The activity of ultra long term special treasury bond bonds is expected to increase
2024-05-23
The 30-year ultra long term special treasury bond have been listed on the secondary market since May 22, and their trading prices have soared by more than 20% in the exchange market, triggering temporary suspension twice, which has not caused waves in the inter-bank market. The insiders said that the price rise of super long term special treasury bond in the secondary market is not common without significant changes in market interest rates, and the trading volume is small, so investors need to be treated rationally. With the gradual increase in the supply of ultra long term special treasury bond and the continuous enrichment of derivatives, its trading activity is expected to gradually increase. The quotation difference is large. On May 22, 30-year ultra long term special treasury bond were listed in the secondary market, but there was a large difference in the quotation in the exchange market and the inter-bank market. The "24 Special Countries 01" listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange rose by 13.1% within one minute of opening, triggering a temporary suspension of trading. Trading was suspended by the Shanghai Stock Exchange at 9:30 am and resumed from 10:00 pm. After resuming trading, the upward trend of "24 Special Countries 01" remained unchanged. According to Wind data, within less than 10 minutes of resuming trading, "24 Special Country 01" surged again to 125.00 yuan, resulting in a second suspension by the Shanghai Stock Exchange, which lasted until 15:27. After the second resumption of trading, "24 Special Country 01" experienced a decline and rose 1.32% as of the close. The "Special Country 2401" listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange has also been temporarily suspended for trading twice during the trading session. "Special Country 2401" was temporarily suspended for the first time due to its increase of more than 10%. It was temporarily suspended at 11:14 and resumed trading at 13:14; The second trading suspension was temporarily suspended from 13:23 due to its increase exceeding 20%, and resumed trading at 15:27. As of the close, "Special Country 2401" closed up 19.70%. In the interbank market, Wind data shows that as of the closing, the latest transaction yield quoted by the broker of "24 Special treasury bond 01" is 2.57%, which is equal to the coupon rate. The price difference between the exchange market and the interbank market, which can be transferred through multiple channels, has given rise to the demand for individual investors to switch markets. "On May 20, I bought 500 30-year super long term special treasury bond at the counter of China Merchants Bank. On the 22nd, the price of the treasury bond soared in the exchange market. I wanted to sell them in the Shanghai Stock Exchange or Shenzhen Stock Exchange. However, a financial manager told me that I bought them through the channels of China Merchants Bank, and if I wanted to sell them, I would have to sell them in the inter-bank market. However, if I sold them in the inter-bank market at that time, it would be a loss," said Wang, an investor in Beijing. In this regard, several bank financial managers explained that the ultra long term special treasury bond purchased through bank channels can be sold in the exchange market, but the transfer of custody business needs to be handled first. "If customers want to sell in the exchange market, they need to bring their ID card to the branch counter, perform transfer custody operations during trading hours, transfer custody to the securities firm account, and then proceed with subsequent operations. If they want to sell in the interbank market through our bank, customers need to go to the counter or operate online banking, and our bank's quotation is also based on the interbank market." said a wealth management manager at a branch of China Merchants Bank in Xicheng District, Beijing. Due to the "T+1" system of custody transfer business, bond prices listed for trading on the second day may not necessarily continue to increase on the first day. "The customer will only receive feedback tomorrow after undergoing a transfer of custody today. If the transfer is successful, trading can only be conducted on the exchange market. However, the price may not remain at today's high level tomorrow, and the transfer of custody also requires the customer to pay a certain amount of handling fee." The above financial manager explained. Later, a person from the stock issuing bank reminded that although the 30-year super long term special treasury bond bonds in the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange market rose significantly, the trading volume was very small. The value of bonds is closely related to the expected yield to maturity in the market, and such a high price increase is not common without significant changes in market interest rates. "Even if individual investors can now trade in the exchange market, they will not necessarily receive offers and will not be able to succeed in trading." The 30-year super long term special treasury bond listed and traded on May 22 are the first super long term special treasury bond issued by the Ministry of Finance through bidding on May 17. According to the issuance arrangement of the Ministry of Finance in 2024, there will also be 20-year, 30-year, and 50-year super long term special treasury bond issued subsequently. Industry insiders believe that the trading activity of subsequent ultra long term special treasury bond may increase. Zhang Jiqiang, an analyst with Huatai Securities, believes that after the issuance this year, the balance of 20 year, 30 year and 50 year super long term special treasury bond will reach 300 billion yuan, 919 billion yuan and 215 billion yuan respectively, especially the trading activity of 20 year and 50 year super long term special treasury bond may increase. At the same time, he said that to further enhance the activity of ultra long term special treasury bond bond trading, it is also necessary to expand the scale and enrich relevant derivatives tools. Liu Yu's team of Huaxi Securities believes that the significant increase in the single term supply of ultra long term special treasury bond in the future, changes in mainstream trading varieties and other factors are the key points for investors to adapt to the market. In combination with the experience of 10-year treasury bond and CDB bonds, the increase in the scale of single bonds and the proportion of the total scale of a certain period of time will often lead to higher liquidity, more small band opportunities and more fair pricing. (Lai Xin She)
Edit：Lubaikang Responsible editor：Chenze
Source：cs.com.cn
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