The mortgage interest rate is approaching a historic low, and the real estate market is expected to usher in a "little spring"
2024-02-21
On February 20th, the People's Bank of China authorized the National Interbank Funding Center to release the latest loan market quoted rate (LPR). The 1-year LPR remained unchanged at 3.45%, while the 5-year and above LPR was reduced by 25 basis points, adjusted from 4.2% to 3.95%. It is worth noting that this is an asymmetric interest rate cut, with a 25 basis point reduction in LPR over 5 years, the largest decrease since the anchor change in 2019, and mortgage interest rates further approaching historical lows. Taking Beijing, which currently has the highest mortgage interest rate, as an example, with the LPR reduction, both the first and second home interest rates have been adjusted. At present, the loan interest rate for the first home outside the sixth district of the city has been adjusted to 3.95%, and for the second home, it has been adjusted to 4.5%; The interest rates for the first and second homes in the sixth district of the city have been adjusted to 4.05% and 4.55% respectively. Chen Wenjing, Director of Market Research at Zhongzhi Research Institute, stated that the recent central bank interest rate cut is a rare asymmetric rate cut while MLF rates remain unchanged. After the reduction, the lower limit of the current mortgage interest rates for purchasing first and second homes has been lowered to 3.75% (LPR-20 basis points for 5-year and above) and 4.15% (LPR+20 basis points for 5-year and above), further approaching historical lows. In some cities, mortgage interest rates have dropped to historical lows, with only a few areas having first-time mortgage interest rates higher than 4%. The person in charge of China Merchants Shekou stated that the unexpected reduction of LPR over 5 years reflects the determination and strength of the current real estate demand side policies. Lowering LPR over 5 years will help reduce financing costs for real estate enterprises and boost the confidence of demand side homebuyers in the real estate market. The above-mentioned individuals stated that this LPR adjustment is a significant signal that will play an important role in boosting market confidence and further promoting the stability of the real estate market. With the decrease in mortgage interest rates, the cost of purchasing a house for homebuyers will decrease, increasing their willingness and ability to purchase a house. In conjunction with a series of demand side stimulus policies previously introduced, it is expected to further stimulate the demand for buying a house. For real estate companies, lower financing costs combined with a recovery in the demand side market will also help them carry out more investment activities. In fact, as policy adjustments continue, the market has shown a trend of warming up during the Spring Festival period. According to monitoring data from Beike Research Institute, the viewing and transaction volume of second-hand houses in 50 key cities during the Spring Festival holiday in 2024 has significantly increased compared to 2023. Specifically, the number of house visits during the 8-day Spring Festival holiday in 2024 has significantly increased. According to daily statistics and levels, first tier cities have seen a 90% increase compared to last year's Spring Festival, only slightly lower than in 2021; Second tier cities increased by 180%, and third tier cities increased by 140%. There has also been an increase in trading volume. The transaction volume during the 2024 Spring Festival holiday increased by over 70% compared to the same period last year. Among them, the transaction volume in first tier cities has slightly decreased by 3% compared to the same period last year, increased by 98% in second tier cities, and increased by 65% in third tier cities. From a city perspective, in first tier cities, the viewing and transaction volume of houses in Beijing has slightly decreased compared to last year, while the transaction volume in Shenzhen has doubled compared to last year; Among second and third tier cities, Suzhou, Zhengzhou, Xi'an, Nanjing, Wuhan, Hefei, Chengdu, Ningbo, Foshan
Edit：Hou Wenzhe Responsible editor：WeiZe
Source：Economic Information Daily
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