The annual meeting of the 2023 World Economic Forum (Winter Davos Forum) recently released the 2023 Global Risk Report, saying that the cost of living crisis is the biggest short-term risk facing the world in the next two years. The "cost of living crisis" refers to a series of problems caused by high global inflation, which leads to rising prices, and household income does not keep pace with rising prices. There has been a cyclical macroeconomic performance in European and American countries. When high inflation, high interest rate and low development level are combined, they will turn from prosperity to recession. High inflation and low development are the main causes of economic recession. The indicator of inflation level is inflation rate, and the indicator of development level can be GDP per capita, but the unemployment rate is generally used as the indicator in European and American countries. Take the United States economy as an example. At present, the United States is at a turning point. On the one hand, the inflation rate in the United States is high, which is partly due to the rise of global energy and food prices caused by the Russian-Uzbekistan conflict, but also due to the subjective policy mistakes of the United States in breaking away from globalization, and more importantly, due to the impact of economic cyclical factors. On the other hand, the current unemployment rate in the United States is not very high, indicating that the low level of development has not yet arrived. However, the contradiction between wage level and inflation rate is prominent, and with the increase of interest rate and capital cost of the Federal Reserve, it will ultimately affect the operation of physical enterprises. In other words, it is difficult for the United States to maintain a low unemployment rate in 2023. If the United States business cycle is divided into four stages: recovery, overheating, stagflation and recession, then the United States is currently in the stage of gradual transition from overheating to stagflation. In the first half of 2023, inflation in the United States will continue to be at a high level, and enterprises will face difficulties in business operation. It is inevitable that the unemployment rate will rise. It is expected that the economic recession will occur in the second half of 2023. This is not an economist's worry. Recently, people in many fields, including former officials of American financial institutions, investment institutions, American industry associations and executives of medium-sized enterprises, generally said that the American economy will enter a recession this year. In addition, due to the lag effect of monetary policy, Americans may suffer "a lot of pain" in the first half of 2023. The economic community has basically reached a consensus on the global high inflation rate and low development rate in 2023. The combination of high prices and low wages is the "cost of living crisis". How to fight the "cost of living crisis"? In fact, there are only two problems to be solved: one is to effectively reduce inflation without damaging economic fundamentals, namely employment; The second is to reduce the unemployment rate and raise the income level without boosting inflation. These two goals are inextricable in traditional economic theory, but in the past few years, the Chinese economy has shown its own solution: first, strengthen the new economic momentum. The new momentum can be divided into two parts: one is the new economy, especially the Internet platform economy. The information economy itself will not aggravate social inflation. For example, online taxi drivers and takeaway workers, which belong to the service level, will not increase resource consumption, but can provide economic growth. The other part is the goods with new property rights. There is a saying that real estate absorbs money, thus reducing the inflation rate. The correct direction of this statement should be that property goods absorb currency liquidity, such as the popularity of intellectual property rights such as patents and works of art, which can absorb currency liquidity and reduce inflation pressure.
Edit：wangwenting Responsible editor：xiaomai
Source：china.cn
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