Goldman Sachs: Increase China's GDP growth rate and allocate A shares and Hong Kong shares
2023-02-22
Yesterday, after three years, Goldman Sachs again held a large-scale offline global macro forum in Hong Kong, China. Shan Hui, chief economist of Goldman Sachs in China, said that the forecast for China's economic growth in 2023 rose from 3% last year to 5.5% this year. Among them, the most important contribution to economic growth is residential consumption, which is expected to grow by 8.5% this year. Liu Jinjin, chief equity strategist at Goldman Sachs China, said that China's A-share market after the optimization of epidemic prevention and control policies has attracted overseas investors extensively. In the past three months, the proportion of China's equity positions of Goldman Sachs' hedge fund clients in its global equity positions has rebounded from 7% to 14%, which has been at a record high. He said that Goldman Sachs had allocated A shares and Hong Kong shares. At the same time, from the perspective of capital inflow from the north, the net inflow of capital from the north has reached 22 billion US dollars in the past two months, while the net inflow of capital from the north has only reached 13 billion US dollars in the whole year of last year, that is, the amount of capital inflow in the past two months has exceeded the total amount of the whole year of last year, reflecting that overseas investors are optimistic about A-shares. Increase China's GDP growth forecast by Shan Hui, the chief economist of Goldman Sachs China, to the point, and directly increase China's GDP growth forecast to 5.5%. According to flash analysis, the biggest negative impact on China's economy last year was the epidemic. After the optimization of prevention and control policies this year, it is expected that China's quarter-on-quarter performance may reach a high point in the second quarter, and China will have a good economic growth. Shan Hui believes that consumption in the "Troika" will be the main contributor to China's economic growth. On the one hand, since the fourth quarter of 2022, China's economy has had output gaps in all sectors except agriculture, that is, the level of economic activity is low, so there is room to recover; On the other hand, looking at the previous consumption of the residential sector, both commodity consumption and service consumption were relatively low - at a low point in the fourth quarter of 2022, so there is also a lot of room for recovery this year. Shan Hui said that the tracking of the number of tourists and consumption on various important holidays in China can find that the number of tourists on New Year's Day in 2023 is very low, accounting for only 35% of the same period in 2019 before the epidemic, but the Spring Festival in 2023 has a strong rebound. However, the consumption during the Spring Festival is only 70% of the same period in 2019, so the growth rate this year will have a relatively bright response. With regard to China's inflation, Shinhui believes that since the release of the epidemic in major global economies, inflation has risen, especially in core inflation or service industry inflation. However, the difference in China is that China's pork cycle and energy price rise are not the same as last year. After decomposition, core inflation or service industry inflation will rise, while the overall CPI does not have a great inflation risk. Recently, the news of foreign investors increasing their positions in A shares has also been confirmed by Goldman Sachs. Liu Jinjin said that after the Spring Festival this year, after communicating with some overseas investors, they were optimistic about China's GDP growth. On the one hand, China's growth base was low last year. From the perspective of GDP growth, China is a bright spot in the world and will have a significant rebound, while the economy of major overseas economies may be in a downward trend this year; On the other hand, the past two years
Edit：Hou Wenzhe Responsible editor：WeiZe
Source：Securities Dairy
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