Perspective on the "Half Year Report" of China's Economy in 2024
2024-07-16
On July 15th, the National Bureau of Statistics released the "Half Year Report" on the Chinese economy for 2024——
In the first half of the year, China's gross domestic product (GDP) was 61.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%. The overall operation was stable and steady, with new driving forces accelerating growth and new progress made in high-quality development.
This year is a crucial year for achieving the goals and tasks of the 14th Five Year Plan.
The fundamentals of stable economic operation and long-term improvement have not changed
In the first half of this year, the external environment has become more complex, severe, and uncertain. In the first half of the year, China's GDP grew by 5.0% year-on-year; In the second quarter, the growth rate was 4.7%, which was slightly lower than the first quarter.
In response, a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics stated that in the short term, the slowdown in economic growth in the second quarter is influenced by short-term factors such as extreme weather and frequent rainfall and waterlogging disasters. However, the fundamentals of stable economic operation and long-term improvement have not changed. The economic volume in the second quarter exceeded 32 trillion yuan, and the industrial added value and total import and export of goods both exceeded 10 trillion yuan. The overall target scale is still considerable.
Upon closer inspection of this' semi annual report ', domestic demand continues to recover while external demand has improved.
Looking inward, in the first half of the year, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year, of which the retail sales of services increased by 7.5% year-on-year. The national fixed assets investment increased by 3.9% year on year. Although the real estate investment operated at a low level, the investment in infrastructure and manufacturing increased by 5.4% and 9.5% respectively, showing a warm recovery.
Looking outward, in the first half of the year, the total import and export volume of goods increased by 6.1% year-on-year. Among them, foreign trade in the second quarter increased by 7.4% year-on-year, an increase of 2.5 and 5.7 percentage points respectively compared to the first quarter and the fourth quarter of last year, and the quarterly trend continued to improve. Foreign exchange reserves remain stable at over 3.2 trillion US dollars.
Maintaining employment and price stability is an important indicator of stable economic operation. In the first half of the year, the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% year-on-year, and the core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose by 0.7% year-on-year, maintaining a moderate increase. The average national urban survey unemployment rate is 5.1%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the first quarter and 0.2 percentage points from the same period last year.
While the fundamentals of the Chinese economy remain stable, the quality of economic development continues to improve.
In the first half of the year, investment in high-tech industries increased by 10.6% year-on-year, which was 6.7 percentage points faster than total investment; The added value of high-tech manufacturing industries above a certain scale increased by 8.7% year-on-year; The proportion of non fossil energy consumption to total energy consumption increased by 1.9 percentage points year-on-year; The online retail sales of physical goods increased by 8.8% year-on-year... These indicators confirm the continuous optimization of China's economic structure and the accelerated cultivation and growth of new driving forces.
In the first half of the year, the per capita disposable income of residents in China was 20733 yuan, a nominal increase of 5.4% year-on-year, and an actual increase of 5.3% after deducting price factors.
There are fluctuations in the form, but the trend is still positive. Short term fluctuations will not change the long-term positive trend, "said a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics. Observing from a global perspective, China's economic performance is still good. In the first quarter, the GDP growth rate was faster than that of the United States, the eurozone, Japan, and other countries. Combined with the domestic and international situation in the second quarter, it is expected that China's economic growth rate will continue to lead in the first half of the year and remain an important engine and stabilizing force for world economic growth.
The policy effect continues to emerge, releasing the warmth of growth
Since the beginning of this year, facing the difficulties and challenges faced by the economic operation, various regions and departments have made great efforts to implement various macro policies and achieved remarkable results.
The reporter found that a series of policy measures have been intensively introduced this year, especially since the beginning of the second quarter, and the policy effects have continued to show——
The policy of expanding domestic demand continues to strengthen. In March, China introduced a plan to promote large-scale equipment upgrades and trade in of consumer goods, which identified 20 key tasks in 5 areas. The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments recently issued the "Measures for Creating New Consumption Scenarios and Cultivating New Consumption Growth Points", further cultivating and strengthening new consumption growth points.
