The overall economy continued to rebound and show a positive trend in July-瞭望新时代网-瞭望时代，放眼世界

The overall economy continued to rebound and show a positive trend in July

2024-08-16

The cultivation and growth of new driving forces have accelerated, and high-quality development has been solidly promoted. In July, the overall economy continued to rebound and improve (authoritative release), production demand continued to recover, employment and prices remained stable, new driving forces have accelerated cultivation and growth, and high-quality development has been solidly promoted... The overall operation of the national economy in July was stable and steady, with progress made, and the overall trend of recovery and improvement continued. At the press conference held by the State Council Information Office on August 15th, Liu Aihua, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, Chief Economist, and Director of the Comprehensive Statistics Department of the National Economy, introduced the operation of the national economy in July and answered questions from reporters. Consumption continues to recover, investment scale continues to expand. Observing the demand side of economic operation, in July, with the effective implementation of various policies to expand domestic demand and promote consumption, consumption continues to recover, and investment scale continues to expand. Looking at the consumption trend, the total retail sales of consumer goods in July increased by 2.7% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.7 percentage points compared to June. Retail sales of goods have accelerated. In July, the retail sales of goods increased by 2.7% year-on-year, with a growth rate 1.2 percentage points faster than in June. Among the 18 product categories in units above the quota, the year-on-year growth rate of retail sales for 10 categories of goods has rebounded. Service consumption is growing rapidly. From January to July, the retail sales of services increased by 7.2% year-on-year, with a growth rate 4.1 percentage points higher than the retail sales of goods during the same period. Driven by the peak summer tourism season, the consumption of transportation services, tourism consulting and rental services, and cultural and leisure services has grown rapidly. New types of consumption are constantly expanding. From the data in July, the retail sales of communication equipment products by units above designated size increased by 12.7% year-on-year, the retail sales of sports and entertainment products increased by 10.7% year-on-year, and the retail sales of new energy vehicles increased by 36.9% year-on-year. Digital consumption, green consumption, and health consumption have become new trends. Online consumption is steadily increasing. Driven by new formats such as live streaming e-commerce and social e-commerce, the online retail sales of physical goods increased by 8.7% year-on-year from January to July, which is 5.2 percentage points faster than the total retail sales of consumer goods in society; Accounting for 25.6% of the total retail sales of consumer goods, an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to the first half of the year. Judging from the investment situation, from January to July, the national fixed assets investment (excluding farmers) increased by 3.6% year on year. Manufacturing investment bears the heavy burden. From January to July, the growth rate of manufacturing investment was 5.7 percentage points higher than that of total investment, contributing 62.2% to the growth of total investment, an increase of 4.7 percentage points from the first half of the year. High tech industries are at the forefront. From January to July, investment in high-tech industries increased by 10.4% year-on-year, which is 6.8 percentage points higher than total investment. Among them, investment in high-tech manufacturing and high-tech service industries increased by 9.7% and 11.9% respectively. Major projects make significant contributions. The total planned investment for projects with a total investment of 100 million yuan or more from January to July increased by 7.6% year-on-year, driving a total investment growth of 4.1 percentage points. The device update has shown significant results. Driven by the policy of large-scale equipment updates, from January to July, investment in the purchase of equipment and tools increased by 17.0% year-on-year, contributing 60.7% to the overall investment growth; The investment in technological transformation in the manufacturing industry increased by 10.9%, continuing to maintain double-digit growth, which is 7.3 percentage points faster than the total investment. Observing external demand, the total import and export volume of goods in July increased by 6.5% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month. The cumulative scale of imports and exports reached a new historical high for the same period, and the quality and quantity of goods imports and exports increased. Overall, market demand continued to recover in July. But it should also be noted that some problems in development and transformation are still emerging, and the foundation for economic recovery and improvement needs to be further consolidated Liu Aihua said. Industrial production maintains rapid growth, and the industrial structure continues to optimize. In July, under the comprehensive effects of macroeconomic policies, accelerated growth of new driving forces, and enhanced export driving force, industrial production maintains rapid growth and the industrial structure continues to optimize. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.1% year-on-year and 0.35% month on month. Specifically, nearly 60% of products in 80% of industries have achieved growth. In July, among the 41 major industrial sectors, 33 industries achieved year-on-year growth in added value, with a growth rate of 80.5%. Among the 597 major industrial products counted, 354 products achieved an increase in output, with a growth rate of 59.3%, nearly 60%. The equipment manufacturing industry plays a role as a "ballast stone". In July, the added value of equipment manufacturing industry above designated size increased by 7.3% year-on-year, 0.4 percentage points faster than the previous month, driving the growth of industrial enterprises above designated size by 2.4 percentage points, with a contribution rate of 47.9%, nearly 50%. The cultivation and growth of new driving forces in the manufacturing industry are accelerating. From an industry perspective, the added value of high-end equipment industries such as aerospace and equipment manufacturing, electronic and communication equipment manufacturing, and computer and office equipment manufacturing increased by 18.1%, 13.1%, and 11.0% year-on-year in July, respectively, with growth rates accelerating by 8.8, 2.1, and 6.8 percentage points compared to June. From a product perspective, the production of civilian unmanned aerial vehicles increased by 84.7% year-on-year, service robots increased by 41.6%, integrated circuits increased by 26.9%, and industrial robots increased by 19.7%, all achieving rapid double-digit growth. Green industries and products are growing rapidly. In July, the production of new energy vehicles increased by 27.8% year-on-year, the production of polycrystalline silicon increased by 27.3% year-on-year, and the production of wind turbines increased by 39.6% year-on-year. The international competitiveness of industrial products continues to improve. Since the beginning of this year, although the international economic and trade environment has been complex, the growth of industrial exports has accelerated. In July, the delivery value of industrial exports above designated size increased by 6.4% year-on-year, an increase of 2.6 percentage points compared to the previous month. Among the 39 major industries with exports, 33 industries achieved growth in exports, with a growth rate of 84.6%. Among them, the export delivery value of the automotive industry has maintained double-digit growth for 8 consecutive months; General equipment, specialized equipment, and the chemical industry have also achieved double-digit growth. Business expectations remain optimistic. In the July PMI, the enterprise production index was 50.1%, and the expected index of enterprise production and operation activities was 53.1%, continuing to be in the expansion range. Looking forward to the next stage, Liu Aihua said that the economic operation is facing some new difficulties and challenges, the external environment is becoming more complex, and the factors of instability and uncertainty are increasing significantly; The domestic effective demand is insufficient, the pain of the transformation of new and old kinetic energy appears, the development of different fields is differentiated, and short-term factors such as high temperature, rainstorm and flood also have a certain impact on the economic operation. We need to enhance our risk awareness and bottom line thinking, actively respond to risk challenges, maintain strategic determination, and strengthen our confidence in development. We see that favorable conditions are still stronger than unfavorable factors in China's economic development, and the stable, medium, and long-term development trend will not change Liu Aihua said. From the production perspective, new driving forces are increasingly becoming the new engines of economic growth. The transformation and upgrading of traditional industries are steadily advancing, while emerging industries are developing rapidly. The upgrading and upgrading of industries have added new impetus and advantages to economic development. From January to July, the proportion of added value in high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing industries above designated size increased by 0.6 and 0.9 percentage points respectively year-on-year; Intelligent green products such as virtual reality devices and new energy vehicles have maintained double-digit growth, gradually forming new growth points for the economy, which is conducive to enhancing economic action. From the demand side, market potential and policy effectiveness are expected to drive the continued recovery of domestic demand. The market is the scarcest resource. China has a population of over 1.4 billion and a per capita GDP of over 12000 US dollars for three consecutive years. Currently, it is in a period of accelerated release of consumption potential Liu Aihua said that in the near future, various regions and departments have strengthened efforts to promote the upgrading of consumption quality, constantly optimize consumption supply around China-Chic new products and regional characteristics, and the rapid development of new integrated consumption such as parent-child travel, performance travel, event travel, film and television travel has become a highlight driving consumption growth. Next, with the gradual implementation of the "Opinions on Promoting High Quality Development of Service Consumption" and "Several Measures to Strengthen Support for Large scale Equipment Renewal and Consumer Goods Trade in", as well as the arrival of holidays such as Mid Autumn Festival and National Day, the potential of the domestic consumer market is expected to be further released. In terms of investment, with the accelerated construction of the "dual" construction projects, investment in weak areas, weak links, and new tracks and fields is expected to continue to grow, and the investment scale is expected to continue to expand. From a policy perspective, macro policies are constantly increasing in intensity and their effects are continuously being released. Liu Aihua said that a series of major reform measures were deployed at the Third Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, which is conducive to resolving deep-seated institutional barriers and structural contradictions, stimulating the enthusiasm, initiative and creativity of business entities, and will further consolidate social consensus, boost market confidence and stimulate endogenous momentum. In the future, with the implementation of major policies and the acceleration of major measures, the issuance of special bonds and ultra long term treasury bond will be accelerated, and the consistency of fiscal policies, monetary policies and other macro policies will be enhanced, which will help to form a strong joint force to promote economic growth and provide favorable conditions for consolidating the economic recovery. Overall, despite facing many risks and challenges, China's economic development still has favorable conditions, with a foundation and conditions to overcome problems in development and transformation, and promote sustained economic recovery and improvement Liu Aihua said that currently, the key is to promote the effective implementation of various decision-making arrangements and transform development potential into high-quality development momentum. (New Society)

Edit：NingChangRun Responsible editor：LiaoXin

Source：People's Daily

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