The first weekend of the new policy in Guangzhou's real estate market: reduced market wait-and-see sentiment and improved customer decision-making efficiency
2024-06-04
The first weekend of June is also the first weekend after Guangzhou released its new policies on real estate optimization and adjustment. Although the continuous rain on the first day affected some visitor numbers, the market's feedback on the new policy was not dampened by the heavy rain. From June 1st to 2nd, multiple projects in the Guangzhou real estate market reported signs of a rebound. The main feature of this new policy is that, under the premise of an increase in consultation volume compared to the past, the decision-making efficiency of customers has greatly improved, and the market's wait-and-see sentiment has further weakened. According to monitoring data from Hefu Research Institute, there was a significant increase in old customer visits and new customer visits last week, with a 21% month on month increase in property visits; The month on month increase in transaction volume was more significant, with an increase of about 37%, mainly due to the new policy driving and some project price concessions, enhancing customer confidence, shortening decision-making time, and thus boosting overall transaction volume. Projects with significantly improved transactions all have the conditions of "down payment reduction, interest rate reduction, and price reduction", which can be said to be indispensable. After the release of the "5.28" real estate optimization and adjustment policy in Guangzhou, after multiple visits and inquiries from development enterprises, intermediaries, and industry experts, the reporter felt that everyone's evaluation of this new policy tends to be consistent: they all believe that this is a wave of substantive positive policy "combination punches", which jointly affect the market from multiple dimensions such as credit, administration, and housing provident fund. Currently, the real recovery of the market in terms of quantity still needs a release period of 1-3 months, and then enters the stable period of this year. The wait-and-see sentiment has decreased and decision-making efficiency has improved. This weekend, Zhonghai Dajing, which has always been at the top of the real estate sales list, has received a continuous stream of visitors. The usual weekly visit volume of 300 groups has doubled in the week when the new policy was introduced. From the perspective of the overall project, the market rebound after the new policy is not only reflected in the number of visits, but also in the week before the new policy, the sales of the project doubled in the week of policy release. Gao Zhihong, Marketing Director of Zhonghai Dajing, said, "In recent days, the Guangzhou housing trade in activity, combined with the new policy effect, has given the market a strong signal of recovery. The most obvious thing is that the market's wait-and-see sentiment is weakening, and the decision-making efficiency of customers has improved." Previously, the average transaction cycle of customers for this project was about half a month, but now more and more transactions are completed within a week. Gao Zhihong revealed that "some customers have been watching for two or three years before, and after the new policy, they decisively subscribed to a set." Many projects in the market have performed similarly after the new policy. The Tianhe Wenjin Mansion project under Wuhan United Investment Holdings also reached a small peak last week. "Since the release of the new policy on the 28th, the number of visitors has significantly increased. One of the sets sold on June 1st was visited by a customer in July last year, and they have only been contacted online since then. This time, they have finally been successfully arranged to return to the project and successfully subscribed." said Luo Zhen, the marketing manager of Wuhan Liantou Real Estate in Guangzhou. Many old customers have returned after the new policy. Based on feedback from many projects, the industry generally believes that optimizing regulatory policies can lead to a more stable real estate market, thereby reducing people's wait-and-see sentiment and allowing market sentiment to enter a stable period. The above chain effect is reflected in the project, and the most direct one is the transaction conversion rate of old customers. He Bin, Director of the Marketing and Asset Management Center of Hesheng Chuangzhan Guangzhou Company, revealed that "just two or three days after the new policy was introduced, some old customers have already made decisions before the weekend, and everyone has a clearer expectation of the market." He Bin believes that the previous strong market observation atmosphere did not mean a lack of purchasing demand, but a lack of stable and definite market predictions, as well as a node that can prompt everyone to make decisions. Now, the new policy has achieved such a market "decision point", eliminating some observers' wavering concerns. Feng Peiyun, Chief Market Analyst of Hefu Brilliance Guangzhou Company, said that compared to peripheral projects, urban projects have performed more outstandingly. Among them, urban projects with a total price range of more than 3-5 million yuan have been stimulated by the new policy and price discounts. Many customers who originally had insufficient down payment but could afford monthly supply have stopped watching and made purchases, and the transaction has improved significantly. However, the wait-and-see sentiment of the external demand customers remains strong. The overlapping effect of policies is gradually becoming apparent, and the market is improving. Compared to the big ups and downs in 2023, the current bottoming out and recovery trend is slow, but it is expected to be more stable and sustainable. The dual release of supply and demand, enhanced market liquidity, and timely and enthusiastic market response after the new policy have made everyone's expectations for the future clearer. "After the release, more and more homeowners and buyers have come to consult." The salesperson of Vanke City Light told reporters that the homeowners consulted are mainly in Zone F, as the building has already obtained a property certificate and many properties are sold on second-hand platforms. For the rest of the areas that have not obtained a property certificate, there are currently few people interested. According to market data from Beike Guangzhou, the number of newly listed second-hand houses in the city has doubled and surged after the "5.28" new policy, and the average transaction price has also exceeded the highest limit of the month. Many second-hand houses are still the best choice for homebuyers due to their existing housing conditions, location advantages, and mature supporting facilities. However, the relaxation of the sales restriction policy in this new policy may greatly increase the supply and liquidity of the second-hand market. The sales personnel of Vanke mentioned above stated that the increase in new properties entering the market in recent days will to some extent divert the purchasing power of new properties. One of the reasons why some new homes that have not been in their second year are in a hurry to sell is because the interest rate was high when they were bought before, and now it is as low as 3.4%, which is obviously more attractive. Faced with the potential market impact of new homes, He Bin believes