Local rotten fields and rain do not hinder the overall situation of the grain market
2023-06-06
Recently, Henan has experienced rotten rain, causing some wheat to sprout and mold, which has attracted social attention. Some people are worried that this will affect the overall supply situation of the national grain market, and there are even rumors online that there have been instances of panic buying of flour in some places. In fact, China's food security is fully guaranteed, and this concern is not necessary. At present, the disaster is concentrated in the central and southern regions of Henan, mainly due to the sprouting of wheat that has entered the wax ripening period. From the current production situation disclosed in various regions, it can be seen that a bumper summer grain harvest is in sight in other major production areas. Anhui Province reported that the wheat area in the province is 42.916 million mu, an increase of 175000 mu compared to the previous year. The Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of Shandong Province stated that wheat in Shandong Province is growing well and a bumper harvest is in sight. According to the latest agricultural survey in Hebei Province, 33.771 million mu of wheat in the province is growing well, and machine harvesting is expected to begin on June 7th. The Shanxi Provincial Grain and Material Reserve Bureau predicts that the province's wheat production and purchase volume will increase year-on-year this year. Recent media reports on farmers in various regions have also shown that the situation in other major production areas is still good. Agricultural disasters do not necessarily mean disasters or crop failures. For Henan, not all wheat that has suffered from overcast rain has been affected or even lost. After entering the wax ripening period, the yield has basically formed, and the actual losses are closely related to the strength of remedial measures. Henan has formulated 10 response measures to strengthen agricultural machinery scheduling and emergency recovery, with a funding of 200 million yuan to support wheat mechanical drying, coordinate the opening of space to farmers for grain drying, and minimize disaster losses. To put it a step further, wheat that sprouts due to rain will indeed have an impact on its yield and quality. However, sprouted wheat that meets the national limit standards can be used as feed, and a few moldy wheat can also be used for industrial alcohol production. The essence of sunshine and rain is still the precious wealth of society. The biggest risk faced by agriculture is natural disasters, and striving for abundant harvests based on disaster resistance has been the norm in China's agriculture in recent years. The reason why China's grain production has repeatedly achieved abundant harvests is due to two factors that are indispensable: first, disaster reduction and increase in production, and second, balanced increase in production. The so-called disaster reduction and production increase refers to actively responding to various disasters. Agricultural production is a process of fighting against natural disasters, while modern agriculture is a process of achieving disaster resistance, loss reduction, disaster reduction, and increased production. The so-called balanced production increase refers to the pursuit of stable average yield per unit area from a large spatiotemporal perspective. Natural disasters do not depend on human will, but they also have their own patterns of occurrence. Often, there is a disaster in one place and no disaster in multiple places; When there is a disaster, there is no disaster; A poor harvest in one place leads to a bountiful harvest in many places. These cannot be separated from the support of agricultural technology and equipment. Some netizens' concerns are actually related to the international food market situation in the past two years. In recent years, due to factors such as the delay of the epidemic, economic downturn, and geopolitical conflicts, the international food market has experienced significant fluctuations, and the number of hungry people in some countries has continued to rise. Compared to this, China's grain prices are generally operating smoothly within a reasonable range, and the grain market has always maintained sufficient supply. From urban supermarkets to rural markets, "rice bags" are abundant and "vegetable baskets" are abundant. Specifically, for summer wheat, the national inventory is very abundant. In the past four years, there has been a continuous bumper harvest of summer grain, and the existing inventory is close to a year's consumption. Careful people will find that the price of flour has been steadily decreasing recently, which also reflects the sufficient guarantee of supply. From a larger perspective, China's grain market is expected to maintain long-term stability
Edit：Hou Wenzhe Responsible editor：WeiZe
Source：economic dairy
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