The recovery of major economic indicators and more stable growth policies are expected
2023-09-18
Multiple data released by the National Bureau of Statistics recently released signals of sustained economic recovery. In addition, including an increase of RMB loans of 1.36 trillion yuan in August and a rebound in the manufacturing purchasing manager index for three consecutive months, multiple data releases in recent days have also released more positive signals. The continued recovery of the national economy is a manifestation of the effectiveness of a series of policy measures to expand domestic demand, boost confidence, and prevent risks. However, in the next stage, measures to stabilize growth will still be intensified. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from the production side, the added value of industries above designated size nationwide increased by 4.5% year-on-year in August, an increase of 0.8 percentage points compared to the previous month. Among them, the added value of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 5.4% year-on-year, 0.9 percentage points higher than the average level of all above designated industries, and contributed 38.9% to the growth of all above designated industries. The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council have promptly introduced and implemented a series of targeted, combined, and collaborative policy measures. Industrial production has continued to recover, most industries have accelerated their growth rate, and the equipment manufacturing industry has rebounded significantly. New progress has been made in the high-quality development of the industrial economy, "said Sun Xiao, a statistician at the Industrial Department of the National Bureau of Statistics. From the demand side, in terms of consumption, in August, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.6% year-on-year, with a growth rate of 2.1 percentage points faster than the previous month. In the first 8 months, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 7% year-on-year, while the retail sales of services increased by 19.4%. The driving effect of service consumption on the entire market is very obvious. In terms of investment, from January to August, fixed assets investment (excluding farmers) increased by 3.2% year on year, of which investment in key areas maintained a rapid growth, infrastructure investment increased by 6.4% year on year, and manufacturing investment increased by 5.9%. Against the backdrop of an increase in the growth base in the same period last year, the growth rate of manufacturing investment has rebounded, indicating that the stable growth policy has taken the lead in achieving results in the field of manufacturing investment, "said Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst of Dongfang Jincheng. At the same time, the data released on the 15th also confirms with other recent data: in August, the manufacturing PMI rebounded to 49.7%, marking the third consecutive month of recovery; The National Consumer Price Index (CPI) has decreased by 0.3% year-on-year to an increase of 0.1%, and the National Producer Price Index (PPI) has turned positive for the first time since the beginning of this year; The decline in China's import and export in August narrowed, significantly stabilizing compared to June and July; In August, RMB loans increased by 1.36 trillion yuan, an increase of 86.8 billion yuan year-on-year. New loans from January to August also reached a new high. In August, the main indicators showed marginal improvement, the national economy recovered well, high-quality development was solidly promoted, and positive factors accumulated and increased. "Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics and Director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of the National Economy, said at a press conference of the National Development Office. However, there are still many external unstable and uncertain factors, domestic demand is still insufficient, and the foundation for economic recovery to be good still needs to be consolidated. Fu Linghui mentioned that in the next stage, "focusing on stabilizing growth, employment, and risk prevention, we will accelerate the implementation and effectiveness of policies and measures that have been introduced, continuously promote the continuous improvement of economic operation, the continuous enhancement of endogenous power, the continuous improvement of social expectations, and the continuous resolution of risks and hidden dangers, and promote the effective improvement of economic implementation quality and quantity coordination
Edit：Hou Wenzhe Responsible editor：WeiZe
Source：Economic Information Daily
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