Fund demand has risen, and financial data in March exceeded expectations
2023-04-12
According to data released by the People's Bank of China on April 11th, RMB loans increased by 3.89 trillion yuan in March, an increase of 749.7 billion yuan year-on-year; The increase in social financing scale in March was 5.38 trillion yuan, an increase of 707.9 billion yuan compared to the same period last year; At the end of March, the balance of broad money (M2) was 281.46 trillion yuan, up 12.7% year on year, 0.2 percentage points lower than that at the end of last month, and 3 percentage points higher than that at the same period of last year. "The financial data in March was generally bright. The broad money (M2) continued to maintain a rapid growth rate, and the scale of social financing and RMB loans grew strongly, exceeding expectations. This shows that with the effect of the policy of stabilizing growth and promoting development in the early stage, market confidence has been significantly boosted, the demand for effective financing has picked up faster, and the macroeconomic recovery has become more stable." said Dong Ximiao, the chief researcher of China Merchants Association. Specifically, in March, RMB loans increased by 3.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 749.7 billion yuan year-on-year on a higher base. In the first quarter, RMB loans increased by 10.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.27 trillion yuan year-on-year, the highest in history. Dong Ximiao said that the effective financing needs of the residential sector are accelerating their recovery. In March, household loans increased by 1.24 trillion yuan, much higher than the 257.2 billion yuan in January and 208.1 billion yuan in February. Among them, short-term and medium to long-term loans to households increased by 609.4 billion yuan and 634.8 billion yuan respectively in March, consistent with the recent recovery of the real estate market and consumer market. This indicates that as the macroeconomic situation continues to improve, residents' work and income tend to stabilize, confidence and expectations have significantly recovered, and investment and consumption demand have shown a rebound trend. Wen Bin, Chief Economist of China Minsheng Bank, also stated that while the total credit volume continues to expand, the balance of credit expansion is also improving. On the one hand, the proportion of retail loans in new credit increased significantly in March, and the severe imbalance between public and retail loans has been optimized since last year; On the other hand, under the balance of regulatory guidance and economic restoration, credit allocation between regions is more balanced, and credit differentiation between institutions has also converged. In March, an additional 5.38 trillion yuan of social finance was added, exceeding market expectations. In the first quarter of 2023, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 14.53 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.47 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year, reaching a new historical high. The main driving factors for the new social finance in March were RMB loans and off balance sheet note financing invested in the real economy. The financing of government bonds and corporate bonds increased slightly year-on-year and month on month, and the social finance structure showed a characteristic of 'strong credit and weak bonds', "said Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst of Dongfang Jincheng. Liang Si, a researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, said that looking forward to the second quarter, with stable and positive economic development, the demand for real economy funds is expected to continue to remain strong, driving financial data to strengthen. However, it should be noted that residents' consumption motivation is still weak, and in the future, policies and measures should be actively optimized to effectively boost residents' consumption willingness and drive the economy to accelerate recovery. Dong Ximiao believes that the next step is to maintain the stability and continuity of macroeconomic policies, enhance the flexibility and accuracy of policy measures, continue to take resolute and powerful measures to boost market confidence and expectations, and accelerate the promotion of macroeconomic integration
Edit：He Chuanning Responsible editor：Su Suiyue
Source：Economic Information Daily
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