Outlook of the Eight Chief Economists on the Macroeconomy in the Fourth Quarter: Continued Positive Recovery, Continued Consumption, Real Estate, and Other Performance Worth Expecting
2023-09-26
With the continuous manifestation of the policy "combination punch" effect, recent multiple data indicators have shown that positive factors for economic operation are accumulating and highlights are increasing, and social expectations have improved. What is the economic situation in the upcoming third quarter? What are the highlights of the economic operation in the fourth quarter that are worth looking forward to? What will be the driving forces for the policy side? In response, Securities Daily reporters interviewed Wen Bin, Chief Economist of Minsheng Bank, Zhao Wei, Chief Economist of Guojin Securities, Ming Ming, Chief Economist of CITIC Securities, Dong Zhongyun, Chief Economist of AVIC Securities, Pang Ming, Chief Economist and Research Director of Jones Lang LaSalle in Greater China, Wang Tao, Chief Economist and Chief China Economist of UBS Deng Haiqing, Chief Economist of AVIC Fund, and Chen Li, Chief Economist of Chuancai Securities and Director of Research Institute, among other eight "CEOs". The chief economists interviewed generally believe that with the increase in macroeconomic policies in the third quarter, the national economy is recovering and the year-on-year GDP growth rate in the third quarter may reach over 4.6%. The macroeconomic recovery trend in the fourth quarter will continue in the third quarter, especially in the areas of consumption and real estate, which are worth looking forward to. In addition, there is still room for monetary policy, fiscal policy, and industrial policy to take action in the fourth quarter. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the year-on-year growth rate of GDP in the third quarter may reach a level of 4.6% or above. In August, the main indicators showed marginal improvement, the national economy recovered well, high-quality development was solidly promoted, and positive factors accumulated and increased. According to reporter statistics, the average predicted GDP growth rate for the third quarter by the interviewed chief economist is above 4.6%. Chen Li predicts that the year-on-year GDP growth rate in the third quarter will be around 5.5%. From the perspective of macroeconomic data, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) has rebounded for three consecutive months, the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) has turned positive year-on-year, the import and export decline has narrowed, new credit has exceeded expectations, and the retail growth rate of consumer goods in August has increased year-on-year. The combination of macroeconomic policies has continued to exert force, creating good conditions for the market to recover. It is expected that the GDP in the third quarter will grow by 4.8% year-on-year, maintaining a stable and reasonable range. "Wen Bin analyzed that from the high-frequency indicators in September, there are more positive factors for the current economic recovery, and it is expected that the economic growth rate in the third quarter will remain stable. The sustained efforts of macroeconomic countercyclical policies, including supporting the development of private economy, activating capital markets, and strengthening strategic emerging industries, are being implemented and effective, all of which are expected to promote economic stability and recovery. The GDP growth rate in China in the third quarter of last year has significantly rebounded compared to the second quarter, and is higher than the fourth quarter of the same year, with a relatively high base. This has led to a decrease in year-on-year GDP growth rate in the third quarter of this year compared to the second quarter, but the month on month growth rate and two-year year-on-year growth rate will rebound, "Wen Bin further stated. The most eye-catching data highlight lies in consumption. "Speaking of the highlights of the economic operation in the third quarter, Pang Ming said that with the implementation of consumption promotion policies in various regions and the combination of strong summer consumption demand, the service consumption market continues the rapid growth and continuous prosperity trend since the beginning of this year. It is expected that stable growth policies and countercyclical measures will continue to increase, improve quality and efficiency, and be implemented in detail. In September, the main economic indicators are expected to continue to improve, and the year-on-year growth rate of GDP in the third quarter is expected to continue
Edit：Hou Wenzhe Responsible editor：WeiZe
Source：Securities Daily
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