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Economy

What signals will global central banks release as they purchase gold on a large scale?

2023-04-19   

In recent years, the central banks of various countries have started the "buy buy" mode to increase gold reserve. The global central bank's gold purchases reached a record high of 1136 tons in 2022, and this trend is still continuing in 2023, "said a report recently released by the World Gold Council. The report depicts the strong start of this year's central bank gold buying with data and cases: the Monetary Authority of Singapore bought 51.8 tons of gold in the first two months; Türkiye's central bank and India's central bank are also buying gold... It should be noted that the international gold price has fluctuated widely in recent years. However, regardless of price fluctuations, the pace of global central banks continuing to purchase gold has always moved forward, indicating that its underlying logic is not entirely the same as that of ordinary investors investing in gold. How should we understand it? A survey conducted by us in over 50 central banks worldwide in the first half of last year showed that 'performance during crisis periods',' hedging against inflation ', and' long-term preservation of assets' were the main driving factors for central banks to hold gold, "said Wang Lixin, CEO of the World Gold Council in China. According to him, in the aforementioned survey, 61% of the surveyed central banks expect global central banks to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months. As a special asset, gold, a shiny precious metal with multiple financial and commodity properties, has been widely used as a general equivalent for a considerable period of time in human history. Its characteristics of hedging and anti inflation are particularly favored. Therefore, although interest rates cannot be directly generated, in practice, most central banks around the world have a place for gold in their international reserves. Each country dynamically adjusts its international reserve portfolio allocation, including gold, according to actual needs, to ensure the safety, liquidity, and appreciation of its international reserve assets. In the past year, the smoke of gunpowder has spread in Russia and Ukraine, the geopolitical situation is tense, and global inflation has reached a new high in over 40 years. Driven by these two major factors, it is not surprising that central banks in various countries have reached a new peak in increasing their holdings of gold. In addition, some analysts believe that in addition to economic and geopolitical considerations, seeking diversification of foreign exchange reserves and reducing excessive dependence on the US dollar to cope with the instability of the international monetary system centered around the US dollar is also an important driving force for some central banks, especially those in emerging market economies, to increase their holdings of gold. After the 2008 international financial crisis, the Federal Reserve introduced quantitative easing policies and printed money recklessly, causing domestic crises to spread globally through the US dollar; Since last year, the Federal Reserve has aggressively raised interest rates and the US dollar has sharply appreciated, leading to devaluation of many countries' currencies, capital outflows, and rising debt service costs. Some countries have even fallen into currency or debt crises... After experiencing these crises, many countries have increased efforts to increase reserve assets such as gold and special drawing rights, promote diversification of foreign exchange reserve assets, and reduce their holdings of US bonds and promote bilateral currency agreements, Actively exploring the path of currency multipolarization. The data from the World Gold Council clearly shows the turning point of the changing trend of global gold reserve - in 2010, the global central banks and public institutions ended the previous 20 years of "net sales of gold" and started a new round of "net purchase" process. Central banks in various countries have been net buyers of gold for 13 consecutive years, including 2022. Currently, the international gold price has reached

Edit:Hou Wenzhe Responsible editor:WeiZe

Source:XinhuaNet

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