The "Half Year Report" of China's economy for 2024 has been released, with a growth rate of 5%, still maintaining a leading position globally
2024-07-19
The "Half Year Report" on China's Economy for 2024, which is stable with progress, was recently released. According to preliminary calculations by the National Bureau of Statistics, the gross domestic product (GDP) in the first half of this year exceeded 6 trillion yuan, reaching 61683.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5% at constant prices. By quarter, the gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first quarter and 4.7% in the second quarter. In the first half of the year, the complexity and uncertainty of the external environment significantly increased, and domestic structural adjustments continued to deepen, bringing new challenges to economic development. However, factors such as the sustained release of macroeconomic policy effects, the recovery of external demand, and the accelerated development of new quality productivity also formed new support. How to evaluate the performance of China's economy in the first half of this year? What are the highlights? The reporter conducted an interview on this matter. The Chinese economy continues to recover and improve, showing characteristics of overall stability, structural optimization, and quality improvement. Observing the economic operation, we usually look at the four macro indicators of economic growth, employment, prices, and international balance of payments. From the data, the overall economic growth is stable, and a growth rate of 5% will still maintain a leading position globally; The overall employment situation is stable, with an average urban survey unemployment rate of 5.1% in the first half of the year, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the same period last year; The price level has moderately rebounded, with the consumer price index for residents rising by 0.1% year-on-year in the first half of the year, with a 0.3% increase in the second quarter; The balance of international payments is basically balanced, the scale of imports and exports has reached a new historical high, and foreign exchange reserves have remained stable at over 3.2 trillion US dollars. In the first half of the year, the Chinese economy continued to recover and improve, showing characteristics of overall stability, structural optimization, and quality improvement Dong Yu, Executive Vice President of the China Development Planning Institute at Tsinghua University, told reporters that against the backdrop of a complex and severe external environment coupled with prominent structural and cyclical contradictions in China, this report card is hard won. Based on demand, the "three pillars" of consumption, investment, and net exports continue to show a positive trend. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the total retail sales of consumer goods in the first half of the year reached 2.3596 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%. Service retail sales increased by 7.5% year-on-year; National fixed assets investment (excluding farmers) was 24539.1 billion yuan, up 3.9% year on year, and 8.5% after deducting real estate development investment; The total import and export volume of goods was 2116.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%. In the first half of the year, the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth was 60.5%, driving GDP growth by 3 percentage points. Since the beginning of this year, a series of policies to expand domestic demand and promote consumption have been continuously effective, with consumption potential continuously released, service consumption showing good growth momentum, and consumer demand continuing to recover, playing a significant role in driving economic growth, "said Zhao Tonglu, Director of the National Economic Accounting Department of the National Bureau of Statistics. Looking at the supply, the growth of the three industries is stable, and the production and supply are steadily increasing. In the first half of the year, the agricultural production situation remained stable, with a bountiful summer harvest and stable animal husbandry production. The added value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery increased by 3.7% year-on-year, driving economic growth by 0.2 percentage points. Industrial production grew rapidly, with industrial added value increasing by 6.0% year-on-year, driving economic growth by 1.9 percentage points. The service industry continues to recover, with information transmission, software, and information technology services, leasing, and business services continuing to develop rapidly. The added value increased by 11.9% and 9.8% year-on-year, respectively, driving a total economic growth of 1.0 percentage point; The holiday economy related industries such as transportation, warehousing and postal services, accommodation and catering have developed well, with added value increasing by 6.9% and 6.6% respectively year-on-year, driving a total economic growth of 0.4 percentage points. Since the beginning of this year, the central government has introduced a series of macroeconomic regulation measures. Dong Yu believes that the macro policy is ahead of the rest, actively introducing large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade in, adjusting and optimizing the real estate policy, issuing ultra long term special treasury bond and other measures, which have played a positive role in promoting stable economic operation and guiding industrial transformation and upgrading. The policy of expanding domestic demand