How effective is the new policy of significantly reducing thresholds and costs in the Beijing Shanghai real estate market
2024-02-01
On December 14, 2023, Beijing and Shanghai adjusted and optimized their real estate policies on the same day, which led to a certain upward trend in the year-end transaction volume of the Beijing real estate market and a positive change in the Shanghai real estate market. Overall, the new policies in Beijing and Shanghai have significantly reduced the threshold and cost of home ownership for residents, and have a positive promoting effect on both purchasing and changing houses, with a significant short-term boost effect. According to statistics from Zhongzhi Research Institute, after the implementation of relevant policies in Beijing, from December 15 to December 31, 2023, 4443 new houses were sold in Beijing, a year-on-year increase of 28.4%, with a daily average of 261 houses sold, an increase of 120% compared to December 1 to December 14, 2023. Driven by factors such as concentrated online signing of some projects, the weekly transaction volume continued to rise month on month. Since 2024, the average transaction volume of new houses in the first two weeks has remained basically the same as the week before the new policy. According to data on second-hand housing, in December 2023, 12963 second-hand housing units were signed online in Beijing, which is basically the same as 12545 units in November before the implementation of the new policy. In the whole of 2023, 155432 second-hand housing units were signed online in Beijing, exceeding the 141000 units in 2022. "The new policies in Beijing have driven the actual transaction volume of the real estate market to increase by about 20%," said Zhang Dawei, Chief Analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate. According to Guan Rongxue, a senior analyst at Zhuge Data Research Center, since the comprehensive implementation of "house recognition but not loan recognition" in first tier cities in September 2023, the market has high expectations for the relaxation of policies in first tier cities. Beijing and Shanghai have successively relaxed their home purchase policies, undoubtedly sending a heavyweight positive signal to the market. On January 30, Shanghai again issued a heavy policy, stipulating that from January 31, non registered residence residents who have continuously paid social insurance or individual income tax in Shanghai for five years or more can purchase one house outside the Outer Ring Road (except Chongming District). "Previously, people who were not registered in registered residence needed to meet the '5-year social security+married' condition when buying a house, but now the married condition has been cancelled." Yan Yuejin, research director of E-House Research Institute, said that the area outside the outer ring of Shanghai accounted for about 60% of the housing supply and transaction volume of the city, and there was sufficient room to buy a house, which could better meet the purchase needs of related groups of first homes or newly needed houses. It is worth noting that for families who want to exchange houses, they must first sell their second-hand houses before they can exchange for new ones. Currently, there are nearly 170000 second-hand houses listed in Beijing, and overall, there is a phenomenon of unsold middle and low-end houses. Chen Wenjing, Director of Market Research at Zhongzhi Research Institute, believes that it is expected that the number of second-hand housing listings will remain high in the short term, and there is still some downward pressure on second-hand housing prices. If optimization policies continue to be promoted, second-hand housing prices are also expected to gradually stabilize. According to data from China Index Research Institute, from December 15 to December 31, 2023, 6193 new residential properties were sold in Shanghai, with a daily average of 364 units sold, an increase of 19% compared to December 1 to December 14. The adjusted policy resulted in a significant increase in trading volume compared to the previous week, but due to insufficient supply, the trading volume continued to decline. However, the average weekly trading volume remained higher than the level of the week before the new policy was released. From January 1st to January 14th, 2024, the overall trading volume remained stable
Edit：Hou Wenzhe Responsible editor：WeiZe
Source：economic daily
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