Stock market 'bullish', latest statements from institutions
2024-10-08
The market suddenly ushered in a 'bull market'! On September 30th, major A-share indexes surged in volume, with Shanghai and Shenzhen trading volumes exceeding 2.5 trillion yuan, surpassing the 2015 bull market peak and setting a new historical high. Afterwards, Hong Kong stocks continued to rise during the A-share market closure period. Guotai Fund, China Europe Fund, Boshi Fund, Xinyuan Fund, Debon Fund and other public funds were interviewed by Chinese journalists from securities firms to interpret the market's large-scale upward trend. Looking ahead to the future, multiple public funds believe that with the support of policies and the restoration of market confidence, they can make a more positive outlook on the subsequent trend of the A-share market. The combination of favorable policies has been introduced, and the market welcomes a sharp rise. Regarding the market surge, multiple public funds have interpreted it. Guotai Fund believes that there are at least three factors driving the market upward: firstly, the National Day travel season has catalyzed the combination of consumption vouchers in high tier cities, leading the social service consumption related sectors. The improvement of short-term micro liquidity creates a foundation for the market environment, and the combination of "consumer vouchers+stable employment" in the fundamental dimension may leverage the potential of domestic demand. The second is the reversal of market confidence, with outstanding elasticity in the TMT growth sector, and computers that are sensitive to government finances benefiting the most. The previous fiscal expenditure slowed down, and the profitability of the computer industry declined, with a deeper decline entering the valuation bottom. The development certainty of Xinchuang is relatively high, and the fiscal policy will be significantly strengthened in the second half of the year. Following the proposal to issue trillion yuan of special treasury bond in the first half of the year to stimulate demand in the field of information and innovation, the pace of promoting the information and innovation policy significantly accelerated in the second half of the year, and the steady progress of localization process became increasingly clear. Under policy guidance, Xinchuang has sufficient space and flexibility. Thirdly, a combination of favorable policies has been introduced, and the market has entered a bull market mindset, with the financial sector bearing the banner of a bull market. This week, the Central Politburo and relevant departments of the State Council held intensive meetings to introduce a package of unexpectedly favorable policies in response to the current problems in the capital market, real estate, and economy. From the perspective of policy effectiveness, it has effectively solved the problems of capital market liquidity and real estate stall. The fundamentals of the non bank sector are highly correlated with the capital market and real estate market, directly benefiting from the introduction of a package of favorable policies. Boshi Fund stated that on September 29th, the People's Bank of China, together with the State Administration for Financial Regulation, issued four financial support policies for the real estate market, including adjusting the interest rates of existing housing loans, lowering the minimum down payment ratio for second homes, extending the policy period of the "Financial 16 Measures", and optimizing the policy of re lending for affordable housing. On the evening of September 29th, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen released policies to optimize the real estate market, releasing positive signals. Combined with the positive September PMI data released on September 30th, the manufacturing PMI has rebounded from the previous month, while the non manufacturing and composite PMI continue to be above the boom bust line. The marginal improvement in economic data also helps to enhance market risk appetite. Under the stimulation of multiple favorable policies and a favorable economic outlook, the A-share market continued to rise sharply on September 30th, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by over 8% and the ChiNext board rising by over 15%. Wanjia Fund stated that the market surge on September 30th is a continuation of last week's strong trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 12.81% and the ChiNext Index soaring 22.71%, with all major indices experiencing significant increases. The A-share market may have reached an important turning point and officially entered a phase of reversal and upward trend. The continuous introduction of policies has provided clear growth expectations for the market, driving a strong rise in the stock market. Xinyuan Fund stated that due to a change in policy attitude, monetary policy has been fully implemented, fiscal policy expectations are strong, and market trends have reversed. After the release of the Politburo meeting press release, the change in policy attitude will greatly enhance market risk appetite, greatly stimulate market confidence, and greatly alleviate market pessimism. The market has already started a major upward trend. Furong Fund stated that on September 30th, the market welcomed the closing trend of September. The ChiNext Index rose 38% in September, setting a historical record for monthly gains, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose 17% in September. On the 30th, the main A-share indexes surged throughout the day, with Shanghai and Shenzhen trading volumes exceeding 2.5 trillion yuan, setting a new historical high. Among them, computers rank high in the Shenwan level industry with a growth rate of up to 13.24%. In the subdivided fields, Internet brokers and securities IT rebounded strongly. Market sentiment is high and trading volume is rapidly increasing. For Internet securities companies and securities IT sector, equity market quotation itself is a basic forward-looking indicator. The increase in trading volume and turnover rate has driven Internet securities companies to reverse their expectations