continues to strengthen, and the demand for equipment updates and trade in of consumer goods is gradually being released, driving rapid growth in related equipment production and benefiting multiple key industries. Driven by the large-scale equipment renewal policy, the investment in the purchase of equipment and tools in the first half of the year increased by 17.3% year on year, driving the investment in fixed assets investment to increase by 2.1 percentage points, with a contribution rate of 54.8%; The investment in technological transformation of manufacturing industry increased by 10.0%, which is 0.5 percentage points higher than the investment in manufacturing industry. The policy of exchanging old for new consumer goods has guided residents to release their consumption potential in an orderly manner, playing a certain "catalytic" role in driving the growth of durable consumer goods such as automobiles and home appliances. In the first half of the year, the retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment by units above designated size increased by 3.1% year-on-year, accelerating by 2.1 percentage points compared to the same period last year. In the next stage, we must not only strengthen our confidence in development, but also see the strong resilience, enormous potential, and favorable support of economic development; We must also adhere to bottom line thinking, fully estimate the difficulties, challenges, and uncertainties in development, adhere to the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability through progress, establishing first and then breaking through, better coordinate stable growth and increasing momentum, coordinate the expansion of domestic demand and deepening of supply side structural reform, coordinate development and security, further implement macro policies, make precise and sustained efforts, form a joint force, and promote sustained and healthy economic development The spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics stated. The trend of transitioning from "new" to "green" is evident, and the scale of foreign trade has reached a new high. While the basic structure of the Chinese economy remains stable, the quality of economic development continues to improve. In the first half of the year, industrial production above designated size in China continued its rapid growth trend since the fourth quarter of last year, industrial product exports accelerated month by month, enterprise profits maintained growth, the pace of high-end, intelligent, and green development in manufacturing accelerated, high-quality development continued to advance, and the overall operation of the industrial economy maintained a stable and positive trend. In the industrial field, there is a clear trend of transitioning from 'new' to 'green'. Represented by the high growth rate of production and investment in high-tech manufacturing, in the first half of the year, the added value of high-tech manufacturing above designated size increased by 8.7% year-on-year, accounting for 15.8% of the proportion of added value in industries above designated size; Investment in high-tech industries increased by 10.6% year-on-year, with a growth rate 6.7 percentage points higher than total investment Dong Yu said. Intelligent green new products such as 3D printing equipment, new energy vehicles, and integrated circuits have shown impressive performance, with production maintaining double-digit growth; The total electricity generation of industrial hydropower, nuclear power, wind power, and solar power above designated size increased by 13.4% year-on-year, accounting for an increased proportion of industrial power generation above designated size; The energy consumption per unit of GDP continues to decline... If the amount of growth reflects the "stability" of economic operation, then the effectiveness of transformation and the quality of development are more evident in the "progress" aspect. This indicates that the Chinese economy will firmly follow the path of high-quality development, and some new pillar industries have become increasingly important in the national economy, with good growth opportunities around the forefront of new quality productivity. China is also pursuing more balanced development, balancing the relationship between economy and people's livelihood, economy and ecology while promoting economic growth Dong Yu said. The scale of foreign trade has reached a new high. In the first half of the year, China's foreign trade scale exceeded 21 trillion yuan for the first time, and the growth rate of imports and exports accelerated quarter by quarter. In the second quarter, it increased by 7.4%, which was 2.5 and 5.7 percentage points higher than the first quarter and the fourth quarter of last year, respectively. The positive momentum of foreign trade has been further consolidated. Looking at exports, China's total export value in the first half of the year was 12.13 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.9%. Among them, mechanical and electrical products accounted for nearly 60% of exports, while exports of automatic data processing equipment and its components, integrated circuits, and automobiles increased by 10.3%, 25.6%, and 22.2%, respectively. Looking at imports, China's total import value in the first half of the year was 9.04 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.2%. Among them, imported mechanical and electrical products amounted to 3.25 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.1%; The import volume of major commodities such as iron ore, coal, and natural gas has increased. The