After the "Little Spring Festival" in the housing market, what's the next step?
2023-03-22
In 2022, the domestic residential sector increased deposits by 17.84 trillion yuan, a significant increase of 80.20% compared to the total increase in 2021. The excess savings in the residential sector mainly come from spillovers in the consumption and real estate sectors, as well as the redemption of bank financing at the end of 2022. Can such large-scale excess savings be released in the future? Which areas will it flow to? From the perspective of the real estate market, under the influence of factors such as the gradual implementation of the "guaranteed housing" special loan, the reduction of the housing provident fund loan interest rate, and the establishment of a dynamic adjustment mechanism for the first housing loan interest rate policy, it is expected to further release reasonable housing demand and boost residents' willingness to buy houses in the future. On the other hand, the current demand and supply momentum in the real estate market is still relatively weak, and the possibility of large-scale flow of excess savings into the real estate market in the short term is not high. Under the superposition of the above factors, the scale of excess savings flowing back into the real estate market may be relatively limited. From the perspective of the consumer market, although various consumption data have performed well since the beginning of this year, considering the stage independence of residents' consumption behavior, the transformation from excess savings to excess consumption is limited. At the same time, the structural characteristics of consumption are more obvious. The recovery momentum of the contact service industry is strong, but the elasticity of commodity consumption, especially mid and low end products, is limited, and its support for consumption data is not strong in the short term. As the consumption scenario gradually recovers and economic fundamentals improve, it is expected to drive more preventive savings to be converted into consumption. From the perspective of the financial market, in 2022, the volatility of the financial market was significant, and some investors were affected by this, resulting in lower risk appetite, and they invested more funds in low-risk products. As the capital market recovers and various products in the financial market continue to be enriched and improved, investors' choices become more diverse, and the proportion of defensive deposits and low-risk investments will decline. However, considering the investment style of Chinese residents and the low risk products themselves are also an important part of asset allocation, such products will still occupy a significant portion of the market in the future. It is worth noting that at this stage, various types of bank financing can meet the needs of residents with different risk preferences, and the ability of bank financing to absorb excess savings will gradually strengthen. For funds with strong liquidity preferences and the pursuit of safety, current bank cash wealth management products not only ensure liquidity and safety advantages, but also have higher returns. The bank wealth management market has stabilized rapidly after experiencing the risk of redemption last year, and various new products catering to the risk stability and income needs of residents have been launched. Although the scale of the bank wealth management market will not rebound rapidly in the short term, the overall scale is expected to return to the level of mid-2022 after the second half of this year. For the "excess savings" that have already formed, accelerating the transformation to investment and consumption still needs to further improve supporting measures. For example, we will increase the income of urban and rural residents through multiple channels, further improve the construction of the social security system, prudently handle issues such as old-age care, medical care, and education, and improve residents' consumption expectations and investment willingness. At the same time, actively create new consumption scenarios, innovate consumption formats and models, encourage enterprises to improve their products, meet market demand, promote consumption upgrading, and provide more products or services that truly meet the needs of residents. (Liao Xinshe)
Edit：Hou Wenzhe Responsible editor：WeiZe
Source：economic dairy
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