on fundamentals. The rapid expansion of trading volume has also brought about the demand for upgrading and transformation of the core trading system of securities companies. Make a positive outlook on the future trend of the A-share market, and currently many public funds have a more optimistic view. Guotai Fund believes that this round of policies will continue to release and completely reverse market trends. Referring to extreme market reviews such as December 2005, November 2008, and February 2024, it can be inferred that: 1) in terms of time, the market will last for an average of a certain period of time; 2) In terms of space, there may still be a certain degree of rebound in the short term (repairing the relative increase in Hong Kong stocks/Chinese concept stocks, repairing the relative valuation of overseas stock markets, and repairing half of the high level decline); 3) In terms of direction, we are optimistic about the risk appetite driven oversold rebound (growth, securities firms) and the medium-term fundamental driven recovery mainline (consumption, real estate). Xinyuan Fund believes that this round of upward trend will be roughly divided into three stages: rapid rise period, buffer period, and verification period. In the initial stage of the rise, the main characteristics are oversold rebound and expected benefits, with various industries generally experiencing a round of gains. This week, industries such as consumption, non bank finance, and real estate saw the highest growth, while traditional defensive utilities and petroleum and petrochemical industries lagged behind. After the enthusiasm for buying is released, the market will enter a buffer period of policy introduction, and industry selection is an important source of returns in this stage. Finally, there is the validation period for the effectiveness data target. If data validation is obtained at that time, coupled with high expectations for next year's economic targets, it is expected that the market will establish a reversal. China Europe Fund stated that it can make a more positive outlook on the future trend of the A-share market. After several consecutive days of gains, the stock market is returning to reasonable value, demonstrating a positive attitude towards policy response. It is expected that in the coming period, with the gradual implementation of policies and the promotion of incremental policies, the A-share market is expected to emerge from the sluggish state of the past three years and enter a new stage of development. China Europe Fund believes that the future development of the A-share market will be driven by both policy support and the recovery of market confidence. Investors should closely monitor policy trends and market changes, and make rational investment decisions. Debon Fund stated that currently, unlike in history, trading volume is accelerating under the continuous catalysis of policies; Although there is uncertainty after the National Day holiday, the path of overseas influence on the domestic market is often through exports, while interest rate cuts and other means affect the path of capital flow; At present, the factors that boost sentiment are more about fiscal policies stimulating domestic demand potential rather than external demand. The domestic market is significantly undervalued compared to overseas markets, so the risk has significantly weakened during this year's National Day holiday. The market after National Day still depends on the domestic environment. The current acceleration of funds entering the market by residents has even caused trading crashes on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, and securities account openings have been exceptionally hot over the weekend. There will still be continuous funds entering the market in the future, as well as the central bank's indication of 500 billion yuan of institutional swap facilities, 300 billion yuan of repurchases, and incremental funds for increased holdings and refinancing entering the market. In terms of strategic operation, follow the trend and firmly take the long view. HSBC Jinxin Fund believes that looking ahead to the fourth quarter, considering the clear shift in policies, the valuation recovery elasticity brought about by the expected rebound cannot be ignored. Combined with the current upward trend in the capital market policy cycle, measures such as advocating listed companies to increase dividends will improve the long-term internal capital supply and demand structure of the market. The interest rate cut cycle and the market's demand for high-yield assets will increase the demand for equity asset allocation. The market is expected to continue the revaluation process in the future. Under the resonance of multiple factors, it is expected that market risk appetite will increase, risk premiums are expected to decline, and equity assets currently valued at historically low levels are expected to undergo a valuation reassessment. In the short term, with the continued implementation of stable growth policies, low inflation, ample liquidity, and bottoming out of market profits, the investment value of undervalued pro cyclical sectors is more prominent. In the long run, the driving force of the Chinese economy is undergoing restructuring, and new economic growth drivers related to "new quality productivity" will have greater long-term development space, which is a direction worth focusing on when equity assets are low. Overall, there are segmented investment opportunities in both the new economic growth sector and the traditional pro cyclical value sector, and the overall preferred sector is one that balances long-term development space and profit improvement elasticity. Focus on the following directions: New quality productivity sectors that resonate with industry trends and policies: AI hardware, high-end manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, etc; The pro cyclical sectors that benefit from stable growth policies include industrial metals, household appliances, etc. (New Society)
Edit：Si Xiaoying Responsible editor：Jiao Jian
Source：CCTV
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