Breaking five consecutive hurdles in one day, the RMB exchange rate hit a new high in nearly four months
2023-11-21
On November 20th, the onshore RMB/USD exchange rate surged after opening, reaching a maximum of 7.1633, breaking five levels in a row and reaching a new high since August. At the same time, the offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose by nearly 600 points within the day, also breaking the 7.17 level. Towards the end of the year, the RMB exchange rate has shifted from weak to strong, ushering in a reversal trend. Last week, the onshore and offshore RMB exchange rate rebounded strongly against the US dollar, with rebounds reaching thousands of points throughout the week. Moreover, since the second half of August, the Chinese yuan has remained relatively strong against a basket of currencies, with an appreciation rate of over 2%. In the past two months, the RMB as a whole maintained a sideways fluctuation trend. At the same time as the price increases, the quantity also increases simultaneously. With the stabilization and appreciation of the exchange rate, the trading volume of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan is also recovering. According to Zhao Wei, Chief Economist of Guojin Securities, at the end of October, the average trading volume of spot quotes in the past 20 trading days fell to 13.2 billion US dollars, setting a new low since 2018; As of November 17th, spot inquiry trading volume has rebounded to $17.8 billion. The opportunity for the RMB exchange rate to rise this time is mainly due to the resonance changes of internal and external factors. From the perspective of external factors, with the global economic downturn and a decline in inflation, the tightening cycle of global central banks has come to an end, and in the future, the interest rate gap between China and the United States will gradually converge to the normal range. Fawad Razaqzada, a senior analyst at Jiasheng Group, told reporters that market sentiment had previously been overly bullish on the US dollar. The latest consumer price index (CPI) in the United States and the United Kingdom has fallen faster than expected, consolidating market expectations that the Federal Reserve and other central banks will no longer raise interest rates. In the future, the interest rate gap between China and the United States is expected to gradually narrow. From an internal perspective, the gradual stabilization of fundamental factors and the frequent introduction of stable exchange rate policies play a crucial role in stabilizing confidence in the foreign exchange market. The industry believes that positive factors such as export recovery in terms of revenue and expenditure may have a certain positive impact on the rise of the RMB. In fact, relevant departments have been implementing stable exchange rate policies since mid to late July, and have been increasing their efforts since then. The Central Financial Work Conference proposed to strengthen the management of the foreign exchange market and maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level. The industry believes that this releases a clear signal of stabilizing exchange rates. The signal of domestic economic stability and improvement has become increasingly clear. Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher in the financial market department of Everbright Bank, said that the domestic data reflected that the recovery momentum of economic activities had significantly increased, and the economy was returning to the potential growth level. Currently, the sentiment in the foreign exchange market is showing a rebound trend. In the short term, the magnitude and strength of the RMB rebound will depend on the subsequent market settlement and the level of trading volume in the foreign exchange market before the Spring Festival. Fawad Razaqzada stated that exporters often convert US dollar accounts receivable into Chinese yuan before the end of the year and the Lunar New Year, which will support the Chinese yuan. Driven by short-term optimism, it is not ruled out that the RMB exchange rate will rise to the 7.1 range. In the future, the resilience of the RMB exchange rate will still depend on economic fundamentals. Market participants believe that the positive factors of the RMB exchange rate are
Edit：Hou Wenzhe Responsible editor：WeiZe
Source：Shanghai Securities Daily
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