CPI increased by 0.3% year-on-year. Overall, the consumer market remained stable in October
2024-11-11
On November 9th, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that in October, the national CPI (Consumer Price Index) increased by 0.3% year-on-year and decreased by 0.3% month on month; PPI (Producer Price Index) decreased by 2.9% year-on-year and 0.1% month on month. Dong Lijuan, Chief Statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that in October, the overall operation of the consumer market was stable. The overall fluctuation of international commodity prices has declined, but under the influence of factors such as the implementation of a package of incremental policies, the demand for some industrial products in China has recovered. In the future, as the policy effects continue to show, prices are expected to further stabilize. The year-on-year increase in CPI has slightly declined. In October, the overall operation of the consumer market remained stable, with food prices falling from high levels. In addition, with the decline in gasoline prices, CPI has decreased month on month, and the year-on-year increase has slightly declined Dong Lijuan said. From a month on month perspective, the CPI decreased by 0.3% in October, remaining unchanged from the previous month. Among them, the change in food prices from a 0.8% increase last month to a 1.2% decrease, which is lower than the average level of the same period in the past decade, is the main factor affecting the month on month decline in CPI. The clear weather is conducive to the production, storage, and transportation of fresh food. Coupled with the significant price increases caused by extreme weather conditions in the early stage, the prices of pork, fresh vegetables, aquatic products, and fresh fruits have decreased by 3.7%, 3.0%, 2.0%, and 1.0% month on month, respectively. The total impact on CPI has decreased by about 0.20 percentage points month on month, accounting for about 70% of the total CPI decrease Dong Lijuan analyzed that. From a year-on-year perspective, the CPI rose by 0.3% in October, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. In the food industry, the prices of fresh vegetables, pork, and fresh fruits have increased by 21.6%, 14.2%, and 4.7% respectively, with all increases falling back; In non food sectors, energy prices decreased by 5.1%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, with gasoline prices dropping by 10.7%. In October, the core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, slightly rebounded, rising by 0.2% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Looking ahead to the future trend of prices, Sheng Laiyun, Deputy Director of the National Bureau of Statistics, recently stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that the economy will continue to rebound, especially with the implementation of a package of incremental policies, which will drive up prices of related products and industries. In addition, in winter, the demand for pork and other food products will increase, and with the weakening of last year's tail up factor, CPI will continue to rise moderately in the fourth quarter, and PPI decline will continue to narrow. The month on month decline in PPI has narrowed for two consecutive months. "In October, the overall volatility of international commodity prices declined, but due to factors such as the effective implementation of a package of incremental policies, the demand for some industrial products in China has recovered, and the month on month decline in PPI has significantly narrowed Dong Lijuan said that in the future, with the continuous manifestation of policy effects, prices are expected to further stabilize. From a month on month perspective, PPI decreased by 0.1% in October, narrowing the decline by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month, and narrowing for two consecutive months. Among them, the price of production materials has changed from a month on month decrease of 0.8% to a month on month increase of 0.1%. The implementation of a package of incremental policies, such as expanding domestic demand, has shown significant results, leading to an improvement in construction demand and a rebound in prices of steel, cement, and other goods. The demand for coal in some non electricity industries and heating coal in northern regions has increased, and the prices of coal mining and washing industries have changed from a 1.3% month on month decrease in September to a 0.1% month on month increase in October Dong Lijuan analyzed that. From a year-on-year perspective, PPI decreased by 2.9% in October, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. According to estimates, in the year-on-year change of -2.9% in PPI in October, the tail effect was about -0.5 percentage points, and the new impact of price changes this year is about -2.4 percentage points. Although the overall fluctuation of international commodity prices has declined, with the accelerated promotion of the "dual" and "dual new" policies, coupled with the solid progress of the "three major projects" of affordable housing construction, "dual-use" public infrastructure construction, and urban village renovation, the upward trend of economic recovery has been further consolidated, and the demand for some industrial products in China has recovered Liu Fang, a researcher at the Market and Price Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, said. (New Society)
Edit：Yao jue Responsible editor：Xie Tunan
Source：China Securities Journal
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