Can a more comprehensive loosening of real estate regulation bring about a new round of rebound?
2023-10-12
Recently, with the introduction of favorable real estate policies such as "not recognizing loans for housing", a unified minimum down payment ratio, adjustment of the lower limit of mortgage interest rates, and reduction of stock mortgage interest rates in multiple regions, many second tier cities such as Nanjing, Jinan, Fuzhou, and Zhengzhou have lifted purchase restrictions, Guangzhou has adjusted the implementation area of purchase restrictions, and Shanghai has lowered the threshold for talent to purchase houses in the new Lingang area. The relaxation of real estate regulation policies has entered a more comprehensive stage. From feedback from multiple institutions, it can be seen that after the implementation of the policy, consumers' willingness to buy and confidence in buying houses have increased. The demand for selling, buying, and exchanging has driven an increase in the number of listings, while second-hand housing prices have remained stable. Under the pressure of real estate companies to diversify, the expectation of new housing price increases is not significant. The popularity of buying houses in first tier cities has increased by the end of August. Multiple ministries and commissions jointly issued a document clarifying the recognition criteria for "buying a house but not a loan". At the same time, the lower limit of the down payment ratio for commercial loans for first and second homes nationwide has been reduced to 20% and 30%. On August 30th, Guangzhou and Shenzhen took the lead in implementing the policy of "buying a house but not a loan" for the first home. On September 1st, Shanghai and Beijing fully followed up on the implementation, with efforts exceeding expectations. After implementing the policy of 'buying a house but not a loan', the real estate market transactions have significantly increased and gradually decreased. From online data, the increase in second-hand housing popularity in first tier cities reached its peak on September 2, gradually decreased later, and rebounded again on September 10, stable above the average level in August. Zhang Bo, the director of 58 Anjuke Research Institute, said that the rebound in transactions in first tier cities was due to the release of accumulated demand in the early stage, The psychological state of potential homebuyers is hesitant, and with the implementation of specific policies, demand will be rapidly released. After the outbreak of trading volume in the first weekend of September in Beijing and Shanghai, the trading volume decreased by more than 50% in the second weekend. "Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, believes that in the week after the new policy was released, around 5000 second-hand houses were sold in Beijing, and a total of 3500 new residential buildings were sold. As the release of demand momentum weakens, the trading volume significantly decreases in the two weeks after September. According to data from the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban Rural Development, in September, 5891 new commercial residential units were signed in Beijing, with a transaction area of 679600 square meters, an increase of 42.9% and 41.1% respectively month on month; 14262 second-hand residential properties were sold, an increase of 30.1% month on month. The Shanghai new home trading market is in an active and recovering trend, with some data better than expected, "said Yan Yuejin, research director of E-House Research Institute. Currently, the transaction volume has significantly increased, and the buying group is mainly some first-time buyers. During the Mid Autumn and National Day holiday, the number of goods promoted in Guangzhou reached 20, with a total increase of 42% compared to the same period last year. Li Yujia, Chief Researcher of the Guangdong Provincial Housing Policy Research Center, believes that overall, the impact of policies on Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and other places is not as significant as that of Beijing and Shanghai. However, there has been a significant increase in the number of visitors to new and second-hand housing developments in the Guangzhou and Shenzhen regions. In addition to regular promotions, developers have launched 'Buy It Now' listings to boost the popularity of home buyers, "said Li Yujia. After the implementation of the new policy, the market prices have remained basically stable, and the number of second-hand housing listings has increased. Some new real estate projects have cancelled preferential policies, causing many homebuyers to worry about whether it will lead to a new round of housing price increases? The market prices are basically stable, and there has been no significant increase in second-hand or new houses
Edit：Hou Wenzhe Responsible editor：WeiZe
Source：economic daily
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