Economy

Has the inflection point of RMB exchange rate depreciation occurred for 5 consecutive days of appreciation?

2023-07-27   

The trend of the RMB exchange rate has undergone new changes. On July 26th, the People's Bank of China authorized the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center to announce that on July 26th, 2023, the central parity rate of the RMB exchange rate in the interbank foreign exchange market was 7.1295 yuan against the US dollar. The previous trading day's central parity rate was 7.1406 yuan, with a daily increase of 111 basis points. At this point, the central parity rate of the RMB has maintained a slight appreciation trend for 5 consecutive trading days, with a cumulative appreciation rate not exceeding 200 basis points. The onshore and offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has recently fluctuated and appreciated, with overall fluctuations around ". 15". The onshore RMB opened at 7.148 against the US dollar on July 26th, and closed at 7.1365 on the previous trading day; The opening price of the offshore RMB against the US dollar was 7.1366, which was basically unchanged from the previous trading day. On the previous trading day, the RMB exchange rate also staged a strong counterattack, with the onshore RMB opening nearly 500 basis points higher against the US dollar, and the offshore RMB also briefly rising over 500 basis points against the US dollar after opening. As of 17:30 on July 26th, the onshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar was 7.152, with a depreciation rate of 0.22% during the day and a appreciation rate of 1.51% during the month; The offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar was 7.1539, with a depreciation rate of 0.23% during the day and a appreciation rate of 1.57% during the month. Since April 2023, the RMB exchange rate has started to depreciate for consecutive months, with onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates falling below 7.27 and 7.28 respectively against the US dollar, hitting new lows since November 2022. After entering July 2023, the RMB exchange rate stabilized and rebounded. However, based on the performance throughout the year, the two-way fluctuation trend of the RMB exchange rate remains unchanged. In the past 7 months of the year, the RMB exchange rate has been in a state of appreciation for 3 months and depreciation for 4 months. As for the reason for this change in the RMB exchange rate, the chief economist of CITIC Securities clearly analyzed that on July 24, the Political Bureau meeting of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China stressed "to maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level", and made another statement on the exchange rate after two years. The exchange rate expectation management signal played a strong role. In addition, the meeting proposed to "activate the capital market and boost investor confidence", and the continuous improvement of the basic system of the capital market in the future may gradually attract foreign investment inflows. At the same time, timely adjustments and optimization of real estate policies, the implementation of a package of debt restructuring plans, and the promotion of stable employment to strategic heights are also expected to improve the pessimistic expectations of the market to a certain extent. "In terms of overseas factors, the market expects the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in July to be a highly probable event, while the probability of continuing to raise interest rates in September is low. If the US Federal Reserve's interest rate raising boots are put in place in July, the pressure on the passive depreciation of the RMB exchange rate is expected to ease. However, it also needs to be noted that the future monetary policy operations of the US Federal Reserve will have a short-term impact on the U.S. Dollar Index." Mingming further pointed out. In fact, as of July 2023, the RMB exchange rate saw a significant improvement. In addition to the statement from the Central Politburo, the People's Bank of China has also activated the exchange rate toolbox. On July 20th, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange decided to increase the macro prudential adjustment parameters for cross-border financing of enterprises and financial institutions from 1.25

Edit:Hou Wenzhe Responsible editor:WeiZe

Source:BeiJIng Business Daily

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