How far is it from the conceptual model to the actual test flight of the sixth generation aircraft jointly developed by Britain, Italy and Japan?
2024-08-30
? The latest conceptual model of the Global Combat Air Program (GCAP). In July of this year, at the Farnborough International Aerospace Exhibition in the UK, the latest conceptual model of the next-generation fighter jet "Global Combat Air Program" (GCAP) jointly developed by the UK, Italy, and Japan was unveiled. In addition, it is accompanied by projects such as unmanned wingmen, next-generation weapons, network and data link sharing equipment. It is reported that the UK is in a leading position in the GCAP project, which is based on the "Storm" sixth generation aircraft plan proposed by the UK in 2018. The project aims to create an advanced fighter jet that integrates supersonic cruise capability and the latest air combat technology to replace the European "Typhoon" and Japanese F-2 fighter jets. The joint development of sixth generation aircraft tests the financial, technological, and willpower of participating countries, and is destined to be a highly challenging 'big project'. In the past "Storm" sixth generation aircraft plan, the UK, Italy, and Sweden had disagreements over issues such as intellectual property and cost sharing, making it difficult to reach a consensus. Later, Sweden withdrew and Japan joined, making the interests of all parties more complex. Like the "Storm" sixth generation aircraft program, the progress of the GCAP project has been slow since the signing of contracts by the governments of the UK, Italy, and Japan in December 2022. In the future, it remains to be further observed whether the GCAP project can achieve a transition from conceptual models to real aircraft test flights and even mass production. Joining hands to warm up, multiple countries are jointly developing sixth generation fighter jets. Currently, among the world's fifth generation fighter jets, represented by F-22, F-35, Su-57, etc., these fighter jets have achieved mass production and installation, and have been successfully applied in actual combat. Driven by this trend, countries are also intensifying their research and development work on the next generation of fighter jets, in order to gain a first mover advantage and achieve a "generation gap" in weapons and equipment, forming a certain "dimensionality reduction strike" against opponents. However, the development of modern fighter jets is a highly complex systems engineering project that consumes huge amounts of funds, and most countries do not have a complete aviation industry system to support it, nor do they have sufficient defense research and development funds to guarantee it. It is even more difficult to independently develop the most advanced sixth generation aircraft. In this situation, there are only two ways for other countries to acquire sixth generation aircraft - one is to purchase them in bulk after successful research and development in countries such as the United States and Russia. The advantage is that the purchasing country does not need to spend a lot of financial and energy on research and development, and can be used immediately upon purchase. The disadvantage is also evident, as purchasing countries are often unable to obtain advanced fighter jets in a timely manner due to policy constraints imposed by exporting countries. For example, the United States strictly prohibits the export of F-22 fighter jets, which are mainly based on air combat advantages. As for the F-35 fighter jet, it was not until many years after its installation that it began to be exported to some countries. Similarly, Russia only began to provide lightweight Su-75 fighter jets to the international market after being equipped with Su-57 fighter jets for a considerable period of time. Another approach is to gather multiple countries with certain strength to jointly develop new models. Within this international cooperation framework, participating countries invest manpower, material resources, and financial resources in proportion to form a joint research and development force. The advantage is that each country will have certain intellectual property rights for new models, which can be produced and installed without or with less restriction from major countries. The disadvantage is that each country's military has its own specific needs, and different technical and tactical indicators can make it difficult to reconcile the opinions of all parties, directly affecting the normal progress of the project and possibly forcing the project to be aborted. In fact, European countries have repeatedly initiated international cooperation models for aviation projects, such as the "Alpha" jet fighter jointly developed by France and Germany, the "Jaguar" fighter jointly developed by Britain and France, the "Gale" fighter jointly developed by Britain, Germany, and Italy, and the "Typhoon" fighter jointly developed by Britain, Germany, Italy, and Spain. But these projects were not smooth sailing. The "Storm" fighter jet project initially involved six countries, but later Canada, the Netherlands, and Belgium withdrew; The "Typhoon" project initially involved France, but due to various reasons such as leadership and investment share, it chose to withdraw. Later, it independently developed the "Rafale" fighter jet. In the era of fifth generation fighter jets, European countries made little progress and simply participated in the US led Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) project. Afterwards, they purchased F-35 fighter jets according to quotas, and only a few countries were allowed to introduce production lines to participate in the assembly of fighter jets. During this period, it was difficult for the purchasing country to acquire the core technology of the F-35 fighter jet and was constrained by the United States in the procurement process. In 2019, Türkiye's purchase of Russia's S-400 air defense missile system led the United States to kick it out of the F-35 fighter sale plan. In view of this, many European countries have decided to no longer rely on the United States in the development of sixth generation fighter jets and adopt international cooperation to build a European version of advanced fighter jets. In 2017, Germany and France were the first to launch the "Future Air Combat System" project. Spain joined in 2019, and Belgium joined as an observer in 2023, promising to officially join by June 2025. In 2018, the UK proposed the development of the "Storm" sixth generation aircraft and welcomed joint development by various countries. Subsequently, Italy announced its participation, making the "Storm" sixth generation aircraft an international cooperation project, which soon attracted Japan's participation. In 2022, the United Kingdom, Italy, and Japan jointly announced the launch of the next-generation fighter jet "Global Combat Air Program" (GCAP), merging the "Storm" sixth generation fighter jet project with the Japanese F-X fighter jet project, opening another path for the development of sixth generation aircraft. Overtaking on a bend, the new project of "learning from experience" fifth generation fighter jet propulsion follows the development logic of "equipping the first generation, developing the first generation, and exploring the first generation" of fighter jets. After the glory of fighter jets such as "Typhoon" and "Rafale", Europe has made little progress in