The United Nations report last week lowered its global economic growth forecast for 2024. This reflects the weak stability of the global economic recovery and the continued lack of recovery momentum. Accelerating the clearance of bottlenecks and solving difficulties is becoming an urgent issue facing the restoration of global economic growth momentum. On January 4th, the United Nations released the "2024 World Economic Situation and Outlook" report, which lowered the expected global economic growth rate from 2.7% in 2023 to 2.4% in 2024. The report believes that factors such as high interest rates, escalating geopolitical conflicts, and sluggish international trade pose serious challenges to the global economy. The tightening of credit and rising borrowing costs will make it more difficult to boost economic growth. Previously, multiple international institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank had warned that global economic growth may slow down in 2024. At the end of 2023, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development predicted that the global economic growth rate would slow down from 2.9% in 2023 to 2.7% in 2024, making 2024 the lowest natural year for global economic growth since 2020. Analysis has pointed out that under the impact of monetary policy shocks and sustained inflationary pressures in developed economies, the trend of global financial environment tightening, weak trade growth, and declining confidence in businesses and consumers is becoming increasingly apparent. In addition, countries such as the United States abuse trade protectionism, constantly stirring up geopolitical conflicts, disrupting the global supply chain industry chain guided by resource optimization, and causing huge impact and harm to the world economy. These factors have led to an increasing number of obstacles and difficulties in global economic growth, and the recovery of momentum has weakened. To change the current situation of weakened expectations for global economic recovery, efforts should be made to accelerate the resolution of the bottlenecks and difficulties faced by global economic growth. Firstly, we need to strengthen rather than weaken economic and trade cooperation among countries around the world. The cooperation experience between emerging markets and developing economies is particularly worthy of attention and replication. In 2023, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP) will continue to release policy dividends, and the leading role of the "the Belt and Road" initiative will be significantly enhanced. The emerging markets and developing economies will continue to strengthen international policy coordination and international cooperation to deal with the spillover of the European and American crises, maintaining a relatively stable economy. The United Nations report predicts that the growth rate of developing economies will slightly decrease from 4.1% in 2023 to 4.0% in 2024. Compared to the significant decrease in expected growth rates in developed economies such as Europe and America, this reflects more resilience in responding to risks. Secondly, developed economies led by the United States should adopt a responsible attitude and guide market expectations while respecting basic facts. The expectation guidance of the Federal Reserve was once relatively stable, but since the third quarter of 2023, the Federal Reserve's judgment on inflation trends has fluctuated back and forth, and market sentiment has fluctuated repeatedly in speculations about policy tightening, greatly increasing uncertainty. On January 6, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Yellen asserted that the U.S. economy had achieved a "soft landing" based on individual data, but kept silent on key issues such as the sharp decline of major economic indicators such as U.S. electricity consumption, imports and exports, manufacturing, and the treasury bond's breakthrough of $34 trillion, which greatly reduced its credibility. Europe, America, and other major developed economies in the world are also major international currencies
Edit：Hou Wenzhe Responsible editor：WeiZe
Source：economic daily
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