Resonance of stocks and bonds, net inflow of global funds, increased allocation of Chinese assets
2024-05-09
Chinese concept stocks, Hong Kong stocks, and A-shares all rose, and the RMB exchange rate rebounded - China's assets have collectively strengthened recently. Behind the rise in asset prices, global funds are increasing their allocation of Chinese assets. Recently, several foreign institutions such as UBS, Merrill Lynch, and Bank of America have clearly expressed their optimism towards the Chinese market, with foreign investors starting to reallocate Chinese assets and raising the rating of the Chinese stock market to over allocation. The positive changes in the market are due to factors such as improved overseas monetary environment, prominent cost-effectiveness of Chinese assets, and positive policy expectations. Industry insiders believe that factors such as the profitability of Chinese enterprises and the enthusiastic restoration of foreign investment in the allocation of "Chinese assets" are expected to continue to support the impressive performance of Chinese assets. In May, the stock and bond markets resonated with the influx of foreign investment, leading to a significant rise in China's capital market, especially the strong rise of Hong Kong stocks, which led the rise of major global indices. As of May 8th, based on the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSI), the Hong Kong stock market has rebounded by more than 20% from its low point in late January, and is far ahead of major global stock markets. As of May 6th, the Hang Seng Index has risen for 10 consecutive trading days, setting a record for the longest consecutive rise since February 2018. Behind the market rebound represented by the Hong Kong stock market, there has been a significant rebound in the willingness of global funds to allocate Chinese assets. "Northbound funds swept away the decline of a total net outflow of 139.6 billion yuan in the third and fourth quarters of last year, and a total net purchase of 68.2 billion yuan in the A-share market in the first quarter," said Meng Lei, China Equity Strategy Analyst at UBS Securities. According to a survey by HSBC Holdings, over 90% of emerging market funds are starting to increase their holdings in the Chinese stock market. The inflow of funds into the bond market and stock market resonates. The latest report from the International Finance Association (IIF) shows that in March this year, the Chinese stock and bond markets resumed net inflows of foreign investment for the first time since June last year, with stock market inflows of $1.7 billion and bond market inflows of $2.1 billion. As of April this year, foreign investors had bought Chinese bonds net for seven consecutive months. Wang Chunying, deputy director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said that in the first quarter of this year, foreign capital net increased its holdings of Chinese bonds by US $41.6 billion. The RMB exchange rate has also turned around and rebounded. Since May, the offshore RMB/USD exchange rate has temporarily recovered from the 7.17 mark, with a maximum increase of over 800 basis points compared to before the holiday. Previously, during the strong US dollar storm in April, the Chinese yuan showed stronger stability compared to other Asian currencies, with exchange rate fluctuations significantly smaller than major currencies such as the US dollar. The policy direction and capital flow are intertwined, and RMB assets have regained favor. Recently, foreign investment has accelerated the return of RMB assets, thanks to various factors supporting it. The improvement of overseas monetary environment is an important driving force. Zhong Zhengsheng, Chief Economist of Ping An Securities, stated that the recent expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut has rebounded, and global risk appetite has rebounded, driving capital flows to emerging market assets, including Chinese assets. Among them, Chinese concept stocks and Hong Kong stocks, which are more closely related to the liquidity of the US dollar, benefit more. The current valuation level of Chinese assets is relatively attractive, providing opportunities for international capital seeking value investment. In addition, the continuous release of positive signals from policies such as the new "National Ninth Article" has boosted market investment confidence. Policy expectations are beginning to emerge in the market, with market actions leading the fundamentals
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