The Federal Reserve of the United States concluded its two-day monetary policy meeting on the 13th and announced that the target range for the federal funds rate will remain unchanged between 5.25% and 5.5%. This is the third consecutive time since September this year that the Federal Reserve has maintained this interest rate range unchanged. In a statement released on the same day, the Federal Reserve stated that recent indicators indicate that US economic activity has weakened compared to strong growth in the third quarter. Since earlier this year, employment growth has slowed down but remains strong. The level of inflation has eased in the past year, but the inflation rate remains high. The US banking system is robust and resilient. The tightening financial environment and credit conditions for households and businesses may affect economic activity, employment, and inflation, but the extent of the impact is still uncertain. The statement reiterated that when determining the degree of further tightening policy, the Federal Reserve will consider the cumulative degree of monetary policy tightening, the degree of lag in the impact of monetary policy on economic activity and inflation, as well as economic and financial development. The Federal Reserve will continue to reduce its holdings of US treasury bond bonds, institutional debt and institutional mortgage-backed securities, and is firmly committed to restoring the inflation rate to 2%. The statement states that the Federal Reserve will continue to monitor the impact of upcoming information on the economic outlook when evaluating appropriate monetary policy positions. If there are risks that may hinder the achievement of goals, the Federal Reserve will be prepared to adjust its monetary policy stance as appropriate. On the same day, the Federal Reserve also released its latest economic outlook forecast, raising this year's US economic growth forecast by 0.5 percentage points to 2.6% compared to September's forecast, and lowering the 2024 economic growth forecast by 0.1 percentage points to 1.4%. It is expected that the unemployment rates in the United States will be 3.8% and 4.1% respectively this year and next, which is consistent with previous predictions. This year, the inflation expectation measured by the personal consumption expenditure price index has dropped to 2.8%, and the core inflation expectation after excluding food and energy prices has dropped to 3.2%, both down 0.5 percentage points from previous forecasts, but still far above the 2% inflation target. According to the latest economic outlook, 6 out of 19 members of the Federal Open Market Committee believe that the federal funds rate level may drop to 4.5% to 4.75% next year, 5 people expect the rate to drop to 4.75% to 5%, and only 2 people believe that the rate will remain at its current level next year. This means that at a rate of 25 basis points per rate cut, the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates three times next year. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said at a press conference after the meeting that the federal funds rate is "likely to be close to the peak of this tightening cycle." Federal Reserve officials attending the meeting generally believe that "further rate hikes are unlikely to be appropriate," but they do not want to rule out this possibility. If the economy develops as scheduled, it is expected that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate by the end of 2024 will be 4.6%. (Lai Xin She)
Edit：He Chuanning Responsible editor：Su Suiyue
Source：Xinhua
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