The Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held a meeting on April 30th to analyze and study the current economic situation and economic work. "A good start and a positive recovery are the basic characteristics and trends of the current economic operation." After a scientific analysis of the economic situation, the meeting called for "adhering to seizing the momentum and avoiding being tight before being loose", and made specific arrangements for the next step of work. Some important suggestions are worth paying attention to. What is the current economic situation like? ——China's GDP growth rate in the first quarter reached 5.3%, far exceeding previous market forecasts, with a good start and a positive recovery. Recently, the Asian Development Bank, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, and Deutsche Bank have all raised their expectations for China's economic growth in 2024. The meeting believes that the current economic situation is characterized by rapid growth, structural optimization, and improved quality and efficiency, and the economy has achieved a good start. At the same time, the meeting pointed out that the sustained recovery of the economy still faces many challenges, mainly due to insufficient effective demand, high operational pressure on enterprises, multiple risks and hidden dangers in key areas, insufficient domestic circulation, and a significant increase in the complexity, severity, and uncertainty of the external environment. Sheng Lei, Deputy Director of the Investment Research Institute of the China Academy of Macroeconomics, told China News Finance that the overall tone of the meeting reflects the confidence and determination to seize the opportunity and promote the sustained and strong recovery of the Chinese economy. The first quarter of this year saw a good start to China's economy, consolidating and strengthening the trend of stabilization and recovery in important indicators such as manufacturing investment, infrastructure investment, and private investment since the end of last year. What are the next steps in economic work? Starting well, how can we effectively consolidate and enhance the positive trend of economic recovery? The meeting clearly called for "adhering to seizing the opportunity and avoiding being tight in the front and loose in the back". Sheng Lei believes that the conference is based on the advantages of China's stable economic foundation, multiple advantages, strong resilience, and great potential, while adhering to a problem oriented approach. On the basis of balancing the major relationships between macro and micro, fiscal and monetary, stock and increment, traditional and emerging industries, risk prevention and development promotion in China's economic process, the conference focuses on reform priorities and proposes a series of policy measures with outstanding traction and driving effects. ——The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to issue and make good use of ultra long term special treasury bond as soon as possible, accelerate the issuance and use of special treasury bond, maintain the necessary intensity of fiscal expenditure, and ensure that the basic level "three guarantees" are paid in full and on time. According to the 2024 government work report, it is planned to issue ultra long term special treasury bond for several consecutive years starting this year, which will be used specifically for the implementation of major national strategies and security capacity building in key areas. This year, 1 trillion yuan will be issued first. Yue Kai Securities Chief Economist Luo Zhiheng told China News Finance that although China's economy continues to recover, the problem of insufficient total demand has not been fundamentally improved. Therefore, it is necessary for policies to further exert force and move forward to avoid policy effects that may be less than expected due to tightening before loosening. The accelerated issuance of ultra long term special treasury bond and special bonds will help to form the physical workload as soon as possible, expand the total demand and optimize the supply structure. ——We need to flexibly use policy tools such as interest rates and reserve requirement ratios
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