The Federal Reserve's expectation of interest rate cuts has been repeatedly lowered, coupled with the escalating situation in the Middle East leading to a surge in safe haven demand, collectively driving the US dollar to its largest weekly increase in a year and a half last week. Emerging market economies, especially some Asian emerging market economies, have to once again engage in a "currency defense war". The US dollar's largest weekly increase in a year and a half shows that the strength of the US economy and its relative security as the world's largest trading currency have driven the US dollar to its largest weekly increase in a year and a half. Prior to this, the US dollar and US treasury bond bonds rose sharply on the 12th after it was reported that Iran might retaliate against Israel. Specific data shows that the US dollar index rose over 1.4% last week, recording its largest weekly increase since September 2022. On the one hand, after the release of the previously strong non farm employment data, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) in March once again exceeded market expectations, causing swap traders to delay their bets on the Fed's first interest rate cut in June and instead predict that the Fed will cut rates as early as September this year, with the number of rate cuts this year also being reduced to two. This also exacerbates the divergence in monetary policy between the Federal Reserve and other major central banks around the world. At the same time, concerns about the potential escalation of the situation in the Middle East also boosted investors' safe haven buying of the US dollar last week. According to data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), as of the week ending April 9th, asset management companies, hedge funds, and others held approximately $17.5 billion in net long positions in US dollars. These non commercial traders currently have the most optimistic view of the US dollar since the fall of 2022. Ned Davis Research Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal said, "From multiple indicators, at least for now, the US dollar is likely to continue to strengthen. Based on our current understanding, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve not taking action first is increasing. However, historically, when other major central banks take action first rather than the Federal Reserve, the US dollar will strengthen." Dominic Schnider, Global Foreign Exchange and Commodities Head of UBS Global Wealth Management, said, "Compared to other economies with poor economic growth, the Federal Reserve is in a comfortable position to maintain interest rates unchanged, and we may see the US dollar continue to rise against other currencies." The new round of rise in the US dollar, known as the "currency defense war," has once again put pressure on emerging economies to intervene in exchange rates. As of April 12th, most emerging market currencies have recorded a decline against the US dollar. The largest declines include the Chilean peso, Thai baht, Korean won, Brazilian lira, and Malaysian ringgit, with declines of 8%, 6.7%, 6.3%, 4.6%, and 3.6% respectively. In addition, the Philippine peso, Polish zloty, and Indian rupee all recorded declines. Only the Mexican peso, Colombian peso, and Peruvian peso recorded gains, with the latter two only increasing by 0.7% and 0.3%. Officials from South Korea, Thailand, and Poland have recently stated that they are closely monitoring exchange rate fluctuations and have made it clear that they will intervene if necessary. Officials from the Bank of Korea have stated that in the
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