Why is TB-2 drone widely favored in the market?
2024-08-22
By the end of 2023, Türkiye has sold more than 400 TB-2 UAVs to 33 countries/regions, making a brilliant page in the history of world UAV military trade. The unknown Bayrak company was founded in 1984, initially producing automotive engines and other components. In 2000, encouraged by the government to join the policy of self-reliance in the defense industry, private enterprises switched to drone research and development. After nearly 20 years of intensive cultivation, the first UAV export in Türkiye's history was successfully achieved in 2018. With the gradual increase of the total export volume of Türkiye's defense industry, although other Turkish companies such as Türkiye Aerospace, STM, Lentaken and Roketsan have also produced different types of UAVs, Baykar's products, mainly TB-2 and Akinc, are the most popular in the market, and TB-2 has also become a famous brand product in Türkiye. People who pay attention to the military trade market have to think about a question: why can TB-2 create such performance, and can its efforts and achievements be referenced? After the transformation of national defense industry into an autonomous one during the Cold War, Türkiye's national defense continued to rely on the United States and NATO for arms support. The 1974 Cyprus "peace operation" triggered an arms embargo against Türkiye by the United States and NATO allies. In this dilemma, Türkiye's leaders really realized the importance of the independence of the national defense industry, and launched a "top-down" transformation of the national defense industry, which mainly includes reducing the dependence on foreign defense weapons, enhancing the independent production capacity and strengthening the role of government leadership. In 1985, the government released the "Modernization Plan for the Armed Forces", which became the principle and cornerstone guiding the development of the national defense industry. Almost all of the well-known companies we see today started from that time, such as Aselsan, which produces army equipment and electronic products, founded in 1976, and Roketsan, which produces precision guided missiles, founded in 1988. At the beginning of the 21st century, in order to combat cross-border regional terrorist organizations, Türkiye purchased Hamon UAVs from Israel, which had insufficient reconnaissance equipment capacity and engine failure, prompting Türkiye to turn to the United States. The proposal to purchase four MQ-1 "Predators" and six MQ-9 "Death Gods" was rejected by the United States Congress. A series of events have further strengthened the determination of the Türkiye government to make the defense industry independent and continue to invest heavily in related R&D projects. Under the influence of many factors, such as the failure of foreign aid, the increasingly rampant terrorist activities, and the improvement of the world economy, Türkiye's defense industry is like a seed that slowly germinates and grows, and finally bears rich fruits. From 2002 to 2011 to 2012 to 2021, Türkiye's arms exports increased by 72.7%, the highest growth rate among the world's arms exporters; During the same period, Türkiye's arms imports grew by only 2.9% (Table 1). In 2022, four Türkiye companies, Baykar, Aselsan, TAI and Roketsan, will be listed as one of the world's top 100 large-scale weapon manufacturers for the first time, and the total revenue from domestic and foreign arms sales will reach 5.5 billion US dollars, an increase of 22% over 2021. Data and facts have proved that Türkiye's decision to develop national defense industry autonomy 40 years ago was far sighted. In the past 10 years, Türkiye has made use of the strong demand for UAVs in the international market to export a large number of UAVs, aiming at strengthening military or political relations, exchanging interests, indirectly intervening in regional conflicts, etc., and expanding Türkiye's geopolitical influence. The TB-2 export evolution can divide the TB-2 UAV export trade of Bayrak Company into the following three stages in combination with Türkiye's defense industry localization process. （1） A preliminary attempt (2012-2015) In the 2007-2011 Strategic Plan released in 2007, Türkiye took encouraging and supporting defense exports as its national strategic goal, which defined the direction for the development of the UAV industry. In December 2010, after the successful first flight of TAI's first ANKA UAV, Türkiye had the idea of exporting it. Although a few countries such as Saudi Arabia have expressed their intention to purchase, it ultimately proved to be fruitless. In 2012, during President Erdogan's visit to Cairo, negotiations were held with the Egyptian government of Morsi regarding the export of six ANKA drone systems. However, the resignation of the Morsi government led to a rapid cooling of relations between the two countries, and the deal was put on hold. At the same time, the TB-2 drone was still under intense research and production, and completed its maiden flight in 2014. At this time, Türkiye UAV is still in the market exploration stage. As a country that has long relied on the import of Israeli UAVs, Türkiye's self-developed UAVs lack practical inspection, which results in that it does not use domestic UAVs much during the product promotion period. It can be seen that both domestic and international markets do not highly recognize its combat capabilities. （2） Steady development (2015-2020) After the first batch of TB-2 was delivered in 2015, Türkiye's government was no longer eager to promote outward, but began to comprehensively replace Israeli products, using TB-2 to attack Kurdish militants in Türkiye, the Syrian border and northern Iraq. Firstly, the ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) function of TB-2 replaces military outposts in remote and harsh environments; Secondly, it can leverage the TB-2's precision strike capability to target high-value targets at designated locations. According to official data, in September 2016, TB-2 completed its first mission targeting Kurdish targets and eliminated 5 terrorists. In the first two years of using domestically produced armed drones for counter-terrorism operations, a total of 405 terrorists were killed in drone strikes. TB-2 has achieved good results in a series of anti-terrorism operations and has also demonstrated practical effects to the public. Its market recognition has begun to increase, and TB-2 exports are gradually improving. At the 2018 Doha International Maritime Defense Exhibition, Qatar signed a contract for six TB-2 unmanned aerial vehicle systems, becoming Bayrak's first user. Subsequently, Azerbaijan and Ukraine successively ordered, which made material preparations in advance for the later outbreak of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. （3） Comprehensively