What is the trend of the Chinese economy (year-end economic observation)? Outlook for Financial Officials in 2024
2023-12-14
The Central Economic Work Conference concluded in Beijing on the 12th, summarizing this year's economic work and deploying next year's economic work. What is the current economic situation in China? What are the key economic tasks in 2024? On the 13th, at the 2023-2024 China Economic Annual Conference hosted by the China International Economic Exchange Center, several Chinese financial officials analyzed the trend and key tasks of the Chinese economy in 2024. Recognizing the economic situation - Overall recovery is improving. Officials attending the meeting pointed out that since the beginning of this year, the Chinese economy has rebounded as a whole, but there are still many challenges and difficulties. Han Wenxiu, Deputy Director in charge of daily work in the Office of the Central Committee of Finance and Economics and Director of the Office of the Central Rural Work Leading Group, stated that in the face of multiple external pressures and many internal difficulties and challenges, China's economy has continued to recover and develop this year, achieving a recovery and improvement, and the main expected goals of economic and social development are expected to be successfully achieved. Recently, many institutions have predicted that China's annual economic growth will be around 5.2%, and domestic and foreign institutions have gradually raised their forecasts for China's economic growth. China's contribution to global economic growth has reached one-third, and "China remains the largest engine of global economic growth.". "While the economy is steadily improving, it should also be noted that from the domestic and international environment, there are still strategic opportunities and risks and challenges coexisting." Han Wenxiu said that from a domestic perspective, there is insufficient effective demand, the "scar effect" brought about by the epidemic in the past three years is long-lasting, residents' consumption ability and willingness are not strong enough, and the motivation for enterprises to expand reproduction is not enough. Some industries have overcapacity, some enterprises are facing operational difficulties, local debt Real estate, finance, and other risks are intertwined. From a foreign perspective, the world economy and trade lack momentum, protectionism and unilateralism are on the rise, and global industrial and supply chains are facing regionalization and fragmentation. Han Wenxiu stated that in the face of difficulties and challenges, we should recognize the many favorable conditions and important opportunities facing China's economic development. China has a super large market with a population of over 1.4 billion and a middle-income group of over 400 million. There is still significant room for improvement in urbanization rate. There is still significant room for fiscal and monetary policies. China has unique advantages in a complete industrial system and strong supporting capabilities, and the new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation also contains new opportunities. Controlling the pace of macroeconomic regulation - Striving for progress while maintaining stability. In the face of the current economic situation, the Central Economic Work Conference proposed to adhere to the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability through progress, and establishing before breaking through. We need to strengthen the countercyclical and cross cyclical adjustment of macroeconomic policies, and continue to implement proactive fiscal policies and prudent monetary policies. Lin Zechang, Director of the Comprehensive Department of the Ministry of Finance of China, stated that the proactive fiscal policy in 2024 should be moderately strengthened, improved in quality and efficiency. Make good use of fiscal policy space, improve financial efficiency and policy effectiveness, and strengthen financial support for major national strategic tasks. We will focus on supporting the construction of modern industrial systems, expanding effective demand, promoting coordinated development between urban and rural areas, promoting green and low-carbon development, ensuring and improving people's livelihoods, and resolving local government debt risks. Regarding how to implement a prudent monetary policy, Lu Lei, Deputy Director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange of China, stated that it will further leverage the dual functions of the total amount and structure of the money supply. In terms of total amount, it is necessary to maintain moderation and stabilize the impact of currency and credit on the real economy
Edit：Hou Wenzhe Responsible editor：WeiZe
Source：chinanews.com
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