Starting from January 12th, the United States and the United Kingdom launched consecutive airstrikes on targets of the Yemeni Houthi armed forces, and the Houthi armed forces responded with a "significant" response to any military attacks against the United States. The geopolitical conflict risk of the Red Sea route, an important oil transportation route in the Middle East, has suddenly escalated. Amidst widespread concern in the international community, international oil prices have recently risen to around $80 per barrel. Analysts point out that in the medium to long term, the main reason for the rise in oil prices is the overall trend of global economic recovery and the demand of major economies. However, current geopolitical conflicts have become a significant factor affecting international oil prices. Geopolitical risks are rising. Yemen is adjacent to one of the busiest waterways in the world, the Red Sea Line, to the west. The northern outlet of the Red Sea is the Suez Canal, which carries 12% of the world's maritime trade volume. After the outbreak of a new round of Palestinian Israeli conflict in October last year, the Hussai armed forces used drones and missiles to repeatedly attack targets in the Red Sea region. According to the Hussein militants, the target of the attack was a ship associated with Israel, in order to show support for Palestine. Affected by this, several international oil giants such as BP announced a suspension of transportation through the Red Sea, leading to an increase in international oil prices. Since January 12th, the United States and the United Kingdom have launched consecutive airstrikes on armed targets in Yemen, causing multiple deaths and injuries. Some countries condemn the actions of the United States and Britain, believing that they are a violation of Yemen's sovereignty. Market analysts point out that the US and UK's attack on the armed targets of Hussai will not only not cool down the situation in the Red Sea, but also greatly exacerbate the local tension, causing shipping companies to avoid the Red Sea route for a longer period of time. Regarding the impact of the Israeli Palestinian conflict on international oil prices, Saudi oil expert Anas Haji believes that the conflict itself will not have a significant impact on international oil prices. However, if the spillover effects of the Israeli Palestinian conflict intensify and lead to more countries in the Middle East, including major oil producing countries, becoming involved, it will have a significant impact on international oil prices. Market fluctuations or exacerbation of economic turbulence analysts point out that geopolitical risks are one of the main external shocks to oil price fluctuations. Geopolitical conflicts often exacerbate the uncertainty, complexity, and unpredictability of the crude oil market, highlighting the geopolitical and financial attributes of crude oil. As geopolitical premiums rise, crude oil prices will temporarily deviate from supply and demand fundamentals, exacerbating fluctuations. Haji believes that the uncertainty caused by oil price fluctuations will exacerbate economic turbulence in various countries, exacerbate the impact of inflation, and hinder the momentum of global economic recovery. Once there is a supply crisis in oil and gas, the global supply chain may face the risk of interruption. He stated that the rapid rise in short-term crude oil prices may trigger a sudden rebound in inflation rates in Europe and the United States, leading to the failure of the market's originally expected interest rate cycle peak plan and posing significant risks to the global capital market. Saudi international expert Ahmad Ibrahim pointed out that geopolitical conflicts lead to fluctuations in oil prices, which in turn affect economic activities and may also endanger the achievement of the World Bank's goal of eradicating extreme poverty by 2030. The trend of oil prices faces new challenges. Professor at Zhejiang University of Foreign Languages and Director of the Energy and Ecological Security Research Center at the Mediterranean Rim Research Institute
Edit：YiJing Responsible editor：LiYi
Source：news.cn
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