Stabilizing the Political base of foreign trade Experts look forward to new growth highlights in the second half of the year
2023-07-25
On July 24th, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held a meeting to analyze and study the current economic situation and deploy economic work for the second half of the year. The meeting stressed that "we should take multiple measures to stabilize the Political base of foreign trade and foreign investment". The recently released foreign trade "transcript" shows that in the first half of the year, China's foreign trade imports and exports have steadily improved, with a total import and export value of goods trade of 20.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%. So, what signals did the "transcript" of foreign trade imports and exports release in the first half of the year? What are the supports for stabilizing the Political base of foreign trade? What is the future situation of China's foreign trade and what are the new growth points? Securities Daily reporters interviewed multiple industry experts to interpret the above issues. Multiple factors have contributed to the eye-catching "transcript" of foreign trade in the first half of the year. For the first time in history, China's foreign trade import and export scale exceeded 20 trillion yuan in the same period. From an incremental perspective, the total import and export value of China's foreign trade in the first half of the year increased by over 400 billion yuan year-on-year, equivalent to the total export value of over 3 million cars in China last year. Liu Xiangdong, Vice Minister of the Economic Research Department of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, told reporters that China's foreign trade was hit by external challenges in the first half of the year. Against the background of the slowdown in global trade and investment, new growth points of foreign trade were gradually formed, showing a certain degree of resilience. What is the main driving force behind the 'bright' transcript? From a product perspective, the "new three types" of foreign trade such as electric passenger cars, lithium batteries, and solar cells have shown strong growth, with a total export growth of 61.6%, driving the overall export growth of 1.8%. "China's market size has played a significant role in driving green, new energy products, new business types and new industries, and the 'new three kinds' related industries will be further improved in technology and production capacity, which will also improve the competitiveness of these products' exports." Chen Li, chief economist of Sichuan Finance Securities and director of the Research Institute, told reporters that from the perspective of external demand, with the global promotion of the Sustainable Development Goals, countries are concerned about environmental protection The demand for clean energy products will further increase. Products such as electric manned vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar cells are important tools for addressing climate change and reducing carbon emissions, and their market demand will continue to grow. In the long run, with technological innovation, increased external demand, and policy support, there is significant room for growth in the "new three types" of exports. From the regional perspective, in the first half of the year, China's import and export to countries along the "the Belt and Road" increased by 9.8%, 7.7 percentage points higher than the overall growth rate; China's imports and exports to ASEAN increased by 5.4% year-on-year. According to Chen Jianwei, an associate professor at the National Institute of Opening up Studies at the University of International Business and Economics, there are four fundamental supports behind stable and progressive data: firstly, China is the world's largest industrial manufacturing base with a strong industrial supporting system and circulation system, which has laid a solid foundation for large-scale foreign trade; Secondly, China continues to promote opening-up, reduce tariff levels and investment barriers, simplify customs clearance procedures, sign free trade agreements with multiple countries and regions, and create a favorable environment for high-quality development of foreign trade; Thirdly, China adheres to a prudent monetary policy, and the RMB exchange rate remains basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level, creating good expectations for the stable development of foreign trade; Fourth, the "the Belt and Road" construction promoted by China has opened up emerging markets
Edit：Hou Wenzhe Responsible editor：WeiZe
Source：Securities Daily
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