Statistics show that in the first half of the year, the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth was 60.5%, driving GDP growth by 3.0 percentage points. Driven by the large-scale equipment renewal policy, the investment in the purchase of equipment and tools in the first half of the year increased by 17.3% year on year, driving the investment in fixed assets investment by 2.1 percentage points, with a contribution rate of 54.8%.
The issuance of ultra long term special treasury bond can not only stimulate current investment and consumption, but also build a solid foundation for long-term high-quality development. As of July 5, the Ministry of Finance has issued seven ultra long term special treasury bond, with a total issuance scale of 308 billion yuan. In the first half of the year, infrastructure investment increased by 5.4% year-on-year, 1.5 percentage points faster than total investment, driving a growth of 1.2 percentage points in total investment.
Since the beginning of this year, real estate policies have been further adjusted and optimized, from the cancellation of the national minimum housing loan interest rate, the reduction of down payment ratios and housing provident fund loan interest rates, to the expansion of distribution type affordable housing to cities and counties across the country.
With the gradual release of policy effects, the activity of the real estate market has increased recently. In the first half of the year, the decline in sales area and sales revenue of newly-built commercial housing nationwide narrowed by 1.3 and 2.9 percentage points compared to the period from January to May, and the "three major projects" of real estate drove real estate development investment by 0.9 percentage points.
"The effect of large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade in policy is constantly emerging, and the special bonds and ultra long term special treasury bond issued in the early stage are gradually transformed into physical workload. Strengthening policy coordination and comprehensive implementation will continue to form policy synergy, providing favorable policy conditions for the smooth operation of the economy," said a spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics.
Having confidence and foundation to achieve annual goals
What is the trend of the Chinese economy in the second half of the year? Can we achieve the expected annual economic development goals?
The goal of around 5% can be achieved through hard work, and China remains the largest contributor to global economic growth. From the Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference in March to the Summer Davos Forum in June, there have been constant voices optimistic about China's economic prospects.
Recently, international institutions such as the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and UBS have raised their expectations for China's economic growth this year, casting a vote of confidence in the country's economic prospects.
Confidence comes from the new driving force of economic transformation and upgrading——
Robotic arms replace traditional workers, textile industry is equipped with 'smart brains', drone delivery brings new consumer experiences
The latest data shows that at present, there are 463000 high-tech enterprises in China, and the installed capacity of industrial robots accounts for more than 50% of the world's total. The industrial Internet has achieved full coverage of industrial categories. The development of digital economy and green low-carbon will lead to more new growth points.
Confidence comes from the new vitality stimulated by reform——
The first administrative regulation on fair competition review, the "Regulations on Fair Competition Review," will officially come into effect on August 1st.
Intensify efforts to break regional blockades and industry monopolies, and create a favorable market environment; Accelerate the improvement of basic systems such as market access, property rights protection and trading, data information, and social credit... The construction of a unified national market is progressing steadily, and market vitality will continue to be released.
Confidence comes from the new opportunities brought by open cooperation——
At the beginning of this month, Decathlon Beijing Wukesong Store unveiled its brand new image to the public. "In the next two years, Decathlon plans to open 20 to 30 new stores every year," said Zhang Chundi, vice president of Decathlon China.
Sam's Club has settled in Zhongshan, Guangdong. Costco, the first member store in mainland China with a gas station, has made its debut in Nanjing, Jiangsu. GE Healthcare has invested an additional 380 million yuan in the construction of its Shanghai base... More and more multinational companies are increasing their investment and accelerating their layout.
For the first time, a negative list management system has been established nationwide for cross-border service trade, pilot work has been carried out to expand the opening up of value-added telecommunications services to the outside world, and several policy measures have been introduced to further support foreign institutions' investment in domestic technology-based enterprises... A series of policy measures have been successively introduced, demonstrating China's firm determination to promote reform and development through opening up.
By maintaining strategic determination and continuously improving the quality of development, we have confidence and confidence in achieving this year's development goals, and promoting the Chinese economy to continue to move forward along the path of high-quality development.
Edit：He Chuanning Responsible editor：Su Suiyue
Source：Xinhua
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