Geometry of the Impact of "National VI B" on the Car Market
2023-05-17
The Ministry of Ecology and Environment, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Commerce, the General Administration of Customs, and the State Administration of Market Regulation recently jointly issued a notice on the implementation of the National VI Emission Standards for automobiles, proposing that from July 1, 2023, the national level will fully implement the 6b phase of the National VI Emission Standards (hereinafter referred to as "National VI B"). From the official release of the "Light Vehicle Pollutants and Measurement Methods (China Phase VI)" on December 23, 2016, to July 1, 2020, all light vehicles sold and registered should comply with the national VI A limit requirements. From July 1, 2023, all light vehicles sold and registered should comply with the national VI B limit requirements. The "complete version of the national VI emission standard" has been implemented. What impact will this bring to the automotive market? The overall impact is limited. From the perspective of the new car market, most industry associations, industry experts, and enterprise representatives have stated that the implementation of China VI B will not have a significant impact on the car market. Chen Shihua, Deputy Secretary General of the China Automobile Association, believes that currently, there are no major issues for the industry with the comprehensive implementation of the National VI Plan. Firstly, many car models have already completed the transformation of national VI B. At the same time, from the perspective of enterprise production, there is no technical difficulty. According to data from the China Automobile Association, since the implementation of the National VI Standard, the proportion of light vehicles in the National VI B model has exceeded 95%, and the market share of National VI B vehicles has exceeded 90%. Industry leading enterprises have also confirmed this data. GAC Group stated that currently, its production has all switched to the National VI b+RDE (Actual Driving Pollutant Emission Test) standard. At the technical level, there is also no difficulty. Great Wall Motor said that, in the 6th national level, it is required to upgrade technologies such as automobile engines and aftertreatment, such as the application of high-pressure electronic fuel injection system, GPF and new function strategy. Great Wall Motor has already completed the development and market switching of all models of G6b, and the technical bottlenecks and problems have been timely improved and solved in the project development process. Bosch, a leading component company, stated that implementing the National VI B standard has little impact on the research and development, production, and supply of component companies. Yan Jinghui, a member of the Expert Committee of the China Automobile Distribution Association, stated that several first tier cities in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen had already implemented the National VI B standard as early as July 1, 2020, and the implementation of the new regulations had minimal impact on the automobile market in these cities. Provinces, regions, and cities that are still implementing the National VI A plan have relatively large inventory of vehicles, which has been a focus of recent price reductions and inventory clearance. The decline in new car prices is bound to have an impact on second-hand car prices, which has also been experienced in previous emission standard switches. In addition, the increase in emission standards may have a certain impact on the lifting of restrictions on second-hand cars in the short term. This is because consumers do not pay for relatively low emission standard models, and at the same time, some Cities with stricter policy restrictions will also set certain thresholds for second-hand cars with relatively low emission standards Yan Jinghui said. As of the end of January 2023, the flexible adjustment transition period has exceeded 1.89 million inventory vehicles that do not meet RDE requirements, and over 2 million inventory vehicles including purchased components. Regarding the high inventory pressure, Xu Haidong, Deputy Chief Engineer of China Automobile Association, explained that the company has a transition period of 3 years, but the inventory has not yet been cleared
Edit：Hou Wenzhe Responsible editor：WeiZe
Source：economic dairy
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