impressive performance of imports and exports in the first half of this year is a reflection of the world economic recovery, the steady progress of China's economy, and the resilience of foreign trade Zhang Xiaotao, Dean of the School of International Economics and Trade at Central University of Finance and Economics, told reporters that the rapid growth rate of exports reflects the improvement of external demand and the significant advantages of Chinese manufacturing. Our country has a complete range of industrial categories, presenting strong competitiveness in labor-intensive goods, mechanical and electrical products, and the "new three types". The rapid growth rate of imports reflects the sustained recovery of domestic demand, which has generated strong demand for mineral resources and energy products, manufacturing intermediates, and final consumer goods. The development of foreign trade still needs to be vigilant in times of peace. The world economic recovery still faces instability, and trade protectionism, geopolitical factors, and other uncertainties have brought about global trade activities, posing unprecedented challenges to China's foreign trade development. With the active adjustment and response of domestic enterprises, the introduction of various policies to stabilize foreign trade and foreign investment, and the gradual release of the dividends of China's institutional opening-up, China's position, influence, and competitiveness in global division of labor and commodity production are stable Zhang Xiaotao said. The fundamentals of stable economic operation and long-term improvement have not changed, and the trend of high-quality development has not changed. To achieve the expected development goals for the whole year, we have confidence and foundation. To assess the Chinese economy, we need to see both the short-term fluctuations and the long-term development trend. In the short term, the slowdown in economic growth in the second quarter is influenced by short-term factors such as extreme weather and frequent floods, which also reflect the increasing difficulties and challenges in the current economic operation, especially the prominent problem of insufficient domestic effective demand and the lack of smooth domestic circulation The spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics said that the fundamentals of stable economic operation and long-term improvement have not changed, and the trend of high-quality development has not changed. From the perspective of supply support, China has achieved another bumper harvest of summer grain and oil, providing favorable conditions for promoting stable economic operation, ensuring and improving people's livelihoods. As the foundation of the real economy, the manufacturing industry continues to expand in scale, steadily increase in proportion, and continuously optimize its structure. The ability to ensure the security of important industrial and supply chains has been enhanced, which is not only a highlight of economic operation in the first half of the year, but also an important support for stable growth in the second half of the year. From the perspective of demand support, the world economy has moderately recovered, and some major economies have entered the inventory replenishment cycle. The upward cycle of industries such as consumer electronics is expected to continue, which is conducive to improving China's foreign demand. At the same time, there is enormous potential for the demand for clothing, food, housing, transportation, and spiritual and cultural needs of Chinese residents, and summer vacation, National Day holiday, and other events can also help drive consumption recovery. There is still a lot of room for investment in weak areas, weak links, and new fields and tracks. Accelerating the issuance and construction of "dual" (national major strategic implementation and key area security capacity building) projects is also conducive to driving investment growth. From the perspective of power support, the pace of transformation and upgrading of traditional industries in China is accelerating, and strategic emerging industries such as new energy, new materials, and high-end equipment manufacturing are constantly growing, which helps to hedge downward pressure and enhance upward momentum. The development vitality of new consumption, new infrastructure and other fields is also constantly being released. From the perspective of policy support, the effect of large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade in policy is constantly emerging, and the special bonds and ultra long term special treasury bond issued in the early stage are gradually transformed into physical workload. Strengthening policy coordination and comprehensive implementation will continue to form policy synergy, providing favorable policy conditions for the smooth operation of the economy. There are fluctuations in the form, but the trend is still positive. On July 16th, the International Monetary Fund released its World Economic Outlook report, raising its forecast for China's economic growth rate this year to 5%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from its April forecast. We believe that China still has considerable policy space The Director General of the World Trade Organization, Evira, stated that despite some economic challenges, China has the ability to take necessary measures to boost the economy, some of which have already begun to have a positive impact. “
Edit：NingChangRun Responsible editor：LiaoXin
Source：ZHONGGUO JIJIAN JIANCHA BAO
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