The prominent hedging nature of gold brings positive impacts to upstream and downstream industries
2024-03-25
Recently, spot gold prices have hit new highs. "The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut policy has a significant impact on gold prices," said Luo Timing, senior investment advisor at Jufeng Investment Consulting, in an interview with Securities Daily. Global economic and political uncertainties, such as geopolitical tensions and rising inflation expectations, are also important factors affecting the current round of gold price increases. In this context, investors tend to seek safe haven assets, so gold is favored for its outstanding safe haven characteristics. As a commodity, gold naturally possesses commodity properties, from exploration and extraction to smelting and refining, and then to processing and sales, it has a huge industrial chain. Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Financial Market Department of Everbright Bank, believes that the rise in gold prices represents an overall increase in the prosperity of the gold industry, which has a certain positive effect on both upstream and downstream industries. On the upstream supply side, as a scarce resource, gold is mainly mineral gold, supplemented by recycled gold, and the production of mineral gold is relatively rigid. According to statistics from the China Gold Association, in 2023, China's domestic raw material gold production was 375.155 tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.84%. Among them, 297.258 tons of gold mineral gold and 77.897 tons of non-ferrous by-product gold were produced. China's mineral gold mainly comes from large gold enterprises (groups). According to statistics, in 2023, the domestic mining mineral gold production of large gold enterprises (groups) in China was 142.323 tons, accounting for 47.88% of the national mineral gold. Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold and other enterprises are all engaged in gold exploration and development, and have a certain amount of gold resources in reserve. Taking Shandong Gold as an example, according to the 2022 annual report, the gold production of Shandong Gold in 2022 was 38.7 tons, and the gold resources in 2022 were approximately 1431.4 tons. "The upstream gold production industry will directly benefit from the rise in gold prices," Zhou Maohua said. On the downstream demand side, the demand for gold mainly consists of demand for gold jewelry, global central bank purchases, investment purchases, and technology industry purchases. Among them, the demand for gold and jewelry occupies the main position. According to data released by the World Gold Council, the total global demand for gold (excluding over-the-counter trading) in 2023 was 4448 tons, of which global demand for gold jewelry was 2093 tons, accounting for 47%. As the main driving force for the growth of global gold jewelry consumption demand, in 2023, when gold prices repeatedly hit new highs, China's annual gold jewelry consumption demand reached 630 tons, an increase of 10% compared to 2022. In 2024, the consumption of gold and jewelry started to be hot. According to data from the Ministry of Commerce, during the 2024 Spring Festival, the sales of gold, silver, and jewelry, mainly made of gold products, increased by 24% year-on-year. Zhou Maohua believes that there is often a phenomenon of "buying up instead of buying down" in the gold retail market, and the rise in gold prices has triggered some investors' enthusiasm for investment and consumption. Although there is cost pressure on the middle and downstream gold processing and sales industries, the increase in market sales prices and volume helps to protect profits. Zhou Maohua also suggested that in the face of fluctuations in gold prices, relevant industries need to optimize management, improve production and operation efficiency to achieve cost reduction and efficiency increase, and increase profits. Meanwhile, focusing on market demand, enhancing product innovation
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