Over the past weekend, Zou Lan, Director of the Monetary Policy Department of the People's Bank of China, has been continuously flashing his statement on the interest rates of existing housing loans on major online platforms with an extremely high frequency. With the passage of time, the focus of all parties on this has shifted from initially being beneficial for improving the phenomenon of supply interruption and early repayment of loans to unleashing more consumption potential. Zou Lan stated that in the first half of this year, personal housing loans totaling 3.5 trillion yuan were disbursed, exceeding 510 billion yuan more than the same period last year, significantly increasing support for housing sales. However, statistical data shows that the overall balance of personal housing loans has slightly decreased, mainly due to changes in price relationships such as financial returns and mortgage interest rates. The phenomenon of residents using deposits or reducing other investments to repay existing loans in advance has significantly increased. Zou Lan believes that the reason for early repayment of loans is related to the high interest rates on existing housing loans. Although the quoted interest rate in the loan market has decreased by 0.45 percentage points, the interest rate on existing housing loans issued in previous years is still at a relatively high level due to the fixed increase in the contract period. In the view of Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Financial Market Department of Everbright Bank, early repayment of loans has its own unique macroeconomic and market background. In recent years, the steady decline in market interest rates has led to a significant interest rate difference between existing mortgage rates and new home purchase rates; Meanwhile, due to fluctuations in the financial market, some investors lack desirable asset targets; In addition, due to factors such as the overall rapid growth of household savings in recent years, it can be said that multiple factors have jointly promoted the phenomenon of early repayment of loans. Yin Zhentao, director of the Financial Science and Technology Research Office of the Institute of Finance of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, also pointed out in an interview with the Securities Daily that, from the perspective of the housing loan interest rate in the past two years, a more obvious feature is that the scissors between the loan interest rate of the existing housing and the newly issued mortgage loan interest rate is widening, and the gap is growing. Based on the June mortgage interest rate data released by the Shell Research Institute, the average mainstream mortgage interest rate for the first and second homes in Baicheng monitored by it is 4.0% and 4.91%, both of which are basically the same as last month. In June, the mainstream mortgage rates for the first and second homes decreased by 42 basis points and 17 basis points respectively compared to the same period last year. For this current situation, Zou Lan also provided a follow-up policy adjustment direction: in accordance with the principles of marketization and rule of law, support and encourage commercial banks and borrowers to negotiate independently to change contract agreements, or to issue new loans to replace existing loans. Although this policy adjustment direction is highly favored by homebuyers, for banks, such "conversion loans" seem to be highly similar to the results brought by early repayment of loans, that is, they will reduce their loan interest margin to a certain extent, which will have a negative impact on bank profits. Based on the data of individual housing loan balance of financial institutions of 38.8 trillion yuan by the end of 2022, CITIC Securities estimates that assuming the mortgage adjustment ratio of existing housing loans is 20% and the pricing adjustment range is 50BP, the negative impact on the annual net interest margin and net profit of commercial banks will be about 1.3BP and 1.7%; If we assume that the adjustment ratio of existing mortgage loans is 7
Edit：Hou Wenzhe Responsible editor：WeiZe
Source：Securities Daily
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