Since the beginning of this year, the most disadvantaged among various paper varieties is white cardboard. According to statistics from Tonghuashun, the average price of 250g to 400g white cardboard in the domestic market has dropped from 5110 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 4110 yuan/ton, and is still continuously breaking new lows in the past five years. Faced with the continuous decline in the price of white cardboard, some small and medium-sized white cardboard enterprises in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Jiangxi and other regions have been the first to issue price increase letters since July 3rd; On July 6th, leading companies in the white cardboard industry, such as Bohui Paper and Sun Paper, also issued price adjustment letters, planning to increase all cardboard products by 200 yuan/ton from the current selling price from July 6th to 7th. The person in charge of a paper company in Guangzhou stated that the cost of white cardboard has severely inverted with the price of paper, and paper companies can only work together to "shout up" and stop the decline by adjusting prices. At present, the price of white cardboard paper is at its lowest point in nearly five years, "Kong Xiangfen, an analyst in the Zhuochuang Information Industry, told reporters. According to data from Zhuochuang Information, as of July 6th, the average market price of 250g to 400g white cardboard in China was 4110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36.38% compared to the high point of 6460 yuan/ton in the past two years. However, from a cost perspective, although the price of wood pulp has shown a significant decline since the beginning of this year, the spot price of wood pulp has recently rebounded at the bottom, and there is still a trend of recovery in the later stage of the cost side. According to iFinD statistics from Tonghuashun, the spot price of wood pulp has rebounded from the low point of 5224 yuan/ton in early May, and has risen to 5380 yuan/ton as of July 6th. In the second quarter of this year, there was a decline in raw material costs, which gave paper companies hope for profit recovery. The relevant person in charge of a paper company in Guangzhou told reporters, but due to the lower than expected recovery of terminal demand, the entire industry chain was under pressure. As a result, the decline in cost side actually left paper prices unsupported, ultimately leading to a continuous decline in paper prices. Several paper companies stated in an interview with reporters that with the stabilization and recovery of wood pulp prices, the prices of white cardboard products have seriously deviated from the product value, and there is a serious inversion between product prices and costs. Several paper traders have also stated that the current sales prices of white cardboard in the market are severely inverted compared to factory procurement prices. Therefore, both the upstream and midstream of the industrial chain believe that the current situation will endanger the healthy and orderly development of the industrial chain. The main reason for the weak performance of white card paper and related paper companies this year is still the sluggish terminal demand. Kong Xiangfen told reporters that currently, market demand is still in the off-season, and it is difficult to have a significant increase in short-term orders. However, the current price has fallen below the cost line, and the industry is in a negative profit state. In addition, the key influencing factor in the current market is insufficient demand, and even if paper prices continue to decline, the attractiveness of downstream purchases is not strong. Therefore, the market's willingness to stop the decline and stabilize is stronger than in the previous period. "Kong Xiangfen said, which is also the main reason why many white cardboard companies and distributors have joined hands to" shout up "this time, Sending a signal to the downstream of the industrial chain that paper prices should not fall again is also a manifestation of a supply-demand game. From the perspective of market supply and demand, since May, there has been new production capacity in the white cardboard market, and production has gradually increased. It is expected to continue in the second half of the year
Edit：Hou Wenzhe Responsible editor：WeiZe
Source：Securities Daily
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