Four European countries jointly develop cruise missiles
2024-08-05
Recently, four NATO European member states, Germany, France, Italy, and Poland, signed a letter of intent to jointly develop land-based cruise missiles with a range exceeding 500 kilometers. There are reports that its range will eventually exceed 1000 kilometers, and may even reach 2000 kilometers. The timely implementation of this new missile development plan has attracted attention from the outside world. There are multiple incentives for four European countries to start developing cruise missiles to replenish their military inventories. The escalation of the confrontation between NATO and Russia is the most direct driving factor. Recently, the United States and Germany issued a joint statement stating that the United States will deploy long-range firepower in Germany in stages starting from 2026, including the "Standard-6" and "Tomahawk" missiles, as well as hypersonic weapons under development. The "Tomahawk" missile has a range of 2500 kilometers, and the hypersonic missile under development will have a range of over 2750 kilometers, while the distance from Berlin to Moscow is only about 1600 kilometers. This move is obviously a great stimulus to Russia, and Russia's "reciprocal countermeasures" will put the European continent in a dangerous situation. In addition, the possibility of Trump's "return to the White House" is increasing, and the United States' "protective umbrella" over Europe is likely to "tighten". Europe urgently needs to "prepare for the future" and develop weapons that it relies on for self-protection. The four European countries are seeking to reduce their dependence on the United States in military equipment to varying degrees and enhance European defense autonomy, which is the main intrinsic motivation. France and Germany have relatively complete industrial and military production systems, while Italy also insists on independent or joint research and development with European countries. Although Poland is more pro American, it is anxious about the shift in US geopolitical focus and military production capacity. Instead of blindly purchasing US made weapons at high prices, it has purchased a large number of South Korean weapons as a "replacement" and independently developed new long-range missiles. In the past two years, the lack of follow-up on European aid to Ukraine's weapons reflects the gradual depletion of heavy weapons assets in European countries. Data shows that 25% of Germany's heavy weapons inventory has been transferred to Ukraine, and the number of Panther tanks, medium range air defense missiles, and artillery ammunition that can be quickly delivered is decreasing. The French inventory of "Scape" cruise missiles has also been depleted. Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, although Europe has tried to "revitalize" its military production capacity, it has been constrained by the overall decline of the military industry caused by long-term peace after the Cold War. The effect has been poor and it is difficult to fill the gap in the arsenal. Can the four European countries use the development of new missiles as an opportunity to revitalize their domestic military capabilities? At present, challenges outweigh opportunities. From the perspective of technological accumulation, although Europe has made some progress in missile defense, the development of offensive missiles has been slow. In addition, the concentration of European missile manufacturers in a few companies has led to a high degree of monopoly in production and high prices, resulting in a clear trend of a shortage of technical personnel training. Therefore, the document released this time is only a letter of intent, which expresses the intention to develop weapons, but does not show more details. From the perspective of financial security, although the total defense spending of European countries has increased significantly in recent years, most of it has been directly or indirectly used to assist Ukraine, with limited increase in investment in weapon research and technological upgrades. In addition, European countries with poor financial conditions have reduced investment in welfare areas such as people's livelihoods and public utilities, which has caused widespread dissatisfaction among the public. From a political will perspective, NATO's strict requirements for joint maintenance and interoperability of weapons and equipment have led European countries to choose to purchase ready-made equipment from the United States. The United States is accelerating the use of its financing, production capacity, and operational advantages to continuously hedge and sideline Europe's efforts to enhance its defense industry capabilities. This means that in the future, it will become even more difficult for European countries to independently develop "trump card" weapons. Recently, the Netherlands plans to purchase cruise missiles from the United States, and Norwegian company Kongsberg will also collaborate with American company Raytheon to produce a new generation of "Joint Strike Missiles" for the F-35 fighter jet. Many European countries that have already equipped or are in the process of purchasing F-35 fighter jets are likely to prioritize the United States as their partner or even reliance in the field of land-based cruise missiles. This will make the potential demand for the new missile jointly developed by the four European countries even more sluggish, and the funding chain for its research and production may be more difficult to ensure. (New Society)
Edit：He Chuanning Responsible editor：Su Suiyue
Source：中国国防报
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