With the introduction of various policies in the A-share market, the recovery of the national economy in August, and the adjustment and optimization of real estate policies, various positive factors have accumulated and increased. In this context, multiple foreign institutions have taken the initiative to voice their optimism about the prospects of China's economic development and the Chinese stock market. As one of the most important investor categories in the A-share market, foreign investment strategies have attracted market attention. Recently, Goldman Sachs has supported A-shares and maintained a view of over matching Chinese stocks. The stock strategy team of Goldman Sachs Research Department released a research report predicting that driven by five factors, including easing policy acceleration, cyclical improvement, good market technology orientation, undervaluation, and low positions, the Chinese stock market is expected to have upward trading opportunities by the end of this year, gradually moving towards the previously predicted MSCI China Index at 67 points (with a potential return rate of 10%). The National Bureau of Statistics released a report on the operation of the main indicators of the national economy for August, which is optimistic about China's economic development prospects. It was found that the recovery of the national economy accelerated in August, with multiple indicators on the production and demand sides showing overall improvement. The People's Bank of China announced a 0.25 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio of financial institutions on September 15th (excluding financial institutions that have already implemented a 5% reserve requirement ratio). After this reduction, the weighted average reserve requirement ratio of financial institutions is about 7.4%. Industry insiders believe that the reduction in reserve requirements has released a signal of countercyclical adjustment and overweight, and financial data in September is expected to continue the upward trend. Goldman Sachs believes that the government has recently introduced a series of closely coordinated combination policies, which can help stabilize growth and reduce systemic risks. The August data has shown signs of stabilizing growth, changes in inventory cycles, lagging effects of policy stimulus, and a rebound in the global manufacturing cycle. These are several key factors that Goldman Sachs economists' growth forecasts for the second half of 2023 are higher than market expectations. Fidelity International also holds a similar view. The economic operation continues to improve, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 49.7% in August, the third consecutive month of recovery. Although it is still in the contraction range, the manufacturing industry as a whole is in a low and stable situation. The demand level continues to differentiate, and domestic demand has improved with policy support. The external demand level, although improving, is still weak overall. Production has improved beyond seasonality, and the decline in inventory and prices has slowed down for the second consecutive month. In the new policy of individual income tax and adjustment and optimization With the continuous increase in housing credit policies and other measures, consumption is expected to gradually recover When it comes to the economic situation in China in the fourth quarter, Wang Tao, head of Asian Economic Research at UBS and Chief China Economist, believes that due to policy relaxation, it is expected that the GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter will rebound to around 3.5% month on month (after quarter adjustment), with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.5%. Maintain the forecast of 4.8% real GDP growth in 2023. There is still room for improvement in the allocation of A-shares by foreign investors. When the China Securities Regulatory Commission held a symposium with experts, scholars, and investors on September 8th, it was proposed that "industry institutions should be brave and adept at countercyclical layout". It is reported that leaders of overseas institutions such as Temasek, BlackRock, and Qiaoshui also attended the meeting. According to recent macro strategy reports released by major institutions, many heavyweight foreign asset management institutions are optimistic and generally bullish on the Chinese stock market. Meng Lei, China Equity Strategy Analyst at UBS Securities, commented on《
Edit：Hou Wenzhe Responsible editor：WeiZe
Source：Securities Daily
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