The new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict has been ongoing for over a week, pushing international crude oil prices into an upward trajectory. Oil prices in New York significantly increased on the 13th, with the price of New York light crude oil futures for November delivery rising by $4.78 to close at $87.69 per barrel. The future trend of oil prices has become a focus of attention for all parties. The Middle East region has abundant oil reserves, accounting for over one-third of the world's maritime oil trade. The sharp rise in geopolitical risks has made the crude oil market "on pins and needles". On the 13th, the Israeli military demanded that millions of residents in the northern part of the Palestinian Gaza Strip withdraw to the southern region, stating that the Israeli military will launch a "major" operation in Gaza City in the coming days. The price of crude oil rose significantly on the same day. The monthly report on the October crude oil market released by the International Energy Agency recently shows that although the current international crude oil supply has not been directly affected by the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, market concerns may intensify as the conflict continues. Analysts point out that currently, the oil market is facing bullish factors such as Saudi Arabia and Russia extending voluntary production cuts until the end of the year, as well as bearish factors such as lower than expected global macroeconomic indicators and a two-year low gasoline delivery volume in the United States. These factors will have a significant impact on the future direction of oil prices. Meanwhile, in the fourth quarter of this year, oil demand will face a decrease in tourism and an increase in seasonal inventory. The International Energy Agency's monthly report on the crude oil market for October shows that crude oil supply is expected to remain relatively scarce in the fourth quarter. However, if Saudi Arabia and Russia's production reduction measures are cancelled in January next year, crude oil supply may eventually become surplus. The impact of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict on important neighboring oil producing countries and their response measures have become a focus of market attention. Analysts point out that in the context of the ongoing escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, regional spillover effects are gradually emerging, which has become the biggest uncertain factor affecting the direction of international oil prices in the future. Lin Boqiang, Dean of the China Energy Policy Research Institute at Xiamen University, said that without the participation of other countries, the impact of conflicts on oil prices is limited; But if Iran is involved, oil prices may rise significantly. Alan Gerd, an analyst at Wood McKenzie Consulting, a UK energy research firm, believes that if the conflict escalates, the most direct market impact may be stricter US sanctions on Iranian exports. Bob McNally, President of Lapidan Energy Consulting in the United States, stated in an interview with Consumer News and Business Channel (CNBC) that if Iran is embroiled in the conflict, oil prices may rise by $5 to $10. (New News Agency)
Edit：Hou Wenzhe Responsible editor：WeiZe
Source：XinhuaNet
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