In the first five months, the local government borrowed over 3.5 trillion yuan, but where did the money go
2023-06-02
In order to stabilize investment and repay old debts, the scale of local public borrowing exceeded that of the same period last year. According to data from Anxin Securities Research Center and the Ministry of Finance, local governments have issued approximately 3.54 trillion yuan of bonds in the first five months of this year, an increase of approximately 6.6% year-on-year. Among them, the newly added bonds amounted to nearly 2.26 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 7.8%, and the refinanced bonds amounted to about 1.28 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 47%. It is not difficult to find that the fastest growth in local borrowing scale since the beginning of this year is through refinancing bonds to raise money. And refinancing bonds are used to repay the principal of maturing debts, that is, borrowing new to repay old. This year is the peak period for local government bond repayment, with an expected repayment amount of approximately 3.65 trillion yuan due this year. In recent years, due to the impact of the epidemic and other factors, the economy has declined, coupled with tax cuts and fee reductions, as well as the sluggish real estate and land markets, local fiscal revenue has been significantly impacted. However, repaying such a huge amount of debt still relies mainly on issuing refinancing bonds to borrow new and repay old ones, which alleviates the pressure on local debt repayment and is beneficial for preventing local government debt risks. According to data from the Ministry of Finance, in the first four months of this year, local government bonds repaid 791.6 billion yuan in principal upon maturity, of which 739.8 billion yuan was repaid by issuing refinancing bonds, accounting for 94%. Due to the short issuance period of local government bonds in previous years, which did not match the financing project term, the main principle of issuing refinancing bonds was to match the remaining term of the same project, solving the potential risk of term mismatch in some local government bond projects. This is also an important reason for the large scale of refinancing bond issuance. Therefore, in recent years, the term of local bond issuance has significantly extended. According to data from the Ministry of Finance, as of the end of April 2023, the average remaining maturity of local government bonds is 8.8 years, compared to 4.4 years in 2018. Since the beginning of this year, the money borrowed by local governments has not only been used to repay old debts, but also to invest in new major projects, which is conducive to driving stable investment growth. In the first five months of this year, a total of approximately 2.26 trillion yuan of newly issued bonds were issued. From the perspective of monthly issuance scale, the progress of bond issuance in the first quarter was relatively fast, and the issuance volume decreased in April and May. Overall, the pace of local bond issuance is relatively fast this year, but lower than last year. Since the beginning of this year, the main source of new bond financing has been the addition of special bonds. Among the newly added special bond quota of 3.8 trillion yuan this year, the issuance scale in the first five months accounted for half, nearly 1.9 trillion yuan. This money is mainly invested in major infrastructure construction projects. According to data from Anxin Securities Research Center, in the first five months of this year, approximately 48.5% of special bonds were invested in traditional infrastructure fields (transportation, municipal construction, and industrial park infrastructure construction), a slight decrease from 50.3% in 2022; The proportion of special bonds invested in affordable housing, old renovation, and shed renovation is about 15.2%, significantly increasing from 11.0% at the end of 2022; The proportion of support for the issuance of special bonds by small and medium-sized banks from January to May was about 6.3%, a significant increase from 1.5% at the end of last year. Special bonds are an important tool to drive the expansion of effective investment and stabilize the macro economy. With some economic indicators weakening since April, there has been increasing demand from the market for active fiscal policies. Several financial and tax experts told First Financial that the issuance of special bonds should be accelerated at present
Edit：Hou Wenzhe Responsible editor：WeiZe
Source：YiCai Net
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