After several international financial institutions raised their growth expectations for the Chinese economy in 2023, Goldman Sachs, UBS and other institutions have recently released macroeconomic outlook for 2024, optimistic about China's economic development prospects and increasing their holdings in A-shares. On November 13th, Goldman Sachs released a report on China's macroeconomic outlook and stock market strategy for 2024. Liu Jinjin, Chief China Equity Strategist at Goldman Sachs, predicts that the MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index will rise by 12% and 16% respectively in 2024, maintaining their overweight stance on A-shares. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced on November 7th that it has raised China's economic growth expectations for this year and the next two years to 5.4% and 4.6%, respectively, an increase of 0.4 percentage points compared to the October forecast. Goldman Sachs Chief China Economist Shan Hui stated that it is expected that China's real GDP growth rate will reach 4.8% in 2024, which is higher than the IMF's forecast. To investigate the reason, Shanhui explained to reporters that the 4.8% growth rate next year means stable consumption prospects, further increased government financial support, and a larger proportion of investment in real estate, infrastructure, manufacturing and other fields. UBS Asia Economic Research Director and Chief China Economist Wang Tao told Securities Daily that it is expected that China's real GDP growth rate will slow to 4.4% in 2024. The consumer and service industries will continue to recover in 2024. Wang Tao further stated that with the further recovery of the service industry, consumption will continue to normalize in 2024, and it is expected that residents' actual income will increase by about 5%. The valuation of A-shares is highly attractive. The valuation of the Chinese stock market is at a relatively low level, which has considerable appeal to overseas investors. Marty Dropkin, head of equity investment at Fidelity International Asia Pacific, recently expressed a very optimistic attitude towards the Chinese market. From a long-term investment perspective, given the current valuation level, attitudes towards the Chinese capital market are becoming increasingly optimistic, especially for some individual stock targets and industry opportunities. Due to its low sensitivity to geopolitical and liquidity factors, the stock risk premium has further increased, and A-shares remain attractive. sectors such as new infrastructure, renewable energy, electric vehicle supply chain, and mass market consumption are worth allocating, "said Liu Jinjin. In Liu Jinjin's view, the current valuation of A-shares is at a low level. With the gradual recovery of overseas investors' sentiment and the normalization of risk appetite next year, there is still significant room for improvement in their positions in A-shares. Liu Jinjin also stated that in 2024, Goldman Sachs will maintain its view of surpassing China's TMT and mass consumption sectors, and increase its allocation of industries with better profit growth rates such as food and beverage and hardware. Whether at the investor or market level, the Chinese market is becoming more mature, and we are optimistic about the development trend of the Chinese economy and industry. "Meng Qiao, Director of Investment Strategy at Fidelity Fund, said that China is the second largest economy in the world, with GDP accounting for 18% of the world, but A-shares account for less than 3% of various global asset allocation indices, indicating that there is still great room for development in the Chinese capital market in the future. China will continue to expand the breadth and depth of financial market reform and opening up, attracting more long-term funds to actively participate
Edit：Hou Wenzhe Responsible editor：WeiZe
Source：Securities Daily
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