The long holiday is over, and A-shares are about to enter the first trading day of October and the fourth quarter. Given the recent weak performance of major global stock indices, how will A-shares move forward? The performance of major global stock indices is weak from this week's trading day (October 2nd to October 6th), while other major global stock indices are weak. In terms of US stocks, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%, the Nasdaq rose 1.6%, and the S&P 500 index rose 0.48%. In terms of European stocks, the FTSE 100 index in the UK fell 1.49%, the CAC40 index in France fell 1.05%, and the DAX index in Germany fell 1.02%. In terms of the Asia Pacific stock market, the Nikkei 225 and South Korea Composite Index both fell by over 2% this week. The Hang Seng Index has fallen 1.8% this week. On macro news, the latest US September non farm employment data released on Friday greatly exceeded market expectations, strengthening the reason for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year and maintain a high interest rate policy for the long term. After the holiday, the winning rate of A-shares is considerable, and major global markets are fluctuating. How will A-shares perform after the holiday? From the history of A-shares, in the past 12 years, the overall performance of A-shares on the first trading day after the National Day holiday has shown a trend of up and down. According to Wind data, in the first trading day after the National Day holiday in the past 12 years from 2011 to 2022, the Shanghai and Shenzhen indices only experienced a decline in 2011, 2012, 2018, and 2022, with the remaining 8 times reporting an increase, accounting for 67%. The research report released by Fuguo Fund shows that the "calendar effect" of A-shares before and after the National Day has always been widely valued by the market and is also regarded by investors as the "anchor" of investment decisions. According to the statistics of the market fluctuations in the two weeks and one week before and after the National Day holiday, it can be found that the market trading was relatively light before the holiday, which is also related to some funds avoiding uncertain factors overseas during the holiday period. The Wanda All A Index fell an average of 1.02% in the week before the holiday, 0.54% in the two weeks before the holiday, and 2.10% on average in the week after the holiday, and 1.47% on average in the two weeks after the holiday. From this, it can be seen that holding stocks during holidays and waiting for post holiday gains has a considerable winning rate from a historical perspective. According to statistics from Fuguo Fund, the post holiday performance of major broad base indices in the past decade shows that the probability of a full A increase in the Wande one week after the holiday is as high as 90%, and the probability of a full A increase in the Wande two weeks after the holiday is 80%. At the same time, based on the median rise and fall of the post holiday index, small cap growth stocks represented by the CSI 1000 performed better in the week after the holiday, with the CSI 500 and ChiNext Index following closely; In the two weeks after the holiday, large cap stocks followed suit, with large cap value stocks represented by the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 leading the market. Debang Securities pointed out that a counterattack may be brewing in the A-share market after the National Day holiday. Since September, both the RMB exchange rate and the US dollar index have strengthened. This may indicate market confidence in the introduction of domestic policies to stabilize the economy, as well as the weakening of the herd effect of funds under the central bank's stance of "resolutely preventing the risk of exchange rate overshoot". The sectors and individual stocks that have experienced significant declines in the early stages have accumulated more momentum, and these industries are mainly distributed in technology and core assets. Huaxi Securities Research Report pointed out that there has been a significant recovery in holiday travel, with railway orders reaching a new high in daily passenger transportation; Improvement of travel orders and tourism market
Edit：Hou Wenzhe Responsible editor：WeiZe
Source：economic view
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