In the first half of this year, various forces in the oil market underwent several games, with many bearish bears and multiple forces gathering; The oil price has always maintained a range of fluctuations and the amplitude has narrowed, but the future trend is still unpredictable. In the past month, international oil prices have remained stable and upward, with London Brent crude oil futures prices returning to over $80 per barrel. Overall, there are three major factors that affect the direction of the international oil market this year. Firstly, the tightening of global crude oil supply has not changed. OPEC+oil producing countries decided in June to extend crude oil production cuts until the end of 2024, while Saudi Arabia will continue to voluntarily reduce production by 1 million barrels per day, maintaining production at around 9 million barrels per day. At the same time, Russia has also announced that it will voluntarily reduce its oil exports by 500000 barrels per day in August to ensure market balance. The expected production reduction news led to a 1% increase in oil prices on the same day, which did not cause excessive panic in the market. However, analysts have been reminding investors to pay attention to the upcoming supply contraction. Market information is relatively chaotic, making it difficult to make accurate judgments based on it. For example, the Energy Information Administration predicts that non OPEC oil producing countries will increase global crude oil production by 1.5 million barrels/day and 1.3 million barrels/day respectively this year and next. The significant increase in production in countries such as the United States, Norway, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana has to some extent limited the potential for oil price increases. However, news from OPEC emphasizes the demand side. OPEC has repeatedly emphasized that the sustained strong economic growth in Asia will greatly promote the growth of oil demand this year. Saudi Aramco predicts that oil demand growth from China and India will exceed 2 million barrels per day. For professionals in the oil trading industry, any trend of oil producing countries affecting oil prices is worth paying attention to, especially OPEC's repeated measures to limit production and maintain prices. It is reported that US oil and gas drilling activities have weakened, reaching their lowest level since April last year. When drilling activities tighten, future supply will be tight. There are still regulatory environmental issues in the United States, and the Biden administration strongly supports the development of new and alternative energy sources, which further weakens the motivation for producing more oil and natural gas in the future. In addition, Russian crude oil exports have shown signs of decline for two consecutive weeks, and the downward trend may continue for more than six months. It can be seen that crude oil supply will be tight this summer. The research report of Standard Chartered Bank points out that there will be significant changes in the global oil supply level in the coming months, and the supply control of major oil producing countries in the first half of the year has always been crucial; In the second half of the year, market demand may play a leading role. In response, the International Energy Agency said that with the increase of elasticity of global crude oil demand, it may lead to tight supply in the second half of the year, which will put pressure on oil prices. But the agency expects the average price of Brent crude oil to be $79 per barrel in the second half of this year, higher than previous estimates, and will raise the oil price to an average of $84 per barrel next year. Secondly, the strategic reserve of crude oil serves as a price control tool. The "oil weapon" has a long history and has long been regarded as a powerful tool for dealing with geopolitical conflicts, and now it is no exception. In recent years, the relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia has cooled down comprehensively, from strategic allies to cold eyes. The reason for this is still due to
Edit：Hou Wenzhe Responsible editor：WeiZe
Source：economic daily
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