Incremental funds borrowed from 'base' to enter the market, with the largest ETF exceeding 430 billion yuan
2024-10-10
The ETF market has made a historic breakthrough again - as of October 8th, the management scale of Huatai Bairui CSI 300 ETF has exceeded 430 billion yuan, setting a new historical high. In the two trading days after the National Day holiday, the ETF market continued to see massive trading volume. On October 8th and 9th, the total trading volume of the ETF market exceeded 500 billion yuan for two consecutive trading days, which means that after the holiday, the trading volume of the ETF market has reached the trillion level, and incremental funds are borrowing "funds" into the market. The average daily trading volume of the ETF market in the first nine months of this year was only 129.139 billion yuan, which is significantly higher compared to the previous period. According to the latest data, as of October 8th, the management scale of Huatai Bairui CSI 300 ETF has exceeded 400 billion yuan, reaching 430.27 billion yuan. Among stock ETFs, 8 ETFs had a trading volume of over 10 billion yuan on October 8th and 9th, including ETFs tracking indices such as Sci Tech 50, Hang Seng Technology, and ChiNext Index. After the holiday, E Fund's ChiNext ETF continued to rank first in terms of transaction volume, with a total transaction volume of over 80 billion yuan in two days, exceeding the total transaction volume of the entire September. The Huaxia Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Board 50 ETF also showed a significant increase in volume compared to last month, with a total transaction volume of 53.596 billion yuan in two days. On October 9th, the A-share market experienced a volatile pullback, and the ETF market also fell in sync. In this context, there are still some ETFs that have seen a significant increase in volume. Statistics show that a total of 15 ETFs have seen a transaction volume increase of over 1 billion yuan compared to October 8th, with 8 achieving gains. Except for the Haifutong CSI Short term Financing ETF, all of them are themed ETFs related to artificial intelligence and semiconductors. Among the ETFs that saw a significant increase in volume, four semiconductor themed ETFs including Guolian Anzhong Securities All Index Semiconductor ETF, Huaxia Guozheng Semiconductor Chip ETF, Guotai CES Semiconductor Chip ETF, and Penghua Guozheng Semiconductor Chip ETF hit the daily limit up for two consecutive trading days after the holiday. It is worth noting that most of these funds' heavy holdings are individual stocks on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, with a limit of 20% for price fluctuations. Currently, four ETFs still have a certain discount rate after consecutive limit up periods. The members of the ETF "Billion Dollar Club" are constantly expanding. In addition to the Huatai Bairui CSI 300 ETF, the size of the E Fund CSI 300 ETF has also exceeded 200 billion yuan, becoming the second ETF to break through the 200 billion yuan mark. In addition, the scale of products such as Huaxia CSI 300 ETF, Huaxia SSE 50 ETF, Jiashi CSI 300 ETF, and Southern CSI 500 ETF all exceed 100 billion yuan. Why are broad-based ETFs favored? The reporter noticed that among the stock ETFs with a scale of over 10 billion, broad-based ETFs (ETFs that track size indices) occupy an absolute dominant position. Currently, almost all of the larger ETF products in the market are broad-based ETFs. So, what exactly makes broad-based ETFs so popular in the market? A market insider from a public fund company in Shanghai stated that the advantages of broad-based ETFs are reflected in multiple aspects: firstly, risk diversification. Wide base ETFs typically track a wide range of market indices such as the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, which cover multiple industries and a large number of listed companies. Through a single product, investors can cover a wide range of market exposures, effectively reducing the risks brought by individual stock volatility. Secondly, the cost is low. Compared to actively managed funds, broad-based ETFs have lower management fees. As a passive management product, broad-based ETFs only need to track specific indices without complex market analysis and frequent trading, allowing investors to obtain market average returns at a lower cost. Thirdly, it has strong liquidity. Wide base ETFs are listed on exchanges, allowing investors to buy and sell in real-time like trading stocks. Compared with traditional funds, broad-based ETFs have higher liquidity, allowing investors to adjust their positions at any time according to market changes and improve the efficiency of fund utilization. The fourth is high transparency. Wide end ETFs publicly disclose their investment portfolios daily, allowing investors to view the fund's holdings and the proportion of each constituent stock at any time, thereby helping them make more rational investment decisions. The fifth is high convenience. The operation mode of broad-based ETFs is easy to operate, especially suitable for small fund investors. By purchasing broad-based ETFs, they can easily diversify their investment portfolio without having to buy individual stocks one by one. The incremental policy boosts market sentiment, and the continuous expansion of the size of broad-based ETFs highlights investors' strong confidence in the market. Based on this, multiple institutions have also made predictions on the future direction in their latest research reports. CITIC Securities stated that firstly, from the perspective of policies and price signals, the innovation of monetary instruments at the end of September and the statement on real estate at the Central Politburo meeting significantly exceeded market expectations. The scale of incremental fiscal policies within the year may be relatively moderate, but the direction of use may be significantly expanded. Under the influence of incremental policies, it is expected that the turning point of price signals will arrive earlier; Secondly, from the perspective of market characteristics, institutional investors have significantly increased their holdings in A-shares recently, while retail investors have entered the market even more rapidly. This round of market trend combines two characteristics: a sharp reversal of expectations and the concentrated entry of incremental funds from retail investors. The pulse like rise is still mainly driven by expectations and funding, supplemented by fundamental verification. From the perspective of allocation strategy, CITIC Securities believes that there are two main themes worth paying attention to during the transitional stage of the market. One is the low PB style revaluation, and the other is the valuation repair of the domestic demand sector. Dividends and overseas style may be diluted. After the price signal is confirmed and a major turning point is reached, the market led by institutions is expected to gradually return, and the two major sectors of performance growth and domestic demand may continue to dominate. Guotai Junan Securities pointed out that the current weak economic data and growth expectations are unlikely to have a substantial impact on the stock market in the short term, and are expected to further strengthen policy expectations. The driving force behind this round of stock market trends comes from the decrease in risk-free interest rates, which has led to the influx of incremental funds into the market, as well as the improvement in investors' expectations for risk prospects, which has boosted their risk appetite. Optimistic expectations are still expected to continue to push up the stock market, and the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to rise above the operating area of 2021-2022. In terms of rhythm, it will first rise and then fluctuate, and the decision will be made at the end of the year. Heavyweight stocks are rapidly filling the valuation gap and are optimistic about the excess returns of growth styles. Currently, investors can focus their main battlefield on sectors that benefit from the decrease in risk-free interest rates and the boost in risk appetite. Guangfa Securities believes that the short-term extreme market performance conveys the signal of "policy bottom, market anchor". From the perspective of policy attitude reversal, it is expected that the most obvious changes will be in financial real estate, consumption, the Internet, as well as the pro cyclical sector represented by electronics. The market may continue to spread in a pro cyclical direction towards growth sectors, including but not limited to electronics and some computers, games, etc. Guangfa Securities predicts that the market may enter a buffer period after a sharp rise. The two major tests of the buffer period come from the third quarter report and the US presidential election. Investors can focus on investing in some products with good expectations for the third quarter report, such as the Asia Africa export chain. It is expected that since November, the relationship between stock price performance and current fundamentals has weakened significantly, and investors can focus on some thematic investment opportunities, such as domestic substitution related semiconductors, ICT and satellite Internet. (New Society)
Edit：Yao Jue Responsible editor：Xie Tunan
Source：Securities Times
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