The Boao Forum for Asia 2024 annual meeting, with the theme of "Asia and the World: Common Challenges, Common Responsibilities," will be held in Boao, Hainan from March 26 to March 29. On March 26th, the forum released the "2024 Annual Report on Asian Economic Prospects and Integration Processes" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report"), which predicts that the economic growth rate in Asia will reach around 4.5% in 2024, and it will still be the region that contributes the most to global economic growth. "The world economy has not yet returned to the normal growth track before the epidemic, and under the layers of fog, the economic volatility of Asian countries is also increasing, but they are also showing great resilience." Li Baodong, Secretary General of the Boao Forum for Asia, said at a press conference on the 26th that it is expected that Asian economic growth and regional economic integration will continue to maintain strong momentum in 2024, and the growth prospects of developing economies in Asia such as China will continue to be positive. The report points out that despite facing various external economic challenges, the Asian economy will still maintain a relatively high growth rate. With the support of relatively strong consumption and proactive fiscal policies, the economic growth rate in Asia is expected to be higher in 2024 than in 2023, reaching around 4.5%. The proportion of Asia's GDP to the global GDP is expected to be 49% in 2024, an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year. In terms of trade and investment, the report believes that due to factors such as the decline in global economic growth, geopolitical conflicts, and the still tight international financial environment, Asia and even the world may face significant pressure on trade and investment growth in 2024, while also facing the impact of supply chain differentiation. However, the development of digital trade in Asia is accelerating, the recovery of the tourism industry is accelerating, and economic and trade arrangements such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) are continuing to advance. The positive effects of the restructuring of the Asian value chain and industrial chain on regional economic integration are expected to gradually emerge, and Asian trade and investment will also add new impetus as a result. "Since the RCEP came into effect, member countries have benefited from it, and the effects of trade and investment liberalization and facilitation have initially emerged. The rules of trade liberalization and facilitation have generated trade creation effects, and the implementation of the rules of origin accumulation has also enhanced cooperation in regional industrial chains and supply chains." said Sang Baichuan, Dean of the Institute of International Economics at the University of International Business and Economics. The report also points out that the process of regional integration in Asia continues to advance. From the 2022 data, the global dependence on Asian goods trade remains stable, reaching 38.8%; The dependence of Asian economies on Asian goods trade remains at a high level of 57.4%. Among them, China and ASEAN maintain a stable position as the center of goods trade, China's competitive advantage in goods trade exports is obvious, and its export trade with other Asia Pacific economies continues to grow. "Regarding Asian economic integration, we have examined several indicators. Firstly, the degree of dependence of Asian countries on exports, secondly, the interdependence of Asian trade, and thirdly, the integration of Asian production. From these data, it can be roughly concluded that as of 2022, the export dependence of Asian economies is increasing, and trade is relatively growing, demonstrating a trend of self-sufficiency and self-reliance." said Lin Guijun, former vice president of the University of International Business and Economics. (Lai Xin She)
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