global competitiveness, and win new national competitive advantages. (New Society)
Edit：Luo yu Responsible editor：Jia jia
Source：study times
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