fighter jet research and development. Due to the absence of fifth generation aircraft research and development, countries such as the UK and Italy attempted to promote the GCAP project and develop sixth generation aircraft to achieve curve overtaking, thereby promoting the overall level of the aviation industry. Prior to this, the UK, Italy, and Japan only had partial assembly and production experience for the F-35 fighter jet, which had a negative impact on the progress of the GCAP project. Currently, there are three main companies participating in the GCAP project - BAE Systems from the UK, Leonardo from Italy, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries from Japan. The commonality among these three companies is that they all participate in the US F-35 fighter jet project, have assembly production lines, and undertake the production and supply of corresponding components, becoming an important link in the global F-35 industry chain. BAE Systems is not only responsible for some of the development and testing projects of the F-35B vertical takeoff and landing fighter jet, but also for the overall development and integration of electronic warfare systems for the entire F-35 series of aircraft. At the Somerset factory in northern England, BAE Systems has established several production lines to produce structural components such as the rear fuselage, tail wing kit, wing tips, nozzle doors, etc., which are provided to the final assembly plant of the US F-35 fighter jet. Leonardo da Vinci, an Italian company, is also an important participant in the F-35 fighter jet project. The company's Cameri assembly plant has 22 buildings and over 90000 square meters of factory space. It not only has the production capacity for the final assembly of F-35A fighter jets, but is also the only factory in the United States to have the capability for the final assembly of F-35B vertical takeoff and landing fighter jets. It is also responsible for the maintenance and upgrading of the European F-35 fleet. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries is also a high-level partner of the F-35 fighter jet, with assembly and inspection facilities in Nagoya, producing the F-35A fighter jet for Japan. However, these assembly production experiences are clearly insufficient for the development of sixth generation machines. It can be said that the biggest problem with the joint development of the sixth generation aircraft by Britain, Italy, and Japan is the difficulty in overcoming key core technologies. From the beginning, the United States has not truly shared the key core technologies of the fifth generation aircraft with its allies, which is precisely the biggest weakness of the joint development of the sixth generation aircraft by the three countries. Therefore, advancing the GCAP project requires the collection of more high-quality resources. According to statistics, there will be over 1000 suppliers and approximately 9000 people participating in the project worldwide. In addition to the three leading companies, there are also defense contractors such as European Missile Group, Rolls Royce of the UK, Mitsubishi Electric of Japan, and Avio Aero of Italy. These companies are responsible for various aspects of fighter jet research and development, from engine design to onboard artificial intelligence systems, from sensor technology to radar systems. Their participation will bring cutting-edge technology to the GCAP project and be an important guarantee for its smooth progress. The road ahead is long, and everyone's calculations have become the biggest obstacle. For the GCAP project, participating countries are full of expectations, and there are often some positive news - Saudi Arabia has proposed to join the project, which will bring sufficient financial security; It is rumored that Germany may abandon its cooperation with France and instead invest in the GCAP project to provide more technical support. However, it cannot be denied that the development of the sixth generation aircraft project is extremely difficult and the cost is difficult to estimate. It seems that the three countries are promoting the project vigorously, but in fact, there are internal undercurrents and great uncertainties. Lack of research and development experience. The three leading companies lack multiple key core technologies for developing sixth generation aircraft, and their system design ideas are also very immature. In 2018, when BAE Systems first proposed the "Storm" sixth generation aircraft project, it was described as a combination of manned and unmanned aerial vehicles, and could be switched between the two models by simply replacing the cockpit system. Later, it was positioned as a manned aircraft, demonstrating a wavering design concept. While assembling and producing the F-35 fighter jet, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries also independently developed the X-2 "Heart" technology verification aircraft, claiming to be comparable to the F-35 fighter jet. In 2016, the X-2 "Heart of Mind" technology validation aircraft made its maiden flight, which some netizens referred to as a "large-sized model aircraft" that did not have the characteristics of a fifth generation aircraft. Soon after, the project was cancelled. Even the later proposed next-generation F-X fighter jet plan is just talk on paper, with little concrete action. The project funding is tight. In July of this year, the UK announced the results of its fiscal review, which showed that it was facing serious financial difficulties. In this situation, a senior official from the UK Treasury stated that a choice will be made between the new generation attack nuclear submarine project and the GCAP project, calling the latter the "most vulnerable project" for the UK Ministry of Defence. The Royal Air Force has already exceeded its budget on this project and even diverted millions of pounds from the UK Army budget for research and development work. There are variables in cooperation. The biggest uncertainty in the joint promotion of the GCAP project by multiple countries may come from Japan. Unlike the UK and Italy, which have had multiple cooperation experiences, Japan has been playing with its own plans since joining the project. The decision-making of the Japanese government has always been constrained by the United States. In history, Japan has repeatedly planned to independently develop new fighter jets but has been obstructed by the United States, forcing it to purchase American made fighter jets at high prices. Japan is constantly pressuring the United States by developing some technology verification aircraft, with the intention of lowering prices when purchasing American made fighter jets. Therefore, although Japan is currently involved in the GCAP project, it cannot be ruled out that Japan will withdraw from the GCAP project and instead purchase American made fighter jets once the United States opens up exports of sixth generation aircraft to Japan in the future. Japan's participation in the GCAP project may also have considerations in this regard. In summary, the progress of the GCAP project will not be very smooth. We will continue to monitor whether the planned goals of first flight in 2027, service in 2035, and the purchase of 300 aircraft by the UK, Italy, and Japan can be achieved. (New Society)
Edit：Xiong Dafei Responsible editor：Li Xiang
Source：PRC Newspaper
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