Continue to rebound and improve! These indicators look at the Chinese economy in May
2024-06-18
Entering the middle of the year, the operational situation of China's economy has received much attention. On June 17th, the National Bureau of Statistics introduced the operation of the national economy in May, and various economic indicators showed a steady recovery trend. Previously, international institutions have raised their expectations for China's economic growth. The economy is unstable, and fundamentals are crucial - the driving force of domestic demand continues to be activated. On the consumer side, the total retail sales of consumer goods in May reached 3921.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points compared to the previous month; On the investment side, in the first five months, the national fixed assets investment (excluding farmers) was 188006 billion yuan, up 4% year on year. Among them, investment in manufacturing and high-tech industries increased by 9.6% and 11.5% respectively. External demand continues to recover and improve. Since the beginning of this year, China's foreign trade has embarked on a difficult rebound curve. In May, China's total import and export of goods increased by 8.6% year-on-year, an increase of 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month. In the first five months, China's total import and export of goods reached 17504.2 billion yuan, reaching a new historical high. The macroeconomic policy effects continue to be released. In May, the added value of industries above designated size in China increased by 5.6% year-on-year, with 90% of regions and 80% of industries achieving growth. The service industry production index increased by 4.8% year-on-year, 1.3 percentage points faster than the previous month. Price stabilization is an important indicator of economic stability. In May, the overall trend of consumer prices remained stable, with the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) increasing by 0.3% year-on-year. Many indicators related to the quality of development highlight new economic momentum and vitality - focusing on new quality productivity, and innovation enthusiasm is surging in various regions. In May, the added value of high-tech manufacturing industry above designated size in China increased by 10% year-on-year, which is 4.4 percentage points faster than that of all industries above designated size. In the first five months, investment in equipment and tools procurement increased by 17.5% year-on-year, while investment in manufacturing technology transformation increased by 10% year-on-year. This will further stimulate the new quality productivity in traditional manufacturing. The digital economy is flourishing, and the data reflecting intelligent manufacturing is very impressive. In May, the added value of the intelligent unmanned aerial vehicle manufacturing industry increased by 75% year-on-year, and the added value of the intelligent vehicle equipment manufacturing industry increased by 19.7%. With the new formats and models of e-commerce enriching consumer supply, the scale of the online consumer market is also continuously expanding. From January to May, the online retail sales of physical goods increased by 11.5% year-on-year, accounting for 0.8 percentage points more than the total retail sales of consumer goods in society from January to April. It should also be noted that the complexity and severity of the current external environment have increased, effective domestic demand is still insufficient, and endogenous momentum still needs to be strengthened. Recently, a series of policies have continued to work - since the "gate opening" in May, the issuance of ultra long term special treasury bond has been carried out in an orderly manner. It was issued four times on May 17, May 24, June 7, and June 14, with a total amount of 160 billion yuan; To further support the development of cross-border e-commerce, the Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments issued the "Opinions on Expanding Cross border E-commerce Exports and Promoting Overseas Warehouse Construction" in June, proposing multiple measures to promote the high-quality development of cross-border e-commerce overseas warehouses; The Regulations on Fair Competition Review were announced to the public on June 13th and will come into effect on August 1st; Policies in various fields are coordinated and coordinated, working together to form a joint force, and China's economic transformation and upgrading continue to advance. Following the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raising China's economic growth forecast for this year to 5%, the World Bank released a China Economic Briefing on June 14th, raising China's economic growth forecast for 2024 by 0.3 percentage points. The reasons for this are not only that China's exports are stronger than expected, but also the impact of various policy implementation. Hua Maya, Director of the China Bureau of the World Bank, stated that implementing structural reforms in China will help maintain growth momentum in the short term and achieve long-term goals. Liu Aihua, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, said at the press conference of the State Council Information Office on the 17th that the fundamentals of China's economic recovery and long-term improvement have not changed. From the analysis of factors such as production demand and policy support, the economy is expected to continue its upward trend. The Chinese economy is a vast ocean, not a small pond. Although the external environment is complex and ever-changing, and the domestic economy also faces some difficulties and challenges, with the continuous cultivation and enhancement of innovation momentum and the continuous release of the potential of the super large market, the Chinese economy has the confidence and strength to break through the waves and move forward. (Lai Xin She)
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