promoting (from 2020 to now) TB-2's involvement in the wars in Syria and Libya, especially the confrontation with the Russian air defense system, coupled with the increasingly mature UAV tactics, began to make people look at Türkiye's UAVs with new eyes. In the Nagorno Karabakh War, the effective use of Azerbaijan's TB-2 drone fleet, especially the display of TB-2 attack videos on Armenian tanks, armored vehicles, and air defense systems by the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense on social media, attracted high attention to TB-2 and led to a sharp increase in sales (Table 2). With the help of the TB-2 war image, Türkiye, on the one hand, continues to expand its UAV trading territory and actively explore the European market. For example, Poland purchased 24 drones in May 2021, becoming the first NATO ally to sign the bill; On the other hand, we also do not forget the emerging drone market in Africa. For example, in addition to Nigeria's purchase of TB-2, the two sides have also reached cooperation in the fields of energy, oil and gas, and mining, achieving military trade spillover effects. The driving force behind the decline in demand from 2015 to 2020 is the outstanding performance of TB-2 drones in the conflicts in Libya, Syria, and Nagorno Karabakh. Türkiye has achieved the strategic aspirations of a medium-sized power by taking proactive and pragmatic actions, and gradually established its status and identity as a major exporter of UAVs in the world. The performance and quality of TB-2's combat assessment weapon on the battlefield directly affect its sales, and there have been many successful cases in history. In the 1982 Falklands War, Argentina successfully sank the British destroyer Sheffield with a French made "Flying Fish" missile; In the 1987 Iran Iraq War, the US Stark frigate was hit by two Iraqi "Flying Fish" missiles, and the two actual combat effects made the "Flying Fish" missiles famous internationally. Subsequently, orders were received from countries including Brunei, Greece, Morocco, Oman, Peru, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt. Similarly, the widespread popularity of TB-2 in the international market is inseparable from its outstanding capabilities in military activities such as counter-terrorism operations, air support, and strikes. Coincidentally, in the four local wars mentioned above, the opponents of TB-2 drones were equipped with Russian made air defense systems (Table 3). Judging from the results of previous conventional wars, although unmanned aerial vehicles have small target characteristics, fly slowly, and have low flight altitudes, making them difficult for air defense systems to detect, both mobile and fixed air defense systems on the ground have strong air defense firepower, let alone the Russian made air defense system, which is one of the world's top air defense capabilities. In every war, Russian made air defense systems are destroyed, and there must be a common problem behind this, which is that the air defense systems are either deceived or suppressed. Long endurance drones like TB-2 are vulnerable to attacks from enemy air defense systems, so a set of tactical complementary technologies such as electronic warfare systems and decoy methods, as well as coordinated combat missions with other weapon platforms, are necessary. Only after establishing air superiority or air superiority can SEAD/DEAD (Suppress/Destroy Enemy Air Defense Systems) battles against surface to air missiles be launched, and radar tracking and missile attacks be avoided. Once equipped with advanced electronic warfare systems, the detection and engagement range of the opponent's air defense system can be determined, and friendly air platforms can be located on the battlefield in a timely manner based on this data. If electronic support and attacks are effective, this tactical complementary technology can open a safe channel for air platforms. We have seen the use of KORAL electronic warfare systems in the wars in which TB-2 has been involved. Türkiye's military will coordinate UAVs, artillery forces, UAVs and ground forces in a networked synchronous manner. This new tactic was first applied to the Syrian battlefield and later replicated and improved in Libya and the Nagorno Karabakh region. The TB-2 is highly popular in the international market mainly due to its performance on real battlefields. No matter how bad the opening battle is (for example, Libyan GNA has lost 11 TB-2 consecutively), as long as Türkiye's electronic warfare, UAV and other resources cooperate on the scene, the battlefield can gradually turn to the favorable direction for its allies, and achieve extraordinary achievements. Due to the low cost of drones, they can win in numbers and replace manned fighter jets to suppress or destroy enemy air defense systems, thereby gaining local air superiority and providing close range air support to ground forces, continuously expanding their achievements. This combat mode provides a tactical strategy for small and medium-sized countries to emulate. It should be noted that with the development of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Russian military has strengthened its radar system and anti-aircraft missile capabilities, and the operational effectiveness of the TB-2 UAV has been greatly weakened. According to Oryx Blog data (August 2023), the Ukrainian military has lost approximately 24 TB-2 aircraft and the remaining inventory is limited. It is reported that the Ukrainian military no longer uses TB-2 to directly engage enemy targets, but instead deploys it to collect battlefield intelligence and monitor Russian movements in real-time, using its ISR capabilities to continue supporting Ukrainian resistance. This may be the reason why there are fewer and fewer reports on TB-2. The delivery of marketing military equipment for TB-2 is not a one-time trade, but also involves extended services such as spare parts, maintenance, and training, requiring the establishment of long-term partnerships. In addition, Türkiye also provides the user country with the UAV combat concept and tactical application that have been tested in actual combat and continuously improved. Türkiye's unique operational concept is that unmanned and manned systems are jointly used under the command and control (C2) structure of Türkiye's military. Actual combat has proved that they are very effective in achieving military operational objectives. Whoever moves faster in the kill chain can dominate the battlefield. After the deal is concluded, Türkiye experts will carry out training hand in hand. This undoubtedly expands the attractiveness of the product and provides users with value-added services. Established drone powers such as the United States and Israel
Edit：Xiong Dafei Responsible editor：Li Xiang
Source：XinHuaNet
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