What signals do residents' willingness to save, consume, and invest in the first quarter reveal
2023-04-07
Recently, the People's Bank of China released a survey report on urban depositors in the first quarter of 2023, which showed that residents' willingness to save, consume, and invest showed a "one drop and two increases". Specifically, 58% of residents tend to save more, a decrease of 3.8 percentage points compared to the previous quarter; 23.2% of residents tend to consume more, an increase of 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous quarter; Residents who tend to invest more accounted for 18.8%, an increase of 3.3 percentage points compared to the previous quarter. Amidst the increasing intensity of economic recovery, confidence in all aspects is constantly being restored. As one of the three carriages driving economic growth, consumption has a lasting driving force on the economy. Restoring and expanding consumption is crucial to the overall situation, and the key is to identify and resolve conflicts, unblock "bottlenecks" and "difficulties", activate demand, enhance consumption capacity, improve consumption conditions, and fully unleash consumption potential. Recently, a series of measures to support consumption have been launched, such as using various new ideas and scenarios to enhance the consumption experience and stimulate the continuous release of consumption vitality, from live streaming of long and short videos by the Cultural and Tourism Bureau to experiencing tea and Hanfu on cruise ships. So, when asked about the projects that plan to increase expenses in the next three months, the option with the largest increase compared to the previous quarter is "tourism", which has significantly increased by 10.7 percentage points to 24%. From the perspective of online consumption, it is also commendable. Firstly, according to monitoring data from the National Postal Administration, as of 8:00 on April 6th, China's express delivery business volume reached 30 billion pieces this year, 99 days ahead of reaching 30 billion pieces in 2019 and 18 days ahead of 2022; Secondly, according to data released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing on April 6th, the China E-commerce Logistics Index in March 2023 was 108.3 points, an increase of 1.1 points from the previous month. The e-commerce logistics index is an important indicator that reflects the trend of online physical consumption among urban and rural residents. It can be expected that as the consumer market accelerates its recovery, the consumption potential will continue to be stimulated. At the same time, household savings will gradually return to normal, and the accumulated excess savings are expected to be transformed into new consumption drivers. The increase in residents' willingness to invest is more based on their confidence in economic growth. Since the beginning of this year, China's economy has shown a recovery trend, with multiple major economic indicators showing improvement, market expectations significantly improving, and the endogenous driving force of economic growth is strong. As Han Wenxiu, the deputy director in charge of daily work at the Office of the Central Committee of Finance and Economics, recently stated at the 2023 annual meeting of the China Development Forum, China's economy is rebounding just like the current spring flowers blooming and full of vitality. Throughout the year, it will present a good trend of accelerated growth, stable prices, sufficient employment, and basic balance of international payments. From the perspective of the capital market, China has continuously improved the multi-level capital market system, deepened the reform of the capital market, improved the functions of the capital market, and boosted market confidence in development. Especially with the implementation of the comprehensive registration system and the consolidation of the direct financing system in the capital market, the market price discovery and capital operation efficiency will be improved, and it is expected to introduce more incremental funds, thus improving the investment willingness and confidence of investors. (New News Agency)
Edit：Hou Wenzhe Responsible editor：WeiZe
Source：Securities Dairy
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