On November 21, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that based on recent changes in international market oil prices and the current mechanism for pricing refined oil products, starting from 24:00 on November 21, 2023, the prices of domestic gasoline and diesel (standard products, the same below) will be reduced by 340 yuan and 330 yuan per ton, respectively. At this point, the retail prices of domestic refined oil products have experienced a "four consecutive declines", which is also the tenth downward adjustment of the zero selling price of domestic refined oil products since the beginning of this year. The price adjustment of refined oil products during the year has shown a pattern of "ten increases, ten falls, and three stalls". From the adjustment range of the zero selling price of finished oil this time, the equivalent price increase for 92 # gasoline, 95 # gasoline, and 0 # diesel will be reduced by 0.27 yuan, 0.28 yuan, and 0.28 yuan, respectively. That is to say, except for Hainan Province and most areas in the southwest, 92 gasoline in other regions of China will return to the "7th era". From the perspective of this pricing cycle, the crude oil change rate continues to fluctuate negatively due to the impact of international oil price fluctuations. According to Jin Lianchuang's calculation, as of the tenth working day on November 21, the average price of reference crude oil varieties was 78.48 US dollars per barrel, with a change rate of -7.44%. Based on the data monitored by the Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission, during the current cycle of refined oil price adjustment (November 7th to November 20th), on average, the oil prices of London Brent and New York WTI decreased by 7.32% and 7.3% respectively compared to the previous price adjustment cycle. Although there has been a significant decline in international oil prices during this pricing cycle, the industry believes that international crude oil may exhibit a strong trend of volatility in the future, and makes corrections to the previous decline. The person in charge of the Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission stated in an interview with Securities Daily that in the short term, the significant decline in international oil prices will slow down. On the one hand, with the arrival of winter in the northern hemisphere, the demand for crude oil heating may experience a seasonal rebound. On the other hand, the current international oil price level is not in line with the interests of oil producing countries, and relevant organizations may stabilize international oil prices by increasing production reduction efforts. Dai Tiandong, a product oil analyst at Zhuochuang Information, also stated that in the early stage, after the decline in international oil prices, there were rumors in the market that Saudi Arabia and other countries would reduce production to support the international oil market, which directly led to a reversal of bearish sentiment in the crude oil market and a cautious bullish outlook in the future; In addition, after the initial operating rate of American refineries has decreased, they will gradually increase in the future, increasing demand for oil. In addition, the United States will moderately supplement its strategic reserves, which will also increase oil demand. These factors will form a certain boost to international oil prices. It is expected that in the next refined oil price adjustment cycle, international oil prices are expected to stabilize at a low level. (New News Agency)
Edit：Hou Wenzhe Responsible editor：WeiZe
Source：Securities Daily
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