Interpretation: The purchasing manager index continued to expand in March
2023-03-31
Today, the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the China Purchasing Manager Index. Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician at the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, interpreted this. In March, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index was 51.9%, 0.7 percentage points lower than the previous month; The non manufacturing business activity index and the comprehensive PMI output index were 58.2% and 57.0% respectively, 1.9 and 0.6 percentage points higher than the previous month. The three major indexes have been in the expansion range for three consecutive months, and China's economic development is still stabilizing and recovering. 1、 The manufacturing purchasing managers' index continued to be in the boom zone in March. Affected by factors such as the high base last month, the manufacturing PMI fell somewhat, and the boom level remained at its highest level in nearly two years. Among the 21 industries surveyed, 13 had higher PMIs than last month. （1） Both production and demand continue to expand. With the accelerated recovery of the domestic economic cycle, manufacturing production and market demand have steadily rebounded. The production index and new order index were 54.6% and 53.6%, respectively, down 2.1 and 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, and are still at a relatively high level of recent prosperity. From the perspective of the industry, the two indexes of non-metallic mineral products, general equipment, special equipment, and automobile industries have both risen to 57.0% or above in a relatively high boom range, and the release of industry production and demand has accelerated. （2） The willingness of enterprises to purchase has increased. Driven by the rebound in production and market demand, corporate procurement activities have been relatively active recently, with a procurement volume index of 53.5%, the highest since December 2020; The import index is 50.9%, which has been in the expansion range for two consecutive months, and the import volume of raw materials for enterprise production continues to increase. From the perspective of the industry, the purchasing volume index and import index of upstream industries such as petroleum, coal and other fuel processing, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, and nonferrous metal smelting and rolling processing have significantly increased compared to the previous month. （3） PMI of enterprises of all sizes maintained expansion. The PMI of large enterprises was 53.6%, and the prosperity level was basically the same as that of last month. The production index and new order index were both located in a higher prosperity range of above 55.0%, with strong momentum for recovery and development. The PMI of small and medium-sized enterprises was 50.3% and 50.4%, respectively, with varying degrees of decline compared to the previous month, but both were in the boom zone for two consecutive months. （4） PMI in key industries operates stably. The PMI of the equipment manufacturing industry, high-tech manufacturing industry, high energy consumption industry, and consumer goods industry were 53.0%, 51.2%, 51.1%, and 51.9%, respectively, continuing to maintain an expansion trend. Among them, the PMI of the equipment manufacturing industry is 1.1 percentage points higher than the overall manufacturing industry, with a significant driving effect; The consumer goods industry's PMI has rebounded for three consecutive months, with the overall pace of expansion accelerating. （5） The market is expected to stabilize and improve. Recently, China's economy has maintained a momentum of recovery, with stable corporate confidence. The expected index of production and business activities is 55.5%, which continues to be located in a relatively high economic range. From the perspective of the industry, the expected index of production and operating activities in all industries surveyed has been in the boom zone for two consecutive months, with industries such as food and beverage refined tea, special equipment, railway, ship, aerospace equipment, and electrical and mechanical equipment ranking at 6
Edit：Hou Wenzhe Responsible editor：WeiZe
Source：economic dairy
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