The picture shows workers working on the production line of SAIC GM Wuling Indonesia Automotive Co., Ltd. in Bukasi, Indonesia. As the world's second largest economy and the largest emerging market country, China's economic performance has a significant impact on the overall performance of emerging markets, as photographed by Xinhua News Agency reporter Xu Qin. Recently, multiple international financial institutions generally expect emerging markets to experience rapid growth again in 2024, and believe that the important driving force for accelerating their recovery is the development of the Chinese economy. Recently, multiple international financial institutions have made forward-looking predictions on the performance prospects of emerging markets, and it is widely expected that emerging markets will experience rapid growth again in 2024. They believe that the important driving force for accelerating their recovery is the development of the Chinese economy. Swiss Bank Group economic analysts predict that emerging market assets will see a significant improvement in 2024 after experiencing a difficult start, with full year returns surpassing those of major developed country assets in the world. Economists at Goldman Sachs Group have also made similar expectations, with their emerging market asset strategy team evaluating that the performance of emerging markets in 2024 will be better than in 2023. The Swiss Banking Group recently released a report titled 'Investing in Emerging Markets', stating that emerging markets play a crucial role in the current constantly changing global economic and geopolitical order. Asia is at the center of this' new order '. As the largest economy in Asia, China is experiencing a significant recovery in economic activity thanks to proactive fiscal policies and prudent monetary policies. The annual GDP growth rate is expected to exceed the target of 5%. China recently issued an additional 1 trillion yuan of treasury bond, releasing a strong signal that the government is committed to supporting economic recovery and stabilizing market confidence. The above measures are expected to stimulate infrastructure investment and contribute a growth rate of 0.4% to 0.8% to the GDP in 2024. In the next 5 to 10 years, China's economic growth rate will stabilize in the range of 4% to 4.5%, ensuring that per capita GDP will double by 2035. In this new normal, China's economy will also complete transformation and upgrading, with the main driving forces for growth being the real estate market, low-end manufacturing, and exports upgrading to mass consumption, green transformation, and technological innovation. Economic analysts at Goldman Sachs Group predict that emerging markets will experience a significant rebound in 2024. As the most representative sample covering China's investment space, the MSCI China Index's upward trend, along with other emerging market countries' MSCI indices that have also shown significant gains, provides data support for Goldman Sachs' optimistic expectations. Goldman Sachs Group expects that the emerging market index will continue to remain high in 2024, with its full year performance significantly surpassing the S&P 500 index, which reflects global stock market performance. Goldman Sachs Group believes that the main factors driving growth in emerging markets include the progress made in global disinflation efforts and potential interest rate cuts in emerging markets. In addition, recent factors such as the expected rise of the Federal Reserve's ending interest rate increase, the depreciation of the U.S. dollar, and the decline in the yield of U.S. treasury bond bonds will also jointly stimulate investors to transfer capital outside the U.S. market and be willing to accept greater risks when investing in emerging markets. As the world's second largest economy and the largest emerging market country, China's own economic performance has a significant impact on
Edit：Hou Wenzhe Responsible editor：WeiZe
Source：economic daily
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