that they should be viewed in different directions in the short and medium term. Firstly, in the short term, it will indeed have a certain impact on the primary market, bringing pressure on new home sales. However, in the medium to long term, the increase in listing volume has enhanced market liquidity, and consumers have more product types to choose from, which is beneficial for stimulating market recovery and dispelling wait-and-see sentiment. Both supply and demand have been released and satisfied, and a major feature of this new policy is that it makes it easier to "get on the car" and "trade in". In contrast, it also makes "getting new" easier than "getting old". In the past, for many people, selling old houses was a necessary condition for buying new ones. Now, the down payment ratio and loan interest rates have dropped to new lows, and buying a new house no longer requires a large amount of capital preparation, reducing consumer concerns. However, selling old items remains an unavoidable hurdle for the market. At this point, the combination of positive and negative effects is highlighted, and the exchange of old for new housing in Guangzhou has further highlighted the bottom-up and beneficial nature of services under the new policies. Gao Zhihong stated that some of the new customers in the Dajing project were affected by the new policies, which affected the logic and order of the replacement. Some customers who bought new houses are no longer bound by the premise of "selling old" and do not need to rely on the replacement to raise a down payment first. The old houses can be handed over to the replacement team for gradual sale. Luo Zhen told reporters that Tianhe Wenjin Mansion is an improvement project, with the vast majority of customers being replacement groups. Optimizing assets and improving living quality through the "sell one buy one" approach is its main approach. This project is one of the first "old for new" projects in Guangzhou. Since May, more than ten new houses have been sold by "old for new" customers, one of whom successfully sold an old house last Friday. After the new policy, it changed from "selling first and then selling" to selling and buying simultaneously, effectively releasing the pressure on the supply and demand sides of the primary and secondary markets, and breaking through the "bottleneck" that formed a circulation loop between the two markets. In short, to put it in layman's terms within the real estate industry, facing the current real estate market dominated by "demand oriented" and "improvement oriented" industries, the fundamental problem solved by the new policy is whether it can be "affordable" and when to "buy". Many people have also found answers in the new policy. How will the real estate market go after benefiting the "policy package"? The "5.28" new policy has sparked a new wave in the market, and many people have made new predictions about the future market trend: competition between regions, sectors, and projects will become more intense, and the market will accelerate towards differentiation. This seems to be a common consensus in the industry. The benefits of the new policy to the central city are self-evident. What is left after the real estate market has experienced "de foam"? At the moment when the new policy lifted restrictions on sales and innovatively recognized administrative regions as units, regional competition also entered a deeper realm, with more multi-level variables and meanings. What is the future market "rolling"? In the development of cities, even regional benefits are not fixed. Being stubborn and self proclaimed will only be washed away by the waves in the future market surfing. The current real estate market reflects the people's yearning for a better life, with increasingly high customer demands. The cost-effectiveness and quality of products need to be continuously optimized and improved. The era of closely focusing on location, layout, and decoration has become a thing of the past. Marketing directors are well aware that the future real estate market will not be dominated by prices, but by good products and services. Commercial housing will increasingly belong to asset attributes, and the core assets in the core area still have their core customer group. Such products will not be greatly affected by the market environment. With the continuous improvement of the affordable housing system, having a place to live in the future is no longer a dream, and the significance of real estate price competition is not significant In He Bin's view, after the market returns to its residential nature, the core of future competition lies in good products and good services. Last year, the Luo Zhen team conducted a professional project to study the price mechanism of new and old houses in the same area, predicting a possible price ratio of 1:0.8 between new and old products. Luo Zhen believes that with the continuous improvement of design specifications and standards for commercial housing in Guangzhou, the occupancy rate of new houses has reached 100%. With the support of related high-end warehouses, wind and rain corridors, indoor swimming pools, and community commerce, people's desire to purchase new houses is likely to be higher than that of old houses in the same sector. At present, the construction, design, and supporting facilities of the commodity housing market are all keeping pace with the times. Luo Zhen revealed that the dividends of old products have been maximized in the past few years. Some high net worth individuals have started to sell old houses in core sectors and switch to new houses in newly popular sectors. "Now we are looking at the 'micro sector' when buying houses. For example, the Olympic sports sector of Tianhe is not as core as the Pearl River New Town, but with the increase of supply in the main city in the past two years, high-quality new houses have gathered in this sector, and the competition is very fierce. Obviously, the price performance ratio of other old projects in the same area is lower." Luo Zhen said that currently, not only is there regional differentiation, but more differentiation is moving towards micro sectors. Relevant market analysis has reached a refined level on a project by project basis. In particular, in response to the new policy, the purchase of houses should be based on administrative regions as the smallest recognized unit. Luo Zhen looks forward to Guangzhou introducing more detailed policies in the future: "Recently, each district in Wuhan has its own favorable policies, as the implementation of policies is relatively strong, such as subsidies for buying houses and tax reductions." In addition to the favorable policies for the C-end, the current industry competition has also forced many enterprises to continue increasing costs, with the aim of further improving products and services. He Bin believes that there is no need to stimulate consumption with good products and services, and people are willing to pay for a better life at all times. "Fully ensuring delivery and building delivery is just the bottom line of the industry, and better policy support and tilt are needed," He Bin said. He expects the government to support more B2B platforms, strengthen brands, promote the implementation of whitelists, and continuously smooth financing channels for enterprises. (Lai Xin She)
Edit：Lubaikang Responsible editor：Chenze
Source：southcn.com
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